- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,234
The ACC schedule starts out with a public execution of Duke, and then a chance to breathe again.
At Virginia Tech - Saturday, December 31, 12:00pm ET, ESPN2
A few talking points about this game:
1. The coach worse than Hitler, a progeny of spoiled players and a deplorable university will finally receive their comeuppance.
The world is thirsty for Duke's blood, with their hatred piqued by the recent subhuman act of its star player. As children open presents for the holidays, there will only be disappointment as, within the wrapping, they will not find the severed heads of Grayson Allen and Mike Krzyzewski or some tangible confirmation of the destruction of Duke University. However, on New Year's Eve, when Duke takes on Virginia Tech, everybody will finally receive the only gift they have ever wanted.
In a way, and only in this one possible way, Coach K, his players, the Duke basketball program and Duke University as a whole may be remembered by historians for having a positive impact on society: the universal disgust they generate has united all people in a common cause. Regardless of religion, political leanings, race or ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic class or the sports teams one follows, there is no doubt in anyone's mind that Duke must lose its next basketball game. If the President truly cared about unifying the nation, he could simply tweet, "I h8 Duke. Don't u?"
Grayson Allen very nearly murdered an opposing player in Duke's prior game. It's likely (but by no means clear) that Allen did not intend to commit murder. However, Allen was extremely reckless in ignoring the fact that falling to a hardwood floor could result in grave physical harm. This continued a pattern of recklessness displayed by Coach K's players, which has stemmed from his lack of ethics, along with their white privilege and entitlement.
Christian Laettner stomping on a helpless minority is remembered by many as the iconic image of racism in the 20th century. Gerald Henderson elbowing Tyler Hansbrough when Hansbrough was simply trying his hardest in a game was a disgusting act, demonstrating that white privilege is not a concept reserved for white people. JJ Redick holding up a "shocker" symbol with his hands on several occasions was a misogynistic act that set gender equality back for years. Coach K has instilled criminal behavior in his players for decades and Duke University has condoned this behavior, previously hitting rock bottom (before Allen set the new low) when it allowed several of its white lacrosse players to avoid prison time despite gang raping an innocent black woman. The greatest irony is that, just a few miles down the road in Chapel Hill, Duke's main sports rival is widely regarded as a model institution for excellence in sports and academics.
Finally, it's time for Duke's comeuppance. Allen will be suspended for this game at Virginia Tech, in a transparently selfish move by Coach K that was a sacrifice of a player rather than the appropriate acceptance of blame himself. Everyone will be tuned in for this game, to witness Duke's shame and to experience the long awaited cathartic release after suffering through Duke's wrongdoings for decades.
It's impossible to envision the disappointment that will envelop the world if Duke manages to win this game. Frankly, after the past two hideous performances and Allen's petulant hissy-fit after nearly committing homicide, even people who are ordinarily Duke fans should want Duke to lose this game. And what about the few deplorable trolls that are still rooting for Duke? Their trollish happiness if Duke pulls out this win would be unbearable.
2. Ring out 2016, the best year, with the classic "First True Road Game" loss for Duke.
Duke has actually won the monumental test that is the First True Road Game in each of the past two seasons, but Duke was unable to pull off the feat last season if we only consider top 100 teams (Duke beat two bad ACC teams, Boston College and Wake Forest, on the road before losing to Clemson on the road). Prior to the 2015 team coming through at Wisconsin in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, Duke had lost five First True Road Games in a row against top 100 teams (the "top 100 teams" qualifier is only being used here because Duke was able to beat #284 UNC-Greensboro in the first road game of the 2011 season).
There are plenty of narratives that can be developed to explain why Duke has struggled so much in the First True Road Game. At the sweeping generalizations level, we could suggest Duke players over the past several years have been coddled kids who don't have the mental toughness to withstand their first hostile environment in a long time. There's some logic in there - unfamiliarity with that kind of environment may add to the home court advantage the first time each season. It's more likely that this is a small sample size issue and beating a decent team on the road is usually no better than a 65-75% proposition even for the best teams.
With Duke basketball at a tipping point after two ugly games and evisceration in the media, Virginia Tech is not the ideal First True Road Game opponent. It has been a while, but VT is good again.
3. Buzz Williams has Virginia Tech primed to deliver the humiliation Duke deserves.
No surprise in Year 3 of Buzz Williams at Virginia Tech - this guy can coach. He inherited a program that finished #174 on kenpom the season before his arrival. He quickly took the team to #63 last season, and he has VT sitting at #36 currently. Like Buzz's Marquette teams, we should expect VT to consistently be among or around the top 25 teams in college basketball as long as he's their coach.
The most frightening thought for Duke fans should be that Buzz took Duke's 2015 national championship team to overtime when VT was #175 in the country. The following season was not so frightening, as VT lost by 24 at Cameron. VT did beat Virginia last season, however, so they have a bit of a track record with playing elite teams tough at least once per season under Buzz.
