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Player Marvin Bagley III

I thought he gave much better defensive effort in the Florida game, for the record. The Texas game was what made me angry at him for not at least vaguely moving toward the ball.
 
If it’s necessary to debate Bagley vs. Carter all season rather than accepting that they may both be incredible and fairly close in overall impact, then here are their overall advanced stats currently (Bagley’s number is first; asterisks indicate Bagley has the more impressive number):

*Usage: 30% vs. 21%
Offensive Rating: 126 vs. 128
Defensive Rating: 97 vs. 93
*PER: 33 vs. 29
*Win Shares per 40: .266 vs. .241
*OBPM: 7.2 vs. 6.4
DBPM: 1.2 vs. 7.5
BPM: 8.4 vs. 13.9
+/- per 40: 19.4 vs. 23.5

These guys are totally different players and both are dream freshmen. They can complement each other and we can all be happy.

Bagley carries an Okafor-level load on offense without killing the offense, because he’s exceptional at being a high usage star who manages to fit the flow of any offense, mainly through beasting on the boards.

Carter is basically a mid-career Shelden Williams on defense, which is ridiculous for a freshman and an absolutely necessary blessing for K. Carter is also pretty similar to Shelden on offense in that he could probably improve the offense by doing more, but for now, his quiet efficiency is working just fine while Bagley exerts so much energy on that end of the court.
 
Both are two of my favorite freshmen we've had. Honestly, the entire class is very likable. I know a lot of you aren't big Duval guys but I love that dude. His 3pt shot leaves a lot to be desired but I love him.
 
ZackM said:
I actually agree about his usage being too high. I'm not a fan of his iso drives or 3pt shots, but I could be swayed if Topher has data showing that it's actually good. I feel like his shots should come from offensive rebounds, transition, and when he has deep post position.
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He's below average in isolation (0.875 ppp, 46th percentile) and piss poor on spot ups (0.385 ppp, 4th percentile)
 
Yeah but in iso he misses and then rebounds and cleans it up a bunch. What’s not as discernible in his stats is that he rebounds 3-4 of his own misses a game. It’d be cool if there was a way to normalize for that
 
We all know K follows the Bilas school of defense... You can get points back, but you can't get fouls back. It's obvious Bagley does, as well.
 
I like the KG comparison in terms of motor and inside/outside abilities. If he played D like KG...wow.
 
torontoduke said:
I like the KG comparison in terms of motor and inside/outside abilities. If he played D like KG...wow.
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I shudder to think what Stevens could do with Marv. He literally has all the tools KG had - length, athleticism, attitude. Needs coach. They ought to even consider trading Smart to get him.
 
Hopefully the Lakers fall off and Boston gets the pick. That plus Smart would probably be enough to move up to #1.
 
childress22 said:
I still think the perfect Celtic is Wendell.
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He'd be great too. Wendell and Marv remind me a lot of Horford and Noah at FL. Wendell the more polished, grittier Horford, and Marv the freakish Noah, though obviously more offensively and less defensively focused.
 
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I also think Wendell is like Horford, but in a way that makes me think he'd be the perfect two-way Celtics center on a non-Horford team, yet also can pair well with him as 4-5s.
 
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It is a bit unfair for me to compare WC to a guy who has played pro for 10 years, but Horford is a better passer IMO

Wendell may have similar defensive tools
 
Horford was much more raw in college - tough defender all over and great rebounder. Al only developed range in the NBA, and while always a decent passer, that aspect of his game has gone through the roof in Boston - once again, all hail Stevens. Statistically, Wendell and Al look scarily similar in college. I think WC has at least a 50/50 shot at meeting or exceeding Horford's career.
 
I continue to be completely baffled at how awful he is at contesting shots at the rim. It makes no sense to me and I can't reconcile it with how amazing of a rebounder and quick jumper he is.

However, I will never not love him due to how absurdly hard he plays on every possession. I don't know if I've ever seen a guy fight as hard for position every single time a shot goes up, which is one thing if you're a Lance Thomas or Dave McClure who needs to out-hustle everyone to add value - for a (skinny) presumptive #1 pick to battle that hard is so refreshing.
 
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