Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby DukeCrow » Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:18 pm

Or maybe Archie, the way things are going.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby torontoduke » Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:20 pm

Archie was so 2 hours ago.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby childress22 » Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:32 pm

Physics -- I agree that Amile passed it away too often without considering shots, but I think independent of that, he got fewer touches than he should have. I mean, with two guards (pick 2), Hood, and Parker, that's a lot of guys who do best with the ball in their hands. That said, we never ran anything off the ball to intentionally free Amile, like we did occasionally for Jabari, Hood, and Dre.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby bdotling » Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:57 am

It's silly speculating now when it's clear Justise will be everything we need, showing us how dumb we were to worry until he breaks his foot right before the tourney
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:02 am

Amile is just too good a teammate. Like Thornton, he will only make a move to score when there is a 70% chance he scores. The difference is that the array of situations where Amile has a 70% chance of scoring is broader than Thornton's. Thornton was 100% correct to be so unselfish. Amile could probably still be very efficient with 50% greater usage.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:05 am

To clarify, I mean an increase from 15% usage to 22.5%...not an increase to 65%, which would be at greater-than-Pistol-Pete levels.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby torontoduke » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:13 pm

^the one thing I think we can depend on next year is continued improvement from Amile. Whether he develops a perimeter jumper or not, I expect him to continue to get stronger and accordingly more confident
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Tue Mar 25, 2014 1:38 pm

Non-Conference Games (or potential games) on 2014-15 Schedule

1. Champions Classic vs. Michigan State (New York). MSU is likely to be much worse next year with the graduation of Payne and Appling, and the probable departure of likely lottery pick Gary Harris)

2. Coaches vs. Cancer Tournament (Brooklyn, NY) with Duke, Temple, UNLV, Stanford in the field. Temple will be terrible as they were this season. UNLV will return their core three seniors (Dejean-Jones, Roscoe Smith, Khem Birch) and add top ten recruit Rashad Vaughn- they are a likely tournament team although that group of now rising seniors underachieved this year, currently sitting at 90th in Kenpom. Stanford will lose two of its best four players to graduation, but will likely return Chasson Randle, its leading scorer.

3. Big Ten Challenge (road game). Wisconsin and Michigan are both due for home games and Duke is definitely due for a road game. Wisconsin could be preseason top 5 if they return Kaminsky, Jackson and Dekker (they lose Brust to graduation). Michigan may be losing Stauskas, McGary and/or Robinson. I would expect Duke to be either in Ann Arbor (if they keep their top talent) or Madison. Probably behooves us to play whatever team is better, because it's a "first true road game loss" in any event, so we might as well look good for the computers.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby childress22 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:25 pm

torontoduke wrote:^the one thing I think we can depend on next year is continued improvement from Amile. Whether he develops a perimeter jumper or not, I expect him to continue to get stronger and accordingly more confident


He also seemed to be one of our few guys this year for whom the game seemed to slow down -- he doesn't get rattled easily. That will be an asset on another young team.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:55 pm

So Quinn Cook will not be a captain.

Who will the captains be?

I guess Jefferson and Sulaimon.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:58 pm

Poor Quinn. Hated by Coach K, hated by fan base. He has my heart, but I probably will only watch half the games after getting disgusted partway through the season.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:59 pm

Jefferson is the only one that really seems to deserve it at the moment.

Cook and Sulaimon can get there.

WTF would we do if Jefferson didn't agree to come to Duke despite the staff giving him the Heisman for like a year.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby Topher » Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:26 pm

Probably belongs in the 2015-2016 thread but that doesn't exist yet (nor should it?) Anyway

2016 could potentially be:

PG: Tyus Jones - so
SG: Rasheed Sulaimon - sr, Matt Jones - jr, Grayson Allen - so, Luke Kennard - fr
SF: Justise Winslow - so, Semi Ojeleye - jr
PF: Amile Jefferson - sr, Chase Jeter - fr
C: Marshall Plumlee - sr

That's the championship team right there. Not 2015 with ball stoppers Okafor and Cook. 2016 is with 2 senior leaders, ultimate do everything wing, great depth at each skill, rough and tumble center, lengthy pesky Lance Thomas prototype, and pure, pass first point guard. Defense may actually get back into the 30s.

That's the team.
"I'll do what I can to help y'all. But, the game's out there, and it's play or get played. That simple." -- Tyler Thornton
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:32 pm

Redshirt senior Marshall will be so amazing.

