I can see that. I just think about the way a franchise like Memphis has drafted in the 20s. They've taken supposedly lower "upside" guys with high floors. And it's really helped flesh out their roster. Of course, they're also pairing it with two top 5 picks in Morant and Jackson. So at some point you do need to get a top 5 talent either by trade or the draft. I guess you could argue that their team upside is still limited. But if Bane, Clarke, Tillman, etc continue to be solid players, they can at the very least be trade assets if they do find they need another star. In other words, I'm disagreeing with you a bit on the trade value of the solid starters. A team that has no bad players and no bad contracts is often better poised for contention than it might seem.

And of course, Memphis did the opposite in this last draft with Ziaire Williams. Privileging youth and upside over a high floor.

As for your example, I think I'd be comfortable taking freshman Allen over Moore despite the sample because his efficiency and per minute numbers were so encouraging. It's a different case than a guy like Ziaire, who had nothing but pedigree to recommend him. That's where I get off-board with youth as a selling point. He also has too many I's in his name.

This trend of borderline-top-100 guys who blow up as sophomores being immediately taken seriously as top 5 picks is interesting. On the one hand, we were probably due for a swing back in that direction, where efficient Grayson Allens are valued more than back muscled Noah Vonlehs.

On the other, feels like some of it could be an overreaction to very small data sets that have a lot of noise. Especially when you're going so much off of shooting %s, there's just so much randomness. Take a few dozen guys who are true 33-35% shooters on volume, and a few are going to hit 40-45% over the course of the season just based on luck. It's literally a difference of 10-20 bounces, and can vault someone from a fringe pick into the lottery. Just kind of weird.

Jabari Smith dominating early against Alabama. He’s a fucking monster. Why was there ever a conversation for the #1 pick between he and Banchero?

dukebluedevils05 said:

Jabari Smith dominating early against Alabama. He’s a fucking monster. Why was there ever a conversation for the #1 pick between he and Banchero?

Click to expand...

Weren't we recruiting him at one point?

J Kyle Mann is one of the best out there. This board would already know that if they listened to me. He did the Dime Drop videos back in the day, and now he's responsible for some of the best Ringer content. He has the best prose style of any sports writer outside of Lowe, and his evaluation has typically been very accurate too.

In other news, if evaluators weren't lazy and didn't only watch marquee matchups, AJ would be jumping into the top 6-7. Personally, I prefer him as a prospect to Paolo, but that's going to be a tough sell given Paolo's size and AJ's injury concerns.

What a great top 5.

SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:

I would include Griffin in that elite group of 6-7, personally. I might even put him #1 overall after a few more games of being unchained. My biggest concern with him is defense.

My order right now would be:

1. Jabari Smith
2. AJ Griffin
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Paolo Banchero
6. Kendall Brown

7+. Jaden Hardy / Johnny Davis / Bennedict Mathurin / Keegan Murray

Of course my #1 priority is shooting. Brown is the ultimate lottery ticket - he could be just about anything. I might take the great unknown over Holmgren and Banchero. Even having Banchero at #5 feels bad, like putting Jahlil Okafor in your top 10 coming out of Duke - you're doing it out of a sense of inertia and consciously herding with everyone else, because he has been so hyped up for so many years, but you feel like maybe he shouldn't even go in the 1st round in today's NBA. His ceiling is probably higher than anyone else's in this draft, so it's not nearly the same situation, though. Develop the shooting and he would potentially be a Ben Simmons-like defender with Tatum's offensive game.

Click to expand...

At the very least, I feel like Banchero could have a lot of success as a small ball 5 on a great team. He may not be your #1 offensive option, but having someone who can guard all five positions, stretch the floor at league average, and taking slower traditional centers off the dribble is worth a top 7 pick in this draft, imo. It all depends on his being drafted by a team that's not married to traditional positional thinking, however.

#4 and #5 picks

aiw said:

#4 and #5 picks

Click to expand...

And #6 if you click on the image

Wow, guess it shouldn't be surprising but kind of nice to see a legit draft guy have all three that high. I'm not convinced that Kyle and Lively will actually be good enough to warrant top 5 or even top 10 picks, but that would sure be nice.