4. Virginia Tech does most things well enough to expose a reeling Duke team.
On offense, Virginia Tech does everything well except rebound. They shoot well from everywhere and don't turn it over. They don't crash the glass and usually have a relatively small lineup on the floor. It should be noted that VT has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, so their non-adjusted numbers (i.e., everything but overall offensive and defensive efficiency) are inflated. VT's shot distribution looks smart - they like 3s and free throws equally, and they get relatively little scoring on 2s.
On defense, VT's defining strength is foul avoidance and their greatest weakness is failing to create turnovers. Put those together and, on paper, we get a team that plays extremely passive defense. Their defensive possession length is very long relative to the rest of college basketball. Duke will have all the time in the world to try to get a good shot off, but with free throws being rare, Duke will often have no good option but to try to run a real offense that puts players in positions to hit open layups or 3s. VT will be happy to let Duke players individually dribble up 10-15 feet from the basket and take a jumper. The good news for Duke is that VT's defense gives up a lot of 3pt attempts and has a poor 2pt% allowed. Duke should be able to get open looks from anywhere they want, if they're able to install a decent offensive system in time. Execute a legitimate offense and hit open shots, and Duke could shock the world.
VT's most important player is their redshirt senior center, Zach LeDay (pictured above, figuratively and somewhat literally rejecting all that is wrong with humanity). LeDay is an undersized center at 6-7 235; despite his size, he's a solid rebounder even for the center position and he's making 56% of his 2s after making 50% last season. He gets the ball a lot (27% usage) and scores pretty efficiently (118 offensive rating). Although all of VT's numbers are inflated from facing bad competition so far, LeDay's overall efficiency numbers may actually undersell his abilities - he's only 2-14 from 3 this season (14%) after shooting 43% from 3 in ACC play last season. He's likely to start making 3s again, which would make him a tough matchup for most centers. This should be a good test of Amile Jefferson's versatility.
When LeDay goes to the bench or moves to power forward, VT has a more typical college big man to take his place. Freshman Khadim Sy is 6-10 240, and he has generically good college big man stats (this is a compliment). His rate stats are very impressive for a freshman and seeing him be competent against Duke would raise the question in many Duke fans' minds of how Sy, the #252 overall recruit in the class (per 247sports.com), has been so much better than Marques Bolden, the #15 recruit and projected 1st round draft pick. This assumes Bolden is or has ever been alive.
VT's guards are mostly inefficient chuckers and turnover machines. Sophomore Ahmed Hill is the exception. Hill wasn't great last season, mainly because he turned it over too much, but he has cut his turnover rate nearly by half this season while upping his already good 3pt% to a scorching 46%. Hill is the player Duke needs to lock down on the perimeter, and Matt Jones should get the job done if he's the defender the Duke coaches make him out to be.
Georgia Tech - Wednesday, January 4, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Fortunately for Duke, Josh Pastner is not Buzz Williams. In Pastner's first season at Georgia Tech, he has the Ramblin' Wreck playing like... wait for it... a wreck.
This is a pathetic power conference team, sitting at #142 on kenpom. They're lucky Boston College and Duke exist, because if BC and Duke did not exist, GT would be the laughingstock of the ACC. In fact, in all the Power Five conferences, there are only three other teams worse than GT on kenpom: Missouri, Oregon State and Washington State.
Despite GT's overall ineptness, they perform one important part of basketball very well: they protect the rim without fouling. Like Virginia Tech, GT has played an extremely weak schedule so the numbers are inflated, but they're impressive nonetheless. They're #5 in the country in block rate (17.4%), #35 in 2pt% allowed (42.8%) and #32 in FTA/FGA allowed (26.9%).
The main reason for GT protecting the rim so well is their only good player, Ben Lammers. Look at him in the photo above. He's #44. That's the best men's basketball player at Georgia Tech. Lammers didn't play all that much as a freshman or sophomore, but he is blowing up as a junior and could land an NBA roster spot if he keeps up his development, in spite of his appearance. He blocks 12% of shots while he's on the court, while committing only 2.7 fouls per 40 minutes. He doesn't draw fouls like a dominant offensive force, but when he gets to the line, he's excellent for a big man - 75% FT this season is a huge improvement from 50% FT last season. He's great on the offensive glass, with a 15% offensive rebounding rate. He's good on the defensive glass, with an 18% defensive rebounding rate. Overall, his BPM of 11.6 dwarfs the next highest on his team (2.7). If you're a Duke fan who has been forced to root against Duke for the foreseeable future, which is perfectly reasonable given the circumstances, Lammers seems like a good enough guy to root for.
Boston College - Saturday, January 7, 2:00pm ET, RSN/ESPN3
Trash.
