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RSCI ranking and OAD/undrafted risk

niveklaen

All American
Joined
Nov 21, 2016
Messages
1,316
There seems to be a lot of inconsistency on what RSCI rankings people think indicate whether it is a failure for a player to not go OAD or to end up undrafted. Draft express has these great pages that show where/when each incoming freshman class member goes in the draft.



http://www.draftexpress.com/RSCI/2016/



I put together a chart to compare players at each rank (1-35, too lazy to go lower) in the OAD era - 10 years starting 06-07 through 15-16 freshman classes. standard small sample size caveats and edge effects for the last 2 years. Caveats aside, with only a few exceptions, OAD odds descended and undrafted odds ascended very tightly based on a player's RSCI. If you swapped 4 & 5, 8 & 10, and 15 & 16 the relationship would be almost absolute, but real life does have a bit of noise.



What I found was that players can effectively be lumped into blocks based on their rank to predict likelihood of being OAD and of going undrafted. I think it is useful to keep this in mind when projecting future OAD likeliness and discussing who was a bust.



1-6 - 60 players. 47 OAD. 5 undrafted. Duke 6-7 OAD, none undrafted. UNC 1-5 OAD, 1 undrafted

7-16 - 100 players. 33 OAD. 37 undrafted. Duke 1-3 OAD, 2 undrafted.* UNC 1-7 OAD, 3 undrafted

17-29 - 130 players. 9 OAD. 73 undrafted.

30-35 - 60 players. 0 OAD. 50 undrafted.



*our two undrafteds here are Jeter and DT. Not sure what the best way to treat them (or any of the transfers) is.

...and of course they are both edge effect players. This year's sophomores, juniors, and seniors each still have a chance to be drafted. This has essentially no impact on top 6 guys as only Cliff Alexander remains undrafted from this group. The 7-16 group has 15 guys who could still be drafted and the 17-29 has 27 so risk of going undrafted at all could be overstated for those two groups. Excluding the edge group, 7-16 has 22 of 70 undrafted and 17-29 has 46 of 91 undrafted.

The whole chart is too big to post, but here is a summary of each ranking's outcomes:


RSCI

1: 9 OAD LOTS, 1 2AD LOT BARNES

2: 8 OAD (6 LOTS (RIVERS),2 1STS), 1 2AD 1ST, 1 UNDRAFTED KANSAS
3: 9 OAD LOTS (INGRAM, OKAFOR, IRVING, B.WRIGHT), 1 2AD 1ST UCLA
4: 6 OAD (5 LOTS, 1 2ND), 1 2AD, 1 3AD (HENSON), 2 UNDRAFTED
5: 9 OAD (6 LOTS(PARKER), 2 1STS, 1 2ND), 1 3AD (LAWSON)
6: 6 OAD (3 LOTS, 2 1STS(TYUS), 1 2ND), 1 2AD LOT, 1 SR (SINGLER), 2 UNDRAFTED (MACADOO & BAD H TWIN)
7: 5 OAD (1 LOT, 1 1STS, 2 2NDS), 1 2AOD 1ST, 1 3AD 2ND, 3 UNDRAFTED
8: 3 OADS (1 LOT, 2 1STS), 1 2AD, 1 3AD(ELLINGTON), 5 UNDRAFTED
9: 2 OADS (1 1ST, 1 2ND), 5 2ADS, 3 UNDRAFTED (JUSTIN JACKSON)
10: 5 OADS, 2 2ADS (ED DAVIS), 3 UNDRAFTED
11: 3 OADS, 2 3ADS(HENDERSON), 1 SR(KELLY), 4 UNDRAFTED (JETER)
12: 4 OADS, 4 2ADS, 2 UNDRAFTED
13: 4 OADS, 2 3ADS, 2 3ADS(HAIRSTON), 3 UNDRAFTED
14: 3 OADS (WINSLOW), 2 2ADS, 1 3AD(BULLOCK), 4 UNDRAFTED
15: 0 OADS, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 6 UNDRAFTED (HICKS & PINSON & THORNTON)
16: 4 OADS, 2 3ADS, 4 UNDRAFTED
17: 1 OAD, 3 2ADS(E.WILLIAMS), 1 3AD, 1 SR, 4 UNDRAFTED
18: 1 OAD, 3 2ADS, 2 3AD, 1 SR (MASON), 3 UNDRAFTED
19: 0 OADS, 0 2ADS, 1 3AD, 3 SRS(NOLAN, ZELLER), 6 UNDRAFTED
20: 1 OAD, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 5 UNDRAFTED
21: 0 1ADS, 2 2ADS, 0 3ADS, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (LUKE, LANCE)
22: 1 OAD, 0 2ADS, 1 3AD, 8 UNDRAFTED (STRICKLAND)
23: 1 OAD, 1 2AD, 1 3AD, 7 UNDRAFTED
24: 0 OADS, 02ADS, 2 3AD (HENDERSON), 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (ALLEN)
25: 0 OADS, 1 2AD, 3 3ADS, 1 SR, 5 UNDRAFTED (ZOUBEK, AMILE)
26: 1 OAD, 1 2AD, 3 3ADS (HOOD), 5 UNDRAFTED
27: 1 OAD, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 5 UNDRAFTED
28: 1 OAD, 1 2AD (MARSHALL), 1 3AD, 1 SR (GBINIJE), 6 UNDRAFTED (SCHEYER)
29: 1 OAD, 1 2AD, 2 3AD, 1 SR, 5 UNDRAFTED (COOK)
30: 0 OADS, 2 2ADS, 0 3ADS, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (MATT)
31: 1 SR, 9 UNDRAFTED
32: 1 2AD, 9 UNDRAFTED (SEMI)
33: 10 UNDRAFTED
34: 2 2ADS, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED
35: 1 2AD, 1 3AD, 8 UNDRAFTED
 
