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Duke has begun to improve its defense, just in time for a colossal showdown with Virginia.
PITTSBURGH
Saturday, January 20, 4:00pm ET, ACC Network/WatchESPN
at WAKE FOREST
Tuesday, January 23, 9:00pm ET, ACC Network Extra/WatchESPN
Kenpom rankings:
90 overall
63 offense
132 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, Wake 79 (Duke 83%)
This is a rematch of a game Duke dominated 10 days earlier. Wake still has the shooting to beat anyone on any given day. Wake still doesn't guard 3s. Of course, this time at "The Joel" could be different, but ever since Duke looked pathetic in the photo above, when freshman Jeff Teague and sophomore Ish Smith were at Wake, Duke has gone 6-2 at Wake and 15-2 against Wake overall.
One of those two losses was by the infamous 2014 Duke team, featuring Josh Hairston, losers to Mercer. They allowed a 17-0 run by Wake during the final six minutes of the game. The 17-0 run should not be confused with Wake's 19-2 run two years earlier against the also infamous 2012 Duke team, also featuring Josh Hairston, losers to Lehigh. Stomping on a mediocre opponent in front of a hostile crowd would go a long way toward showing Duke can do the same in March, unlike 2014 and 2012.
VIRGINIA
Saturday, January 27, 2:00pm ET, CBS
Kenpom rankings:
3 overall
29 offense
1 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 70, Virginia 68 (Duke 57%)
This is the game of the season for both Duke and Virginia, and arguably for all of college basketball. The winner will control their own destiny for the South 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and will have a chance to catch Villanova for #1 overall.
No pair of elite programs presents a more compelling clash of styles.
It's easy to forget how great Virginia has been over the past five seasons, because they're better known for their consistent postseason failures and losses to Duke. All the analytics and logical reasoning in the world can be refuted by an eye tester simply saying "Virginia."
#4 on Kenpom in 2014, 6 in 2015, 4 in 2016, 12 in 2017, and now 3. Sweet Sixteen loss, Second Round loss, Elite Eight loss (as a 1-seed against a 10-seed), Second Round loss. 1-4 against Duke. Horrific.
Tony Bennett's Virginia has left rational fans scrambling for answers to explain why computers overrate them relative to their performance on the biggest stages. Due to the nature of a single-elimination tournament, Virginia will probably fail again this March, and people will again wonder why this program is the equivalent of JJ Redick's college career.
Theory 1: Virginia's snail tempo leads to lower scores, which makes luck more important in deciding games, which makes Virginia more prone to upsets.
Virginia is working on its second straight season of being the slowest team in the nation. By contrast, Duke generally adapts its tempo to its personnel each season, and this season, Duke is #35 in possessions per game. In your average Duke game, each team will get 13 more possessions than in your average Virginia game.
Virginia will try to turn every possession into a halfcourt slog. Duke will try to run and prevent Virginia from setting up their famous defense. Duke's eFG is an impressive 58% on non-transition possessions, but it's a ridiculous 69% on transition possessions.
Can Duke win the tempo battle? Possibly, but it's not clear this would even help. Virginia Tech, with the #42 tempo, was able to speed up Virginia. West Virginia, with the #37 tempo, was not. Virginia Tech was demolished by Virginia. West Virginia handed Virginia their only loss.
Theory 2: Virginia's defense is unreliable and can be exposed by a team that gets hot from 3.
Everyone gets the gist of Virginia's defense by now. The paint is impenetrable. Feel free to take outside jumpers. Their defensive efficiency the past five seasons has been #4, 2, 7, 2, and now 1. Their prevention of 3pt attempts has been sub-200 each year.
Duke is known for having the shooters to exploit Virginia's defense, but not this year. While Duke is still shooting well from 3, they haven't been taking nearly as many as usual - #265 3pt attempt rate would be the lowest ranking in Duke's Kenpom history.
We can assume Virginia will force Trevon Duval and Grayson Allen to take open jumpers. Allen is a broken 20% from 3 in ACC play. Duval is 26% on the season. This game could be decided by whether either of these guys can make a shot. For once, Virginia's defense could actually be the Kryptonite to Duke's offense, resulting in a matchup involving a great offense and a great defense trying to do what they do best.
