I think Bagley’s key performance indicators will be great. Offensive rating, rebounding percentages, maybe block percentages once he gets more sample size. He’s not a dumb ball stopper on offense, which was my main concern. Maybe has potential as a passer/playmaker.
Blake Griffin and Aaron Gordon seem like the best examples for him to follow. Bagley could be a supersized version of them. Assuming Gordon’s early season shooting isn’t a total absurd fluke, these guys both apparently worked their asses off to become decent enough 3pt and FT shooters at an NBA all-star level. Bagley has that kind of ceiling (top 10 player in the NBA) but he’s not going to resemble them at Duke. The version who makes 30% 3pt and 65% FT should be good enough for Duke, given the reasonable assumptions that he dominates the boards and shoots 65-70% from 2.
HS scouts are apparently blind. I don't know why they thought Bagley would be anything more than a putbacks and roll man center on a good college team, let alone a LeBron type. What we are getting, though, is a great role player at the center position on offense. Offensive rebounds and dunks. Not sure if that's good enough to be a #1 pick. Doesn't matter much to Duke.
Defense is what it is. We've seen freshman frontcourt players fail at defense for several seasons now under Duke coaching. I think it's unreasonable to expect anything better than very bad defensive awareness out of Bagley, throwing in some highlight blocks that go out of bounds. If our bigs defend at the usual Duke level, at least Bagley has the length and athleticism to sometimes recover from terrible positioning and reaction times.