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Bracketology

Besides the second round match-up I actually don't mind this bracket, but that winner of Wisconsin/Kentucky scares the shit out me. But I guess no team has ever won it all without facing a few challenges.
 
Yeah, that would be horrible. Kansas is very beatable but I doubt we'd get that far.


ETA: "Very" before beatable after I just saw they lost to TCU. WTF?
 
Anyone got a link to a bracket that projects future results in creating the bracket? There used to be a good one but I think the guys behind it stopped wasting their life away on college basketball a year or two ago.
 
Here are the remaining schedules for all legitimate 1-seed contenders, listed in order of current selection committee standing based on arbitrary personal judgment, along with my semi-educated guesses at W-L records in the remaining games:

Michigan (5-3)
at Wisconsin
at Michigan State
vs Penn State
vs Illinois
at Penn State
vs Michigan State
at Purdue
vs Indiana

Duke (7-2)
at Boston College
vs North Carolina
at Maryland
at Virginia Tech
vs Boston College
at Virginia
vs Miami
vs Virginia Tech
at North Carolina

Arizona (6-2)
vs California
at Colorado
at Utah
vs Washington
vs Washington State
at Southern Cal
at UCLA
vs Arizona State

Florida (8-1)
vs Mississippi State
vs Kentucky
at Auburn
at Missouri
vs Arkansas
at Tennessee
vs Alabama
vs Vanderbilt
at Kentucky

Indiana (5-3)
at Ohio State
vs Nebraska
vs Purdue
at Michigan State
at Minnesota
vs Iowa
vs Ohio State
at Michigan

Miami (7-2)
vs North Carolina
at Florida State
at Clemson
vs Virginia
at Wake Forest
vs Virginia Tech
at Duke
vs Georgia Tech
vs Clemson

Syracuse (7-2)
vs St. John's
at Connecticut
at Seton Hall
vs Providence
vs Georgetown
at Marquette
vs Louisville
vs DePaul
at Georgetown

Kansas (6-3)
at Oklahoma
vs Kansas State
vs Texas
at Oklahoma State
vs Texas Christian
at Iowa State
vs West Virginia
vs Texas Tech
at Baylor

Louisville (6-2)
at Notre Dame
vs St. John's
at South Florida
vs Seton Hall
at DePaul
at Syracuse
vs Cincinnati
vs Notre Dame
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Anyone got a link to a bracket that projects future results in creating the bracket? There used to be a good one but I think the guys behind it stopped wasting their life away on college basketball a year or two ago.


I don't know about that, but here are the guys that put all of the brackets together:

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
 
Updated remaining games and projected records before the conference tournaments, in order of real ultimate projected power (RPI and SOS are current, not projected):

#1 Duke (6-2 remaining, 27-4 final, #1 RPI, #2 SOS)
vs North Carolina
at Maryland
at Virginia Tech
vs Boston College
at Virginia
vs Miami
vs Virginia Tech
at North Carolina

#2 Florida (7-1 remaining, 26-4 final, #4 RPI, #9 SOS)
vs Kentucky
at Auburn
at Missouri
vs Arkansas
at Tennessee
vs Alabama
vs Vanderbilt
at Kentucky

#3 Miami (6-2 remaining, 25-5 final, #2 RPI, #1 SOS)
at Florida State
at Clemson
vs Virginia
at Wake Forest
vs Virginia Tech
at Duke
vs Georgia Tech
vs Clemson

#4 Michigan (5-2 remaining, 26-5 final, #5 RPI, #17 SOS)
at Michigan State
vs Penn State
vs Illinois
at Penn State
vs Michigan State
at Purdue
vs Indiana

#5 Indiana (5-2 remaining, 26-5 final, #13 RPI, #25 SOS)
vs Nebraska
vs Purdue
at Michigan State
at Minnesota
vs Iowa
vs Ohio State
at Michigan

#6 Gonzaga (6-0 remaining, 29-2 final, #12 RPI, #50 SOS)
at St. Mary's
at San Francisco
vs Santa Clara
vs San Diego
at BYU
vs Portland

#7 Syracuse (6-2 remaining, 26-5 final, #8 RPI, #21 SOS)
at Connecticut
at Seton Hall
vs Providence
vs Georgetown
at Marquette
vs Louisville
vs DePaul
at Georgetown

#8 Arizona (5-2 remaining, 25-5 final, #6 RPI, #10 SOS)
at Colorado
at Utah
vs Washington
vs Washington State
at Southern Cal
at UCLA
vs Arizona State

#9 Louisville (6-1 remaining, 25-6 final, #7 RPI, #7 SOS)
vs St. John's
at South Florida
vs Seton Hall
at DePaul
at Syracuse
vs Cincinnati
vs Notre Dame

#10 Kansas (6-2 remaining, 25-6 final, #9 RPI, #13 SOS)
vs Kansas State
vs Texas
at Oklahoma State
vs Texas Christian
at Iowa State
vs West Virginia
vs Texas Tech
at Baylor
 
So as long as we don't fall flat on our face we'll be #1 overall? Good stuff.
 