Theory 3: Virginia's talent just doesn't hold up.
There are two consensus top 50 recruits on Virginia's roster: Kyle Guy (#35) and Ty Jerome (#45). There are no consensus top 25 recruits. Virginia has never had the talent of an elite program under Bennett, and this is partly by design.
Bennett rarely offers blue chippers or one-and-dones. Perhaps he's finding inefficiencies in the recruiting market for defensively gifted players, or perhaps he hates dealing with entitled kids. Maybe he's just a bad recruiter. Whatever the reason, Virginia ends up with very little NBA talent each year, despite the quality of the school and the program's performance.
Duke, of course, gets the best talent. There's minimal continuity in the starting lineup. This matchup, at its most basic level, comes down to Duke's overwhelming talent trying to impose its superiority on a bunch of "scrappy"/"gritty" upperclassmen who have been coached up as a cohesive unit.
Virginia's offense doesn't beat itself, but it doesn't do much to beat the opponent, either.
Virginia is a poor offensive rebounding team (#202 rate) that doesn't make mistakes (#10 turnover rate) and doesn't get to the line (#317 FT attempt rate). Most Virginia possessions end on their first field goal attempt. Make them miss that one, and there's not much Virginia can do to scrape together more points.
Virginia's workhorses are 6-2 sophomore Kyle Guy and 6-7 freshman De'Andre Hunter. Each has a usage rate over 24%. Neither is particularly efficient. Guy is a good shooter from everywhere and limits his turnovers, but he's the embodiment of Virginia's offensive issues as a whole - extremely poor at getting to the line, very little rebounding. He also doesn't like to pass. Hunter is simply not great yet.
Virginia's most efficient player has been 6-5 senior Devon Hall (#0 pictured above). Hall's progression as a player is the ideal that Bennett seems to strive for. Hall's usage rate and offensive rating, season by season at Virginia: 14%/90, 15%/100, 19%/106, 21%/129 (current). Hall's 3pt% and FT%, season by season: 33%/46%, 33%/77%, 37%/78%, 47%/92% (current). Like with Justin Anderson at Virginia a few years ago, there may be some flukiness in Hall's senior leap, and he may come down to earth over the final stretch of his career. As of now, he's one of the best players in the ACC.
NOTRE DAME
Monday, January 29, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
25 overall
32 offense
38 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 83, Notre Dame 74 (Duke 81%)
It wouldn't be simple or quick to analyze this team without Bonzie Colson. Notre Dame losing Colson probably has a bigger impact than Duke losing any two of its players at the same time.
Notre Dame has performed fairly well without Colson, and Duke could certainly find a way to lose this game. However, Colson was playing like a First Team All-American before his injury and was taking on a huge burden in minutes and usage. His replacements have been the likes of John Mooney, Austin Torres and Elijah Burns, who are about as good as they sound.
The Vegas line should be significantly higher than the Kenpom projected margin, since Kenpom does not account for injuries.
at ST. JOHN'S
Saturday, February 3, 12:00pm ET, FOX
Madison Square Garden, New York
Kenpom rankings:
78 overall
116 offense
51 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 88, St. John's 77 (Duke 81%)
St. John's began the season #51 overall on Kenpom and have gradually sank. Heading into their upcoming game at Georgetown, they have lost seven straight, and they could realistically be on an 11-game losing streak heading into the Duke game.
Chris Mullin (pictured above) has improved the program from the ugly depths of his first season as coach, when St. John's finished 8-24 and #211 on Kenpom, but they're not at a level to embarrass Duke at MSG. Duke's future pros tend to give their best effort and thrive there.
St. John's is terrible at everything except protecting the ball on offense, taking it away on defense, making free throws and protecting the rim. Their respectable efficiency is due entirely to their excellence at those four things. On offense, Duke should be able to dominate on the boards even if they struggle to make shots inside. Nothing St. John's does on offense should cause problems for Duke's defense, as long as it doesn't revert to its outrageously bad form from the past six seasons.