At Virginia Tech - Saturday, December 31, 12:00pm ET, ESPN2
A few talking points about this game:
1. The coach worse than Hitler, a progeny of spoiled players and a deplorable university will finally receive their comeuppance.
The world is thirsty for Duke's blood, with their hatred piqued by the recent subhuman act of its star player. As children open presents for the holidays, there will only be disappointment as, within the wrapping, they will not find the severed heads of Grayson Allen and Mike Krzyzewski or some tangible confirmation of the destruction of Duke University. However, on New Year's Eve, when Duke takes on Virginia Tech, everybody will finally receive the only gift they have ever wanted.
In a way, and only in this one possible way, Coach K, his players, the Duke basketball program and Duke University as a whole may be remembered by historians for having a positive impact on society: the universal disgust they generate has united all people in a common cause. Regardless of religion, political leanings, race or ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic class or the sports teams one follows, there is no doubt in anyone's mind that Duke must lose its next basketball game. If the President truly cared about unifying the nation, he could simply tweet, "I h8 Duke. Don't u?"
Grayson Allen very nearly murdered an opposing player in Duke's prior game. It's likely (but by no means clear) that Allen did not intend to commit murder. However, Allen was extremely reckless in ignoring the fact that falling to a hardwood floor could result in grave physical harm. This continued a pattern of recklessness displayed by Coach K's players, which has stemmed from his lack of ethics, along with their white privilege and entitlement.
Christian Laettner stomping on a helpless minority is remembered by many as the iconic image of racism in the 20th century. Gerald Henderson elbowing Tyler Hansbrough when Hansbrough was simply trying his hardest in a game was a disgusting act, demonstrating that white privilege is not a concept reserved for white people. JJ Redick holding up a "shocker" symbol with his hands on several occasions was a misogynistic act that set gender equality back for years. Coach K has instilled criminal behavior in his players for decades and Duke University has condoned this behavior, previously hitting rock bottom (before Allen set the new low) when it allowed several of its white lacrosse players to avoid prison time despite gang raping an innocent black woman. The greatest irony is that, just a few miles down the road in Chapel Hill, Duke's main sports rival is widely regarded as a model institution for excellence in sports and academics.
Finally, it's time for Duke's comeuppance. Allen will be suspended for this game at Virginia Tech, in a transparently selfish move by Coach K that was a sacrifice of a player rather than the appropriate acceptance of blame himself. Everyone will be tuned in for this game, to witness Duke's shame and to experience the long awaited cathartic release after suffering through Duke's wrongdoings for decades.
It's impossible to envision the disappointment that will envelop the world if Duke manages to win this game. Frankly, after the past two hideous performances and Allen's petulant hissy-fit after nearly committing homicide, even people who are ordinarily Duke fans should want Duke to lose this game. And what about the few deplorable trolls that are still rooting for Duke? Their trollish happiness if Duke pulls out this win would be unbearable.
2. Ring out 2016, the best year, with the classic "First True Road Game" loss for Duke.
Duke has actually won the monumental test that is the First True Road Game in each of the past two seasons, but Duke was unable to pull off the feat last season if we only consider top 100 teams (Duke beat two bad ACC teams, Boston College and Wake Forest, on the road before losing to Clemson on the road). Prior to the 2015 team coming through at Wisconsin in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, Duke had lost five First True Road Games in a row against top 100 teams (the "top 100 teams" qualifier is only being used here because Duke was able to beat #284 UNC-Greensboro in the first road game of the 2011 season).
There are plenty of narratives that can be developed to explain why Duke has struggled so much in the First True Road Game. At the sweeping generalizations level, we could suggest Duke players over the past several years have been coddled kids who don't have the mental toughness to withstand their first hostile environment in a long time. There's some logic in there - unfamiliarity with that kind of environment may add to the home court advantage the first time each season. It's more likely that this is a small sample size issue and beating a decent team on the road is usually no better than a 65-75% proposition even for the best teams.
With Duke basketball at a tipping point after two ugly games and evisceration in the media, Virginia Tech is not the ideal First True Road Game opponent. It has been a while, but VT is good again.
3. Buzz Williams has Virginia Tech primed to deliver the humiliation Duke deserves.
No surprise in Year 3 of Buzz Williams at Virginia Tech - this guy can coach. He inherited a program that finished #174 on kenpom the season before his arrival. He quickly took the team to #63 last season, and he has VT sitting at #36 currently. Like Buzz's Marquette teams, we should expect VT to consistently be among or around the top 25 teams in college basketball as long as he's their coach.
The most frightening thought for Duke fans should be that Buzz took Duke's 2015 national championship team to overtime when VT was #175 in the country. The following season was not so frightening, as VT lost by 24 at Cameron. VT did beat Virginia last season, however, so they have a bit of a track record with playing elite teams tough at least once per season under Buzz.
