NBA Draft Discussion

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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby niveklaen » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:00 pm

This was the post that I was remembering...


Re: Matt Jones

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:35 pm

Matt's last 6 games:

32.3 minutes per game
7-34 FG (20.6% FG)
5-17 2pt (29.4% 2pt)
2-17 3pt (11.8% 3pt)
3.0 points per game
2.3 rebounds per game
1.3 assists per game
1.7 steals per game
0.2 blocks per game
1.2 turnovers per game
2.0 fouls per game

You can't have this on the court for 32 minutes. Unplayable. Even Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green would be unplayable if they put up these numbers. Needs fixing.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby niveklaen » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:11 pm

or maybe it was this one?


Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:51 am

Time to check in with hoop-math.com to see if this senior captain is as dumb with shot selection as he looks...
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2017.php

Yes, he is that dumb with shot selection.

First, let's give Jones some credit - only 12% of his shots have been 2pt jumpers (i.e., not layups or 3s). He's smarter than any Duke player other than Jefferson in that respect. Let's not give Jones too much credit, though - he's shooting 29% on 2pt jumpers, which is by far the worst on the team, so that 12% number should be closer to 0% if Jones is really smart.

Now, let's understand how stupid this idiot has been in all other ways.

Last season, for a large sample size comparison:
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2016.php

22% of shots are at rim
40% FG at rim (atrocious; worst on team; next worst non-Thornton was 59% by Ingram, much higher)
17% FTA/FGA (worst on team; next worst non-Thornton was 30% by Kennard, much higher; means his drives to rim are not justified by drawing lots of fouls)
60% of shots are 3pt
42% 3FG (basic math - Jones scores over 1.2 points per 3pt attempt, whereas he scores 0.8 points per layup attempt, so in the best case scenario where he is successful at getting all the way to the rim instead of settling for a 2pt jumper or turning the ball over on a drive, he is costing Duke 0.4 points per possession on his drives; again, costing his team roughly 0.4 points on average is the best case scenario when he decides to drive)

This season:

32% of shots are at rim
47% FG at rim (still very bad, especially considering the relatively weak schedule thus far; tied for worst on team with Allen, who may as well be dead on the court; next worst is Vrankovic at 57%)
13% FTA/FGA (still worst on team by far; still doesn't justify drives to rim)
57% of shots are 3pt
41% 3FG (still great, still makes Jones look like an idiot for taking other shots)

Finally, let's try to give Jones some credit again - he does in fact take a lot of 3s and he doesn't try all that many layups, so generally, he has the right idea. The question becomes, is it feasible for a player like Jones, who is great on 3s but awful on any other shot, to be any more extreme with his preference for 3pt attempts? Maybe it's simply a necessity to drive enough to keep the defense honest so that Jones can continue to be so prolific from 3.

Can we find examples of 3pt specialists who are even more skewed than having double or nearly triple (Jones last season) the 3pt attempt rate compared with layup rate?

Yes, we can, so no, we shouldn't give Jones any credit for this awful shot selection.

You may recall a Duke player whose name has since been sullied by arguably the worst Duke basketball player ever, Derryck Thornton. In his senior season, Tyler Thornton, a basketball god of shot selection, was everything Jones should be on offense now.

Here are Tyler Thornton's numbers from the 2014 season:
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2014.php

11% of shots are at rim (wow!)
38% FG at rim (terrible, like Jones)
28% FTA/FGA (much better than Jones, but didn't tempt Thornton to drive more)
80% of shots are 3pt (3pt attempts almost EIGHT TIMES more frequent than layup attempts!)
45% 3FG (great, like Jones)

Here's the real ass-kicker: 67% of Thornton's layups were assisted, as opposed to being on individual forays to the basket not set up in the flow of the offense, whereas 11% of Jones's layups this season are assisted, and 19% of Jones's layups last season were assisted. Jones is actively, affirmatively, idiotically deciding to drive on his own and ignore the talent around him.

No worries, though. We have the best coaching staff in college basketball to teach Jones how to fix this. If everyone in the world can see the glaring problem, certainly they can. After four seasons, they will finally get his head on straight.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rome8180 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:18 pm

Jones had some very bad stretches with his three-point shooting. But overall, he was pretty good there. IIRC, he also almost never turned the ball over.