PITTSBURGH
Saturday, January 20, 4:00pm ET, ACC Network/WatchESPN
at WAKE FOREST
Tuesday, January 23, 9:00pm ET, ACC Network Extra/WatchESPN
Kenpom rankings:
90 overall
63 offense
132 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, Wake 79 (Duke 83%)
This is a rematch of a game Duke dominated 10 days earlier. Wake still has the shooting to beat anyone on any given day. Wake still doesn't guard 3s. Of course, this time at "The Joel" could be different, but ever since Duke looked pathetic in the photo above, when freshman Jeff Teague and sophomore Ish Smith were at Wake, Duke has gone 6-2 at Wake and 15-2 against Wake overall.
One of those two losses was by the infamous 2014 Duke team, featuring Josh Hairston, losers to Mercer. They allowed a 17-0 run by Wake during the final six minutes of the game. The 17-0 run should not be confused with Wake's 19-2 run two years earlier against the also infamous 2012 Duke team, also featuring Josh Hairston, losers to Lehigh. Stomping on a mediocre opponent in front of a hostile crowd would go a long way toward showing Duke can do the same in March, unlike 2014 and 2012.
VIRGINIA
Saturday, January 27, 2:00pm ET, CBS
Kenpom rankings:
3 overall
29 offense
1 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 70, Virginia 68 (Duke 57%)
This is the game of the season for both Duke and Virginia, and arguably for all of college basketball. The winner will control their own destiny for the South 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and will have a chance to catch Villanova for #1 overall.
No pair of elite programs presents a more compelling clash of styles.
It's easy to forget how great Virginia has been over the past five seasons, because they're better known for their consistent postseason failures and losses to Duke. All the analytics and logical reasoning in the world can be refuted by an eye tester simply saying "Virginia."
#4 on Kenpom in 2014, 6 in 2015, 4 in 2016, 12 in 2017, and now 3. Sweet Sixteen loss, Second Round loss, Elite Eight loss (as a 1-seed against a 10-seed), Second Round loss. 1-4 against Duke. Horrific.
Tony Bennett's Virginia has left rational fans scrambling for answers to explain why computers overrate them relative to their performance on the biggest stages. Due to the nature of a single-elimination tournament, Virginia will probably fail again this March, and people will again wonder why this program is the equivalent of JJ Redick's college career.
Theory 1: Virginia's snail tempo leads to lower scores, which makes luck more important in deciding games, which makes Virginia more prone to upsets.
Virginia is working on its second straight season of being the slowest team in the nation. By contrast, Duke generally adapts its tempo to its personnel each season, and this season, Duke is #35 in possessions per game. In your average Duke game, each team will get 13 more possessions than in your average Virginia game.
Virginia will try to turn every possession into a halfcourt slog. Duke will try to run and prevent Virginia from setting up their famous defense. Duke's eFG is an impressive 58% on non-transition possessions, but it's a ridiculous 69% on transition possessions.
Can Duke win the tempo battle? Possibly, but it's not clear this would even help. Virginia Tech, with the #42 tempo, was able to speed up Virginia. West Virginia, with the #37 tempo, was not. Virginia Tech was demolished by Virginia. West Virginia handed Virginia their only loss.
Theory 2: Virginia's defense is unreliable and can be exposed by a team that gets hot from 3.
Everyone gets the gist of Virginia's defense by now. The paint is impenetrable. Feel free to take outside jumpers. Their defensive efficiency the past five seasons has been #4, 2, 7, 2, and now 1. Their prevention of 3pt attempts has been sub-200 each year.
Duke is known for having the shooters to exploit Virginia's defense, but not this year. While Duke is still shooting well from 3, they haven't been taking nearly as many as usual - #265 3pt attempt rate would be the lowest ranking in Duke's Kenpom history.
We can assume Virginia will force Trevon Duval and Grayson Allen to take open jumpers. Allen is a broken 20% from 3 in ACC play. Duval is 26% on the season. This game could be decided by whether either of these guys can make a shot. For once, Virginia's defense could actually be the Kryptonite to Duke's offense, resulting in a matchup involving a great offense and a great defense trying to do what they do best.