I don't want to go too far, but that team could potentially even be top 10 in defense provided Tyus doesn't totally suck on that end.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby torontoduke » Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:19 pm

SeanMayTriedToEatMe wrote:So Quinn Cook will not be a captain.

Who will the captains be?

I guess Jefferson and Sulaimon.


Semi
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Wed Mar 26, 2014 9:37 pm

I think 2005 UNC is the best case comp for this team, but way off in experience.

Raymond Felton
Rashad McCants
Jackie Manuel
Jawad Williams
Sean May

Marvin Williams
David Noel
Melvin Scott

Jawad was actually their most efficient offensive player and had decent usage (20%). I think he got only layups and other open looks, feeding off of the attention paid to May. Okafor and Jefferson should be a fairly similar frontcourt.

No great rim protectors or perimeter defenders other than Manuel, but they ended up with the #12 defense, probably in large part due to experience and playing together for years. Winslow will definitely rebound much more than Manuel.

Felton's numbers weren't amazing. Tyus Jones could match them if he's not overrated. McCants was very good, but Sulaimon seems ready to break out.

The offense won't be a problem. The defensive rebounding should be much improved even without Jabari, since Winslow rebounds and Hood never did. Maybe Jefferson and Sulaimon will be great defenders as juniors.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:17 pm

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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby DurhamSon » Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:24 pm

270 pounds at 6'9?

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creighton = cretin
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:55 pm

There seems to be at least some focus on the 5th year transfer waiver wire, and I really can't understand why. It's not as if next year's team doesn't have adequate talent (and size) at each position. I can't realistically see a situation where we'd want or need another guy unless we're expecting a transfer.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby deepdarkblue » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:11 pm

I just read one article on Obi, so I'm an expert. I'm ready to sign him up.

In a January, 2012 high school game, Obi scored 14 points and pulled down 30 rebounds.
It was the 30th consecutive game in which he logged a double-double.
Two days before that, he scored 24 points, had 23 rebounds and six blocks.

His freshman year at Rice, he led C-USA in rebounding and was ranked 4th in the conference in FG% (59.1%)
Nationally, he was the 30th ranked rebounder overall, and the 2nd ranked freshman.
In the negative column, he was a 54.4% free throw shooter
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby Topher » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:22 pm

Obi apparently is a VERY good student and played AAU with Drummond. Since he'd sit out the one year we don't need size, I want to know who I need to funnel cash to to make this happen.
"I'll do what I can to help y'all. But, the game's out there, and it's play or get played. That simple." -- Tyler Thornton
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:47 pm

His first year of eligibility, though, would include a senior Jefferson, junior Ojeleye, senior Plumlee and (likely) freshman Jeter, no? Maybe he's better than Plumlee and Jeter, but that's a bit of a crowded frontcourt. His last two years, however, would be a different story.

Not sure if he's an NBA prospect or not.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:33 pm

He's better than Tarik Black. And Tarik Black would have led us to a title.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:16 pm

3 years of this fat *** 30% defensive rebounder after the Okafor year would be good. 30%. Helpful.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby skins » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:06 pm

Yes
Image
Image
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby aiw » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:21 pm

Look how he caresses that trophy.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby deepdarkblue » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:36 pm

aiw wrote:Look how he caresses that trophy.



Look at those hands. He would suck at your job.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby aiw » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:39 pm

If he was your doctor, you'd make sure you had a good bowel prep.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:22 am

This is as close as we'll get to a great writer writing about an issue specific to Duke basketball. Very insightful with respect to Duke's drastic end-of-game dropoff in defensive efficiency this season.

But blaming crunch-time performance on bad luck doesn’t pass the smell test anymore. It’s true that team clutch performance tends to regress to the mean over long samples; ask this season’s Blazers. Some teams and players chronically over-perform in crunch time, and others chronically **** the bed.

This is Minnesota’s third consecutive season of catastrophically bad crunch-time play. This is no longer a blip we can assume will self-correct. This is a disturbing trend, one that infects both sides of the ball.

The Wolves are a sound defensive team overall, but they’ve been bad on that end in crunch time, and one trend has surfaced across all three seasons: A team that rarely fouls in the first 45 minutes can’t stop fouling at the end of games. Only Denver has allowed more free throws per field goal attempt in the last three minutes of close games this season, per NBA.com, a carryover from the two prior seasons. Overall, the Wolves have allowed 116.1 points per 100 possessions in crunch time, the third-worst mark in the league, and one that would rank miles below the NBA’s leakiest overall defense.

