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Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Quinn looks great, it is clear he put in a lot of work in the summer of 2014. Good example for the others to follow.

rome8180 said:
I'm expecting 1-2 in that three game stretch. Would be very happy with 2-1.

Also, Quinn is absolutely ripped. I just wait for him to put on that wifebeater so I can admire his shoulders.
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SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Defensive game plan going forward:

Pittsburgh - zone (#221 3pt%, #343 3ptA/FGA)
@St. John's - zone (#223, #294)
@Notre Dame - extended man (#14, #62)
@Virginia - packed man (#22, #306)
Georgia Tech - zone (#346, #308)
Notre Dame - extended man
@Florida State - zone (#342, #322)
@Syracuse - zone (#256, #319)
North Carolina - zone (#233, #348)
Clemson - zone (#304, #144)
@Virginia Tech - packed man (#10, #236)
Syracuse - zone
Wake Forest - zone (#197, #271)
@North Carolina - zone

10 fairly obvious zone opponents out of 14. The ACC is an atrocious 3pt shooting conference. This must have played into K's decision to make the long overdue diametrical shift in defensive approach. It would've been incredibly frustrating to watch extended man to man defense against a schedule of teams that can't shoot 3s and won't shoot 3s, except Notre Dame, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

It should be noted that Miami would call for extended man to man since they make 3s and like taking 3s. There was not much Duke could have done on that glorious day that ended up changing everything, except outscore Miami. The blame for thinking Winslow, Sulaimon and Matt Jones should be sucking up possessions driving inside, not coming up with anything for Okafor to do besides post up, and not coming up with anything for Jefferson to do at all, should still be hung on K.

NC State would've been a packed man to man opponent. They make 3s but don't like shooting 3s, so it seems appropriate to go man to man to contest 3s better than a zone typically does, but never extend beyond the arc to the point where the opposing guards are doing what they prefer to do - penetrate.

There's not much Duke can do defensively against Notre Dame. There's not much anyone can do against Notre Dame. Duke will probably go with the usual extended man to man (correctly, IMO), and Notre Dame will probably put up big numbers, and the media dumbs will probably say K has lost it again because he let Notre Dame's offense score a lot.

Against Virginia and Virginia Tech, who make 3s but don't like shooting 3s, same idea as NC State.

If K is really willing to go zone in 10 out of the remaining 14 games, the defense shouldn't be a problem anymore. These opponents don't even have arguably zone-able offenses; they're inarguably atrocious and reluctant 3pt shooting teams. If K had continued to forge ahead with his no-3s extended man to man against this particular schedule, all hope would've been lost.
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Great post. I'm wondering if we should also care about these teams' Oreb%. Maybe not, because if we're going to make other teams better at this as a result of our zone, it's going to make everyone better (the teams who are bad at it become OK at it in our game, and the teams who are good become great, etc). But I dont know if there is a linear increase from team to team. I wonder if a team that's great at it like UNC (top 3 in the nation) and looks to attack the offensive glass as a key part of it's strategy would just demoralize us so much on the offensive glass (like Butler did to them) that it wouldn't be that effective. I guess we'll see what they do with Syracuse next week; maybe that will provide a good test.

Staying on UNC for a moment, and introducing some eye test (sorry), I'm wondering if man is still best against them. It seems to me that the reason for needing the zone is to stop the absurd amount of PnR and dribble penetration that's happening by opposing guards, leading to easy layups. But is that UNC's game? I feel like they get a lot of their easy 2s off of offensive boards and less as a result of penetrating guards, which argues for more man. Who do they have that will shred the defense like Rodriguez did or the way we thought Lville would? Paige's greatest threat is still the 3. He does drive but not sure he's all that quick. Don't extend because their shooting still sucks, but zone seems like it could be bad too.
 
I just think it's absurd to think that K will play zone for more than another game or two. He's just shaking things up like he did last year with his mid season platoon system.
 
Against UNC a sagging man-to-man (and no, I'm not talking about a lemon party...that would be a saggy man-on-man) seems like the right strategy. Worked brilliantly in 2013.

As for rebounding, yeah our defensive rebounding could be better. But it's hard for me to get too upset when we have a rebounding margin of +7. Compare that to our typical teams.
 
I'm only worried about it in a 2-3 zone context, so this season's stats to date may not be too relevant. Syracuse, who typically has very big lineups, has recorded the following ranks in DREB% in the last 5 years: 211, 341, 281, 175, 192.
 
Oh yeah, I agree. But since I don't actually expect the zone to continue, I'm not too worried about it.

Sagging man-to-man shouldn't have that problem, I would think. In theory the more you help in the lane, the more people in position to rebound. I dunno.
 
rome8180 said:
Oh yeah, I agree. But since I don't actually expect the zone to continue, I'm not too worried about it.

Sagging man-to-man shouldn't have that problem, I would think. In theory the more you help in the lane, the more people in position to rebound. I dunno.
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In theory, in M2M you "box out" your man, whereas in zone you box out your area. Therefore, your box out assignment is more difficult in zone because you have to find someone to box out.

Since K doesn't teach boxing out, this is a theoretical post like STPFS's post about Duke zoning opponents.
 
I don't see how extended man is the correct strategy for anything. Extended to 22-25 feet? Sure, why not. Extended to halfcourt? All it does is put you at a disadvantage and allow more driving lanes/open shots.
 
I don't think anyone here who suggests "extended man" as a viable option means extended to the same level K likes it.
 
I feel like Duke should blowout St John's. They are a terrible offensive rebounding team with no one who can shoot 3s as well as Justise Winslow. They seem like a perfect matchup for Duke's new zone. Of course they'll get their share of runouts on all of the blocked shots.
 
That's one game where I'd expect Duke to come out focused, given the circumstances.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:


St. John's's best and most valuable player.
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You know this guy will be doubtful, and will come out of the Garden tunnel Willis Reed style, except he'll be perfectly healthy and drop 30 on us.
 
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Maybe he just means part of the experience, not part of any of the actual wins.
 
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