With one day to go, this game has not been postponed or canceled yet, so I decided to spend some time looking at FSU stats. Digging through the FSU sports-reference page on a toilet was my first act of 2021.
FSU has fallen quite a bit on Kenpom since starting at #19. They're at #32 after a string of three terrible results: a home loss by 12 to #94 UCF, a home win by only 13 over #220 Gardner Webb and, most recently, a loss by 10 at #18 Clemson. This team is probably a middle seed NCAA Tournament team, but it's possible they're much worse than that. Hard to tell in this early in a season with so few games and so much interruption, and so few people analyzing college basketball in COVID times generally.
After losing the 4th and 11th overall picks in the draft from last year's team (Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell), and losing a late 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick the year before (
Mfiondu Kabengele and Terance Mann), FSU is not stacked with talent this season. They have only three RSCI top 100 recruits: freshman Scottie Barnes (#5 RSCI), senior MJ Walker (#24) and sophomore Balsa Koprivica (#64). Barnes is projected lottery or mid-1st one-and-done, Walker is projected 2nd round and no one else is on consensus draft boards.
Of course, FSU has a gigantic man from Senegal on their roster. He's a freshman and he hardly plays, though. Of course, FSU also has two other gigantic men on their roster. One of those is another freshman who hardly plays. The other is the aforementioned Koprivica, whose numbers have been impressive in limited minutes--he plays about half the game. Great defensive rebounder, merely good offensive rebounder, good shot blocker without being too foul prone, no 3PT range, not a terrible FT shooter. He doesn't force any matchup considerations.
The rest of FSU's 9-man rotation is entirely wing-sized players. They aren't sending out a bunch of giants this season, but their rotation is certainly not small. Their two smallest guys are 6-4 and 6-5, and the rest are 6-6 to 6-9. This would be a perfect game for Wendell Moore to make an impact and lead his teammates in manliness, if only he weren't so useless at every skill involved in the sport of basketball.
Everyone's preconceived notions about FSU's defense are true for this season. They protect the rim and contest shots in the paint ferociously, with the downside of giving up open 3s, not boxing out, and fouling a lot. This would be a perfect game for Joey Baker to remember how to do the one thing he has ever been expected to do.
On offense, FSU's most important player is Walker. He's shooting 93% FT and 38% 3PT this season, and this isn't necessarily fluky given his improvement as a shooter over his career. He's getting to the line a lot, but he's also turning it over a lot while getting to the rim. He has always been bad at finishing. The primary goal for Duke's defense should be to limit Walker's FT attempts. He went 12/12 FT in 30 minutes in FSU's win against Florida. In the past two bad results for FSU, Walker has had 4 total FT attempts.
Barnes has been awful, and his stock will drop out of the 1st round if his performance continues down this path. Good passer and scorer inside the arc, active defender, but a Wendell Moore-caliber shooter (42% FT, 28% 3PT).
Duke will probably be favored in this game, despite oldhead Duke fans having no faith in Duke winning.