Theory 3: Virginia's talent just doesn't hold up.
There are two consensus top 50 recruits on Virginia's roster: Kyle Guy (#35) and Ty Jerome (#45). There are no consensus top 25 recruits. Virginia has never had the talent of an elite program under Bennett, and this is partly by design.
Bennett rarely offers blue chippers or one-and-dones. Perhaps he's finding inefficiencies in the recruiting market for defensively gifted players, or perhaps he hates dealing with entitled kids. Maybe he's just a bad recruiter. Whatever the reason, Virginia ends up with very little NBA talent each year, despite the quality of the school and the program's performance.
Duke, of course, gets the best talent. There's minimal continuity in the starting lineup. This matchup, at its most basic level, comes down to Duke's overwhelming talent trying to impose its superiority on a bunch of "scrappy"/"gritty" upperclassmen who have been coached up as a cohesive unit.
Virginia's offense doesn't beat itself, but it doesn't do much to beat the opponent, either.
Virginia is a poor offensive rebounding team (#202 rate) that doesn't make mistakes (#10 turnover rate) and doesn't get to the line (#317 FT attempt rate). Most Virginia possessions end on their first field goal attempt. Make them miss that one, and there's not much Virginia can do to scrape together more points.
Virginia's workhorses are 6-2 sophomore Kyle Guy and 6-7 freshman De'Andre Hunter. Each has a usage rate over 24%. Neither is particularly efficient. Guy is a good shooter from everywhere and limits his turnovers, but he's the embodiment of Virginia's offensive issues as a whole - extremely poor at getting to the line, very little rebounding. He also doesn't like to pass. Hunter is simply not great yet.
Virginia's most efficient player has been 6-5 senior Devon Hall (#0 pictured above). Hall's progression as a player is the ideal that Bennett seems to strive for. Hall's usage rate and offensive rating, season by season at Virginia: 14%/90, 15%/100, 19%/106, 21%/129 (current). Hall's 3pt% and FT%, season by season: 33%/46%, 33%/77%, 37%/78%, 47%/92% (current). Like with Justin Anderson at Virginia a few years ago, there may be some flukiness in Hall's senior leap, and he may come down to earth over the final stretch of his career. As of now, he's one of the best players in the ACC.
NOTRE DAME
Monday, January 29, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
25 overall
32 offense
38 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 83, Notre Dame 74 (Duke 81%)
It wouldn't be simple or quick to analyze this team without Bonzie Colson. Notre Dame losing Colson probably has a bigger impact than Duke losing any two of its players at the same time.
Notre Dame has performed fairly well without Colson, and Duke could certainly find a way to lose this game. However, Colson was playing like a First Team All-American before his injury and was taking on a huge burden in minutes and usage. His replacements have been the likes of John Mooney, Austin Torres and Elijah Burns, who are about as good as they sound.
The Vegas line should be significantly higher than the Kenpom projected margin, since Kenpom does not account for injuries.
at ST. JOHN'S
Saturday, February 3, 12:00pm ET, FOX
Madison Square Garden, New York
Kenpom rankings:
78 overall
116 offense
51 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 88, St. John's 77 (Duke 81%)
St. John's began the season #51 overall on Kenpom and have gradually sank. Heading into their upcoming game at Georgetown, they have lost seven straight, and they could realistically be on an 11-game losing streak heading into the Duke game.
Chris Mullin (pictured above) has improved the program from the ugly depths of his first season as coach, when St. John's finished 8-24 and #211 on Kenpom, but they're not at a level to embarrass Duke at MSG. Duke's future pros tend to give their best effort and thrive there.
St. John's is terrible at everything except protecting the ball on offense, taking it away on defense, making free throws and protecting the rim. Their respectable efficiency is due entirely to their excellence at those four things. On offense, Duke should be able to dominate on the boards even if they struggle to make shots inside. Nothing St. John's does on offense should cause problems for Duke's defense, as long as it doesn't revert to its outrageously bad form from the past six seasons.
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