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2017 NCAA Tournament

DrKlahn

DrKlahn

All American
Joined
Oct 8, 2012
Messages
9,496
Content to follow. Starting for purely superstitious reasons.
 
Gonzaga at 10-1 stands out as good value.

Arizona and UCLA each at 12-1 stand out as bad value, though Trier has been Tatum-good for Arizona and was Tatum-missing for a lot of earlier games.
 
Even UNC at 6-1 is more than fair value, given the de facto triple bye they have. I'm going to stake a hundred or two on that certainly as an emotional hedge.
 
Objectively, a good coaching job by K to pilot the 4.5-1 favorites in the preseason through a bunch of key injuries and maniacal Grayson Allen episodes to end up as 5-1 favorites pre-NCAA Tournament.

Subjectively, K is trash.

Now the crapshoot begins. Duke winning it would be icing on the ABC cake. UNC losing is step one. Frankly, I don't care if Kentucky gets another one now that Anthony Davis already carried Calipari through the seal.
 
I still want SCAR despite the location. As long has UNC has the early games and their fans have already left, we're fine. I'm guessing SCAR Baseball has a bigger fanbase than their hoops program.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Objectively, a good coaching job by K to pilot the 4.5-1 favorites in the preseason through a bunch of key injuries and maniacal Grayson Allen episodes to end up as 5-1 favorites pre-NCAA Tournament.

Subjectively, K is trash.

Now the crapshoot begins. Duke winning it would be icing on the ABC cake. UNC losing is step one. Frankly, I don't care if Kentucky gets another one now that Anthony Davis already carried Calipari through the seal.
Click to expand...

I spent the last 15 minutes trying to convince myself that Butler could beat UNC. Didn't work.
 
UNC afternoon bracket 2nd game

Duke 7:20 start
 
DurhamSon said:
I still want SCAR despite the location. As long has UNC has the early games and their fans have already left, we're fine. I'm guessing SCAR Baseball has a bigger fanbase than their hoops program.
Click to expand...
Unless UNC gets shocked and loses to their 8/9, their fans will stick around for the Duke game. It's going to be a somewhat hostile environment. Just be thankful SC and Marquette aren't any good.
 
Easy bracket pool value picks:

8 Wisconsin (-5.5) v. 9 Virginia Tech
5 Minnesota (-1) v. 12 Middle Tennessee State
6 Maryland (-2) v. 11 Xavier
10 Wichita State (-6.5) v. 7 Dayton
6 Creighton (-1.5) v. 11 Rhode Island
 
South Carolina is favored by 1.5 points over Marquette.

Both Sagarin and Pomeroy have Marquette as 0.5-1.0 points better than South Carolina. This tells me South Carolina is getting roughly a 2-point bump for non-travel and comfort. They would not get that bump relative to Duke in round 2 (they would against Troy). Therefore, I would consider Marquette a very slightly less desirable opponent for Duke in a vacuum, without considering matchups, etc. It doesn't matter. Root for injury.
 
Duke's projected lines against the strongest team possible in each round, if Duke were to progress through the Tournament, with no consideration of venue or momentum:

1st Duke (-19) v. 15 Troy
R32 Duke (-6.5) v. 10 Marquette
S16 Duke (-2) v. 3 Baylor
E8 Duke (+2) v. 1 Villanova
F4 Duke (+3) v. 1 Gonzaga
NC Duke (+2) v. 1 North Carolina

This is the worst case scenario, and under this scenario, Duke would be about 90% to win in 1st, 70% to win in R32, 60% to win in S16, 40% to win in E8, 35% to win in F4 and 40% to win in NC.

This results in Duke having a 2.1% chance of winning the title, or about 50-1 odds.

This is also exactly what Duke's path would be if they were to keep winning.
 
Realistically, this is North Carolina's path to the national championship:

207 Texas Southern
53 Seton Hall
26 Butler
18 UCLA
15 Purdue
20 Arizona
 
aiw said:
UNC afternoon bracket 2nd game

Duke 7:20 start
Click to expand...

This is actually nice because there will be a break between the UNC game and Duke game where they clear the arena for security purposes. This tends to discourage fans from the first half to stick around for the 2nd meaning we wont get a full arena of UNC fans booing. Only 90% or so.
 
That said, the R32 won't do that so we'll get the full brunt of UNC fans on a high after blitzing some shit team by 40 in the previous game
 
Yeah, I guess it's good for the Troy game but that's it. We don't know if we'll precede or follow them on Sunday if we both move on.
 
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