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Tuesday, December 29, 8:00pm ET, ACC Network
Coming off Duke's first win over a top 250 Kenpom team, the whole world is asking, "Is Duke basketball back?!" Duke has a chance to move further in the right direction against Kenpom #73 Pitt. This game, if it is played, should be interesting to Duke fans with an eye toward a post-Coach K future. The coaching philosophy of the most likely successor will be on display by Pitt.
Jeff Capel took over at Pitt after they went 0-18 in the ACC in 2018, and now he has COVID-19. Including this season, Capel has never had Pitt in the top 200 in either taking 3s on offense or preventing 3s on defense. In his prior head coaching stint - five seasons at Oklahoma - only once did he have a team in the top 100 in either category. His track record suggests he's an old-school coach who doesn't adhere to the analytics trend of treating 3s as king.
Capel's approach can certainly succeed in the college game if he has great talent, especially now that shooting-deprived players who are great at everything else are far less likely to be scooped up by the NBA. Duke fans don't need to look farther than a few miles down the road to find a program that has arguably been the most successful of the century, all while relying on seniors and juniors who often can't shoot but are bigger, stronger and more talented than the competition (though they rarely amount to anything in the NBA). Ironically, if Capel is indeed the successor, the next 10-20 years of Duke basketball may look a lot like the past 10-20 years of UNC basketball, which Duke fans have mocked as an inferior brand.
To be fair, Capel has not been on the embarrassing Charles Barkley or Phil Jackson level in adapting to the new era. There are some encouraging signs at Pitt. Their starting lineup is made of sophomores and juniors who were chosen by Capel, and there's a decent chance they're going to be contending for a strong seed in the NCAA Tournament with another year of development. Here's Pitt's lineup with each player's 247 composite recruiting ranking:
PG Xavier Johnson, junior, #243
SG Ithiel Horton, sophomore, NR
SF Au'Diese Toney, junior, #117
PF Justin Champagnie, sophomore, #248
C Karim Coulibaly, sophomore, #237
Pitt's only top 100 recruit is John Hugley, a freshman center who plays 13 mpg. It's fair to question why Capel isn't landing better recruits, but Duke fans should also be impressed by the development of players who weren't ACC-caliber recruits coming out of high school. A roster with talent like this shouldn't be expected to be top 100 on Kenpom.
Champagnie is an undersized forward (6-5) who's roughly a trillion times better than Wendell Moore. He's not much of a threat from 3 yet, and he may never be, but he's an efficient scorer inside, a smart passer who rarely turns the ball over and a great rebounder for any size. Capel has turned Champagnie into a highly positive player (9.8 BPM) despite his limitations.
Johnson is a flawed guard who regressed as a sophomore but seems to have figured out important things to start his junior year. He's a brand new analytics-friendly player; a horrifying 39% of his shots were from midrange as a sophomore, whereas only 10% of his shots have been from midrange this season. Hopefully, Capel played a big role in forcing that change; turning midrange attempts into 3pt attempts has been the key factor in Johnson's offensive rating rising from 95 to 113. Johnson's most impressive stat this season is his 42% assist rate to go with a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio.
Duke should win this game. However, it wouldn't be crazy for Duke fans to somewhat root for an impressive Pitt performance featuring solid defense inside and a barrage of 3s and dunks.
