Player Marvin Bagley III

[physicsfactor]

Ben Simmons seems like a close comparison and a good target for Bagley in terms of freshman production. Surprised the comparison has not been made in the media more often.

Simmons vs. Bagley

• Suffered season-ending injury (Bagley projected similar)

I glossed over this the first time, but lol'd fo' real when I noticed it.

 

[rome8180]

There's also the fact that the media hypes up prospects constantly, and they often do it on the basis of "wow factor" highlights. They also aren't hardcore Duke fans, so they're looking at Bagley in a vacuum and not in relation to Duke's existing roster and needs.

 

[rome8180]

Oh, and most of them are total morons with a couple exceptions (Luke Winn, Givony, etc.).

 

[dukedavidson13]

Lol "everyone thinks he's gonna be a superstar" and "he'll clearly be the #1 pick". Where to even begin?

There are many potential differences between someone who will be a successful professional basketball player or even a budding star in the NBA (what NBA scouts are evaluating) and a first or second team All-American freshman or even an impactful college starter (what matters to Duke fans). Anyone, especially Duke fans who have seen top prospects, who takes rankings and highlight videos as indicative of being a sure thing is being willfully ignorant.

Off the top of my head, Skal Labassiere was once considered in the same breath as Ben Simmons before he began his college career and then averaged something like 15 minutes a game and 6-7 ppg at UK. Disappointing for sure, and he was a late first rounder as a result. He then looked quite bad for most of the first half of the Kings season, but by March and April showed so much promise that he's borderline untradeable now. Meanwhile, Jah had almost the exact opposite path. Top high school recruit, had a significant impact at Duke (helped win a NC), was drafted in the top 3. Now he's already being considered a dinosaur in the NBA.

What does this all have to do with Bags? 1) Obviously I am hopeful he will have an positive impact, but in a way that benefits the team not just his own professional prospects (aka has too high of a usage rate for his effective FG%, doesn't get so many minutes despite playing bad D that it turns into an Okafor Ewing-theory type issue). 2) By now everyone should know that highlights and all of the skills shown in HS/ballislife mixtapes don't necessarily translate to college. Should we assume Bags can run the break because of a few passes and dribbles he made in AAU/HS ball? Probably not. Is he probably a better option than Bolden and about the same level as Amile last year? Seems more reasonable. 3) Impact as a freshman in college is not the same as eventual impact in the NBA. When the word "superstar" is thrown around, there's a chance they mean the player turns into Michael Beasley in college who ends up seeing far less success in the NBA, or they mean a Skal Labassiere who disappoints in college but continues to develop his game based on skills he flashed and could eventually make a few all star games if he keeps on this trajectory. But almost all designations at this age of a player (18-19) are too premature to be taken for granted. Lebron/KD are exceptions, not the rule. 4) Anytime the words "once in a generation talent" are used, disregarding them entirely would be smart because that's how writers who need clicks on their websites get them.

 

[CMon85]

I personally don't think he will be a college superstar or win POY. About 15-16pts, 7-8rebs, 2asts, 1-2blks is what I'm expecting. REALLY good for a freshman but not world beating.

 

[best4heisman]

If he is the best player in our frontcourt, I will be beyond thrilled. Carter looks like a sure thing.

 

[DurhamSon]

 

[DurhamSon]

Just to humble ourselves a little, that's two busts, 4 average to underwhelming players, and two question marks so far. Oh, and one actual generation talent. That said, I would be more than happy with the freshman college production of almost all of them.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Bagley is definitely going to be in the upper half of that list. In terms of production and overall impact, I think he'll certainly outperform Wiggins, Muhammad, Okafor, Barnes, and Jennings.

 

[dukedavidson13]

If he performs above some of those players college levels (Okafor was a first team all-american, despite turrible defense; Shabazz first team all-conference; Wiggins was second team all-American), so put up at least 16 and 6 and hopefully do so efficiently/in the flow of the offense, I'll be thrilled

 

[wtbball21]

Just to humble ourselves a little, that's two busts, 4 average to underwhelming players, and two question marks so far. Oh, and one actual generation talent. That said, I would be more than happy with the freshman college production of almost all of them.

Looking at it just on the college side, Bagley is the 7th 4/5 in the the last 12 years to be the consensus #1 recruit. The previous 6 were Greg Oden, Derrick Favors, Anthony Davis, Nerlnes Noel, Jahlil Okafor and Ben Simmons. The collegiate averages for those players come out to....

Advanced Stats
29.3 PER
7.1 Win shares
116 Offensive rating
24% Usage rate
12.2 Offensive rebounding rate
22.5 Defensive rebounding rate
9.1 Block rate
59.7 Free throw rate
61.6% 2 point field goal percentage


Traditional Stats
30.9 Minutes per game
14.9 Points per game
61.1 FG%
9.7 Rebounds per game
1.8 Assists per game
1.3 Steals per game
2.7 Blocks per game
2.3 Turnovers per game

 

[torontoduke]

Officially enrolled at Duke U.

 

[DurhamSon]

John, you might as well reveal your username here

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[sjsj2448]

HERE COMES DUKE

 

[deepdarkblue]

OKAY

 

[niveklaen]

That was fast. Cue allegations of favoritism.

 

[torontoduke]

That was fast. Cue allegations of favoritism.

People were complaining before this was even official.

 

[cameron06]

Nice!

 

[aiw]

46-0 DTFU BITCHES