4. Virginia Tech does most things well enough to expose a reeling Duke team.
On offense, Virginia Tech does everything well except rebound. They shoot well from everywhere and don't turn it over. They don't crash the glass and usually have a relatively small lineup on the floor. It should be noted that VT has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, so their non-adjusted numbers (i.e., everything but overall offensive and defensive efficiency) are inflated. VT's shot distribution looks smart - they like 3s and free throws equally, and they get relatively little scoring on 2s.
On defense, VT's defining strength is foul avoidance and their greatest weakness is failing to create turnovers. Put those together and, on paper, we get a team that plays extremely passive defense. Their defensive possession length is very long relative to the rest of college basketball. Duke will have all the time in the world to try to get a good shot off, but with free throws being rare, Duke will often have no good option but to try to run a real offense that puts players in positions to hit open layups or 3s. VT will be happy to let Duke players individually dribble up 10-15 feet from the basket and take a jumper. The good news for Duke is that VT's defense gives up a lot of 3pt attempts and has a poor 2pt% allowed. Duke should be able to get open looks from anywhere they want, if they're able to install a decent offensive system in time. Execute a legitimate offense and hit open shots, and Duke could shock the world.
VT's most important player is their redshirt senior center, Zach LeDay (pictured above, figuratively and somewhat literally rejecting all that is wrong with humanity). LeDay is an undersized center at 6-7 235; despite his size, he's a solid rebounder even for the center position and he's making 56% of his 2s after making 50% last season. He gets the ball a lot (27% usage) and scores pretty efficiently (118 offensive rating). Although all of VT's numbers are inflated from facing bad competition so far, LeDay's overall efficiency numbers may actually undersell his abilities - he's only 2-14 from 3 this season (14%) after shooting 43% from 3 in ACC play last season. He's likely to start making 3s again, which would make him a tough matchup for most centers. This should be a good test of Amile Jefferson's versatility.
When LeDay goes to the bench or moves to power forward, VT has a more typical college big man to take his place. Freshman Khadim Sy is 6-10 240, and he has generically good college big man stats (this is a compliment). His rate stats are very impressive for a freshman and seeing him be competent against Duke would raise the question in many Duke fans' minds of how Sy, the #252 overall recruit in the class (per 247sports.com), has been so much better than Marques Bolden, the #15 recruit and projected 1st round draft pick. This assumes Bolden is or has ever been alive.
VT's guards are mostly inefficient chuckers and turnover machines. Sophomore Ahmed Hill is the exception. Hill wasn't great last season, mainly because he turned it over too much, but he has cut his turnover rate nearly by half this season while upping his already good 3pt% to a scorching 46%. Hill is the player Duke needs to lock down on the perimeter, and Matt Jones should get the job done if he's the defender the Duke coaches make him out to be.
Georgia Tech - Wednesday, January 4, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Fortunately for Duke, Josh Pastner is not Buzz Williams. In Pastner's first season at Georgia Tech, he has the Ramblin' Wreck playing like... wait for it... a wreck.
This is a pathetic power conference team, sitting at #142 on kenpom. They're lucky Boston College and Duke exist, because if BC and Duke did not exist, GT would be the laughingstock of the ACC. In fact, in all the Power Five conferences, there are only three other teams worse than GT on kenpom: Missouri, Oregon State and Washington State.
Despite GT's overall ineptness, they perform one important part of basketball very well: they protect the rim without fouling. Like Virginia Tech, GT has played an extremely weak schedule so the numbers are inflated, but they're impressive nonetheless. They're #5 in the country in block rate (17.4%), #35 in 2pt% allowed (42.8%) and #32 in FTA/FGA allowed (26.9%).
The main reason for GT protecting the rim so well is their only good player, Ben Lammers. Look at him in the photo above. He's #44. That's the best men's basketball player at Georgia Tech. Lammers didn't play all that much as a freshman or sophomore, but he is blowing up as a junior and could land an NBA roster spot if he keeps up his development, in spite of his appearance. He blocks 12% of shots while he's on the court, while committing only 2.7 fouls per 40 minutes. He doesn't draw fouls like a dominant offensive force, but when he gets to the line, he's excellent for a big man - 75% FT this season is a huge improvement from 50% FT last season. He's great on the offensive glass, with a 15% offensive rebounding rate. He's good on the defensive glass, with an 18% defensive rebounding rate. Overall, his BPM of 11.6 dwarfs the next highest on his team (2.7). If you're a Duke fan who has been forced to root against Duke for the foreseeable future, which is perfectly reasonable given the circumstances, Lammers seems like a good enough guy to root for.
Boston College - Saturday, January 7, 2:00pm ET, RSN/ESPN3
Trash.