Allen had a pretty inefficient year, especially when compared to his godlike sophomore season.
Only the fish who leaps
sees the moon in the water. -- Obaka
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:17 pm

I think you're looking at the wrong column. You're looking at wins produced, rather than WP/40, which would make more sense.

Remember, Matt didn't miss a game, and these other guys did (Grayson missed 3); moreover, Matt averaged 3 more mpg than Grayson when he did play.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:34 pm

The Matt Jones posts bring back fond memories of me thinking things could improve during the course of last season.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:37 am



Bucks seeming more realistic. Still don't think he plays more than 10 mpg in any season of his first contract.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby CK86 » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:49 pm

Am I the only one that likes Dennis Smith as a prospect more than anyone else in the draft? He just seems like he has all the skills to be an all star caliber player.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rome8180 » Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:01 pm

I missed the NC State game we lost. So I've literally never seen him play outside of high school highlight videos.
Only the fish who leaps
sees the moon in the water. -- Obaka
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby physicsfactor » Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:32 pm

I turned the State game on just in time to see Tatum(?) lose the ball and Smith dunked it from the 3pt line after the buzzer. I expected the Raiders to take him in the 1st round.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby Topher » Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:39 pm

CK86 wrote:Am I the only one that likes Dennis Smith as a prospect more than anyone else in the draft? He just seems like he has all the skills to be an all star caliber player.


I'd take him ahead of Lonzo Ball but I expect to be in the minority on that. Smith was raised a helluva lot tougher than Ball. Don't **** with kids from Fayettenam.
"I'll do what I can to help y'all. But, the game's out there, and it's play or get played. That simple." -- Tyler Thornton
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rhfarmer » Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:24 pm

I'm a big fan of Smith, and think he will be a great pro.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby Slap the Floor » Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:14 pm

I really would love if the Knicks could grab Dennis Smith Jr at #8. Then figure out a way to trade Carmelo Anthony.

I think Dennis Smith Jr-Porzingis- Hernangonez is a solid young core. Unfortunately I doubt Smith Jr will be around for the Knicks since we are so incompetent we can't even tank properly.

I would also be fine if the Knicks were able to get Monk. Given our position, Smith Jr or Monk would be a really selection, imo.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:58 pm



Up to #11 in the mock draft. Bucks out of range now. Going to Charlotte, where he will be hated by everyone from the top down.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rome8180 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:34 am

Kennard somehow registered a 38.5-inch max vert at his Lakers workout.
Only the fish who leaps
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:24 am

Once Grayson tests out at the combine, it will be confirmed that Duke 2017 had the 3 most freakish guards in the country to surround Amile Jefferson. The coaching staff managed to pilot this team to a blowout loss in the 2nd round.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby torontoduke » Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:18 am

He would be a nice fit in Charlotte.

I also like how he could fit in with Bucks (desperate for more perimeter shooting) and the Pistons (although you have mentioned their preference for perimeter players with length).

SeanMayTriedToEatMe wrote:

Up to #11 in the mock draft. Bucks out of range now. Going to Charlotte, where he will be hated by everyone from the top down.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DurhamSon » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:40 pm




Imagine if he had a real anger problem like Grayson though, the media might have to devote 1% of the coverage Allen gets.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DurhamSon » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:41 pm






Duke probably ends up with more top 10 draft picks than NCAAT wins this year.


Such a ball buster we lost this kid early. He's the kind of recruit you can ride to a title as an upperclassman, ugh.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:10 am

Yeah, but Allen Crabbe has a 4-year, $75 million dollar deal. Devin Booker may end up being a max player. There's a market for, and paucity of, guys Kennard's size who can shoot like he can from outside and still bring other offensive options.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby torontoduke » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:54 pm

I am certain someone will give Booker max money. Lakers in 2 years.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby deepdarkblue » Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:20 pm

Pfft, scrub.

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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DukeCrow » Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:26 pm

Obviously not Duke material.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby Slap the Floor » Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:10 pm

Although I am a Kennard fan, I would like to see my Knicks take Monk or the PG from France over him if both are available. The Knicks perimeter defense last season was horrendous and I think the other two are more suited to helping the Knicks there than Kennard. I don't think Monk is as skilled as Kennard offensively but the gap isn't so huge that I would take Kennard over him.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DurhamSon » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:11 pm






Couldn't get past the first weekend with two top ten picks. Christ.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby surfpenguin » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:15 pm

GOAT
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DukeCrow » Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:46 am


Top 10 pick
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:55 am



Day of Draft mock:

3 Celtics - Tatum
12 Pistons - Kennard
26 Blazers - Giles
38 Bulls - Jackson

Undrafted - Jefferson, Jones, Pagliuca

Celtics are going to need to move Crowder. Stevens is going to coach to win games now, which means playing Crowder over Tatum. Obviously, this is the best case for Tatum among the top few teams.