No way they stick conference foes in the same region. We'll draw Indy for sure.
 
How forgiving would the committee be if we lost at maryland without ryan kelly? In fact, how forgiving would they be for any loss without him?
 
Oh yeah forgot the conference rule. And I forgot the real landmines in all of this - getting Louisville (Kenpom 3) as your 3 seed, and getting Pitt (Kenpom 5) as your 4 or 5 seed.

That's tough for Indiana, then. The rest of their regular season is very high stakes; either get the 1 seed in Indy or Michigan probably gets it and Indiana has to go somewhere else.

Washington, DC
1 Duke (Kenpom 6 and falling)
2 Arizona (K 12 and falling)
3 Louisville (K 3)

Arlington, TX
1 Florida (K 1)
2 Indiana (K 2, stagnant)

Los Angeles
1 Miami (K 8, possibly rising)
2 Gonzaga (K 10)
3 X
4 Pittsburgh (K 5)

Indianapolis
1 Michigan (K 4)
2 Syracuse (K 7 and rising)

In this scenario, the 4 seed would be the best team in the West and the 3 seed would be the best team in the East, according to Kenpom.
 
Updated remaining games and projected records before the conference tournaments, in order of real ultimate projected power (RPI and SOS are current, not projected):

#1 Miami (5-1 remaining, 26-4 final, #2 RPI, #1 SOS)
vs Virginia
at Wake Forest
vs Virginia Tech
at Duke
vs Georgia Tech
vs Clemson

#2 Florida (5-1 remaining, 26-4 final, #4 RPI, #15 SOS)
at Missouri
vs Arkansas
at Tennessee
vs Alabama
vs Vanderbilt
at Kentucky

#3 Duke (4-2 remaining, 26-5 final, #1 RPI, #2 SOS)
at Virginia Tech
vs Boston College
at Virginia
vs Miami
vs Virginia Tech
at North Carolina

#4 Michigan (4-1 remaining, 26-5 final, #6 RPI, #19 SOS)
vs Illinois
at Penn State
vs Michigan State
at Purdue
vs Indiana

#5 Indiana (3-2 remaining, 26-5 final, #12 RPI, #31 SOS)
at Michigan State
at Minnesota
vs Iowa
vs Ohio State
at Michigan

#6 Gonzaga (4-0 remaining, 29-2 final, #10 RPI, #51 SOS)
vs Santa Clara
vs San Diego
at BYU
vs Portland

#7 Kansas (5-1 remaining, 26-5 final, #7 RPI, #8 SOS)
at Oklahoma State
vs Texas Christian
at Iowa State
vs West Virginia
vs Texas Tech
at Baylor[/quote]

#8 Michigan State (3-2 remaining, 25-6 final, #5 RPI, #11 SOS)
vs Indiana
at Ohio State
at Michigan
vs Wisconsin
vs Northwestern

#9 Syracuse (5-1 remaining, 26-5 final, #11 RPI, #23 SOS)
vs Providence
vs Georgetown
at Marquette
vs Louisville
vs DePaul
at Georgetown

#10 Arizona (4-1 remaining, 25-5 final, #9 RPI, #10 SOS)
vs Washington
vs Washington State
at Southern Cal
at UCLA
vs Arizona State

#11 Louisville (4-1 remaining, 25-6 final, #8 RPI, #5 SOS)
vs Seton Hall
at DePaul
at Syracuse
vs Cincinnati
vs Notre Dame
 
Mason's unbelievable shittastic display against Maryland has put Duke in position to realistically be shipped out to Los Angeles with either Indiana or Gonzaga as the 2-seed. Disastrous in either case.

Or the committee "splits the baby" by sending Michigan out to LA while giving Duke the privilege of only going as far as Indianapolis, with Indiana as the 2-seed.
 
So based on the S-Curve we would get Gonzaga, and based on what we expect from the selection committee we'll get Indiana in Indianapolis?
 
Yes, I'd expect to get Indiana in Indianapolis even with Kelly healthy, unless Duke can run the table. With how this season is going, we'll probably get La Salle as our 16 seed in Philadelphia.
 
Getting IU in Indianapolis is shitty. But honestly I really don't care who our 2 is because that would mean we'd be playing them in an E8 game so I'd be stoked about that. Not to mention K is like 11-1? In E8 games.
 

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