Some of this is noise. The minute samples are small, and when Minnesota falls behind, it has to foul to prolong the game. About half the fouls it’s committed inside the three-minute mark of close games have been intentional.

But some of it is not noise. I’ve watched every crunch-time Minnesota foul over those three seasons, and a few trends emerge:

• Love and Pekovic tend to reach in against paint scorers. It’s as if they know they can’t block shots, but are so desperate to stop any potential scoring opportunity that they’ll risk fouls in chasing knockaways. Love has gotten better about this — it was a plague two seasons ago — but it still happens:

Image

(Note: I’d link to clips of these plays, but NBA.com’s public stats sites allow for such links on almost every play type but personal fouls.)

• Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin, two key wing free agents, gamble their way into crazy fouls all over the floor. Like, there’s no reason for Martin to be crowding Ben McLemore away from the ball here:

Image

These guys are serial gamblers, and a lot of their crunch-time fouls happen before Minnesota’s opponent is in the bonus. But those fouls also put opponents in the bonus.

• Quick opposing point guards can puncture Minnesota’s scheme. The Wolves play a conservative pick-and-roll defense in which Love and Pekovic hang near the paint to corral ball handlers instead of chasing them far from the hoop. It works in the aggregate; neither big is a major plus defender, but they both understand the scheme and approach it with solid footwork.

But when Ty Lawson/Chris Paul types dial in late, they’ve been able to either blow by those guys or bait them into fouls. Ricky Rubio is a steals hound, and his chest-to-chest defense has also cost Minny a few whistles.

That’s really the main problem here. Opponents don’t shoot a high percentage against Minny in the clutch, kill the offensive glass, or nail a huge number of 3s.


http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-q ... evin-love/
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:25 am

After watching Tyus Jones last night, I actually think that next year Duke could play at a faster tempo next season if only as a result of Jones being able to initiate offense and/or make entry or other passes earlier in the shot clock than our guards typically did this year. At least I think we'll play quicker against zones as a result of this.

Of course, it will be almost all half-court, but that's kind of what we did this year too despite predictions to the contrary.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby physicsfactor » Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:32 am

For anyone who didn't watch, Tyus actually hit the screener on a couple of screen-and-roll/pops.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby childress22 » Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:24 pm

StopThePumpFakesShav wrote:After watching Tyus Jones last night, I actually think that next year Duke could play at a faster tempo next season if only as a result of Jones being able to initiate offense and/or make entry or other passes earlier in the shot clock than our guards typically did this year. At least I think we'll play quicker against zones as a result of this.

Of course, it will be almost all half-court, but that's kind of what we did this year too despite predictions to the contrary.


I disagree on the "almost all half-court." Tyus and Quinn are both good on the break, and, I think we'll do a lot better getting defensive boards next year, which will start more breaks. Regardless of the quality of our defense, we should have a very good rebounding team next year with Justise, Amile, and Okafor (plus Plum3, Semi, etc). Even if Jahlil only hangs out at mid-court, the rest of our team is built pretty well to run.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:24 pm

Tyus actually looks to push the ball more than Quinn. I don't understand why Quinn doesn't do that more, given that's where his real strength is. Maybe it's because we've been so poor on the defensive glass? Basically, the only way Coach K is going to allow a fast break is off of forced turnovers or a long rebound. And we weren't very good at getting either of those.

Next year, we should at least be a pretty dominant rebounding team. I'm trying not to think about it, but if Jabari returns...Heck, even if he doesn't, we've basically got three guys capable of going for double digit boards every night between Winslow, Amile, and Okafor. If he Jabari stays that just means we have Amile as a rebounder off the bench.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby torontoduke » Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:29 pm

I would expect some decent contributions from MP3 as well. At minimum, I think he'll be an awesome help defender
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:52 pm

Duke didn't push as much as expected last season because our guards are not smart. Tyus seems brilliant on the break.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby rome8180 » Fri Apr 04, 2014 2:10 am

The only person who pushed off of long rebounds was Jabari. And it worked every time for seven games or so. And then it just stopped working completely.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby physicsfactor » Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:51 am

rome8180 wrote:The only person who pushed off of long rebounds was Jabari. And it worked every time for seven games or so. And then it just stopped working completely.

Those and any hilarious MP3 extreme hustling moments were my favorite plays of the season.
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:43 am

Quinn Cook ‏@QCook323 2h
@Tyusjones06 that's us next year lil bro. RiP DAD!
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby DukeCrow » Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:23 am

Need to read that tweet in context.

So Quinn will play the role of Boatright and Tyus the role of Shabazz?
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Re: Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:34 am

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