Pistons would signal a willingness to play a lot more smallball or trade someone if they take Kennard, as they already have a max contract Reggie Jackson, max contract Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, decent rotation player Ish Smith, high upside project Stanley Johnson, lots of SF minutes going to Marcus Morris, and kinda wing-like Tobias Harris. Probably try to trade Morris, as his cheap contract makes him an asset. Move Jackson for anything except a longer terrible max contract in return.

Blazers would be stashing Giles as they continue to develop Nurkic and Vonleh, or give up on Vonleh. Good situation for Giles.

Mid-to-late 30s is a really good range to be in for Jackson, but since these picks are traded frequently, it doesn't really matter. However, if Jackson is targeted by one of the teams 36-39, he'll be on a big market team. The Bulls are probably the worst current situation among these teams. 36 Sixers, 37 Celtics, 38 Bulls, 39 Sixers.
Last edited by SeanMayTriedToEatMe on Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:05 am

I think any team would be ridiculously stupid to draft Zach Collins when Kennard is on the board. I don't understand why Sacramento wouldn't bite. Not that I want Luke playing for the Kings or anything, but if they came away from the draft with Fox and Kennard, that'd be their best draft since getting Boogie.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby torontoduke » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:09 am

I know I am not supposed to be posting insider information on a public forum, but the Celts are going to use their 2nd rounder on Pags.

Take that for data.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:09 am

Also, I don't understand how Sindarius Thornwell isn't a higher pick. It seems like his floor is maybe PJ Tucker, but he's got such a better offensive skill set. A rich man's Danny Green?
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:19 am

Kings fans would not react well to Kennard after Stauskas, as irrational as that may be.

I agree about Collins. Collins and all "true" centers like him (non-transcendent, no-Shaq/Hakeem types), at this stage in the progression of basketball, is just a body. A placeholder to be surrounded by actual valuable players at the other positions. There should only really be 60 immobile, non-3pt shooting centers in the league, 2 on each team, just to suck up minutes and "banging in the post" energy for more valuable players during the regular season. Collins did shoot high 40s from 3 last season, but that was on such low volume that I'd lean toward discounting it entirely, especially trying to translate it to NBA range.

The on/off splits and other true value stats will probably show very little difference between centers 4-60 in any given season. There may be a very small number that are significantly better than the rest, like a good-FT-shooting version of DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond that miraculously comes around every 5-10 years. I am biased, but Harry Giles is more likely to separate himself as a center down the road than Zach Collins, IMO. Of course, Collins is the much better player right now, 1-2 years removed from Giles's ACL tears.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:31 am

I think switchable defense at the center position is the second-best attribute to covet after rim protection. If you don't have DeAndre Jordan at center, you probably want a Draymond-lite, or a Tristan Thompson.

The thing about Joel Embiid is that he's like a hybrid of both of those kinds of players.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:28 pm

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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DukeCrow » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:41 pm


She made him get a hair stylist
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby DurhamSon » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:51 pm

Al Jackson can suck a dick.

Hope Frank falls somewhere decent at least.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rome8180 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:34 am

Wasn't enough that Frank had to **** up our chances next season. Now he's going to cut into Cook's playing time.
Only the fish who leaps
sees the moon in the water. -- Obaka
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby deepdarkblue » Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:28 pm

Jinx Jackson, only exists to **** up all things Duke.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby deepdarkblue » Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:20 pm

I don't really know where to put this, but it did make me lol:

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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby childress22 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:33 pm

rome8180 wrote:Wasn't enough that Frank had to **** up our chances next season. Now he's going to cut into Cook's playing time.


There should be time for both. Also, Frank should be a 2 guard, IMO.
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Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Postby rome8180 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:42 pm

I think his best potential is as a PG. He needs to learn to pass though.

Also, I feel like New Orleans had a million **** guards last I checked.
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