Updated to include this year's draft:


1-6 - 66 players. 53 OAD. 5 undrafted. Duke 8-9 OAD, none undrafted. UNC 1-5 OAD, 1 undrafted

7-16 - 110 players. 40 OAD. 38 undrafted. Duke 2-5 OAD, 3 undrafted.* UNC 1-7 OAD, 2 undrafted

17-29 - 143 players. 11 OAD. 78 undrafted.

30-35 - 66 players. 0 OAD. 53 undrafted.



*our three undrafteds here are Jeter and DT and Bolden. Still not sure what the best way to treat transfers is.

The whole chart is too big to post, but here is a summary of each ranking's outcomes:


RSCI

1: 10 OAD LOTS, 1 2AD LOT BARNES
2: 9 OAD (7 LOTS (RIVERS, GILES),2 1STS), 1 2AD 1ST, 1 UNDRAFTED KANSAS
3: 10 OAD LOTS (TATUM, INGRAM, OKAFOR, IRVING, B.WRIGHT), 1 2AD 1ST UCLA
4: 7 OAD (6 LOTS, 1 2ND), 1 2AD, 1 3AD (HENSON), 2 UNDRAFTED
5: 10 OAD (7 LOTS(PARKER), 2 1STS, 1 2ND), 1 3AD (LAWSON)
6: 7 OAD (4 LOTS, 2 1STS(TYUS), 1 2ND), 1 2AD LOT, 1 SR (SINGLER), 2 UNDRAFTED (MACADOO & BAD H TWIN)
7: 6 OAD (2 LOT, 2 1STS, 2 2NDS), 1 2AOD 1ST, 1 3AD 2ND, 3 UNDRAFTED
8: 4 OADS (2 LOT, 2 1STS), 1 2AD, 1 3AD(ELLINGTON), 5 UNDRAFTED
9: 3 OADS (1 LOT, 1 1ST, 1 2ND), 5 2ADS, 1 3AD (JUSTIN JACKSON), 2 UNDRAFTED
10: 6 OADS, 2 2ADS (ED DAVIS), 3 UNDRAFTED
11: 4 OADS, 2 3ADS(HENDERSON), 1 SR(KELLY), 4 UNDRAFTED (JETER)
12: 4 OADS, 4 2ADS, 3 UNDRAFTED
13: 5 OADS, 2 2ADS, 2 3ADS(HAIRSTON), 3 UNDRAFTED
14: 4 OADS (WINSLOW), 2 2ADS, 1 3AD(BULLOCK), 4 UNDRAFTED
15: 0 OADS, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (HICKS & PINSON & THORNTON)
16: 4 OADS, 1 2AD, 2 3ADS, 4 UNDRAFTED (BOLDEN)
17: 2 OAD, 3 2ADS(E.WILLIAMS), 1 3AD, 1 SR, 4 UNDRAFTED
18: 2 OAD, 4 2ADS, 2 3AD, 1 SR (MASON), 2 UNDRAFTED
19: 0 OADS, 0 2ADS, 1 3AD, 3 SRS(NOLAN, ZELLER), 7 UNDRAFTED
20: 1 OAD, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 6 UNDRAFTED
21: 0 1ADS, 3 2ADS(LUKE), 0 3ADS, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (LANCE)
22: 1 OAD, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 7 UNDRAFTED (STRICKLAND)
23: 1 OAD, 1 2AD, 1 3AD, 8 UNDRAFTED
24: 0 OADS, 1 2ADS, 2 3AD (HENDERSON), 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (ALLEN)
25: 0 OADS, 1 2AD, 3 3ADS, 1 SR, 6 UNDRAFTED (ZOUBEK, AMILE)
26: 1 OAD, 2 2AD, 3 3ADS (HOOD), 5 UNDRAFTED
27: 1 OAD, 2 2ADS, 1 3AD, 1 SR, 6 UNDRAFTED
28: 1 OAD, 1 2AD (MARSHALL), 1 3AD, 1 SR (GBINIJE), 7 UNDRAFTED (SCHEYER)
29: 1 OAD, 1 2AD, 2 3AD, 1 SR, 5 UNDRAFTED (COOK)
30: 1 OADS (BRADLEY), 2 2ADS, 0 3ADS, 1 SR, 7 UNDRAFTED (MATT)
31: 0 OADS, 1 SR, 10 UNDRAFTED
32: 0 OADS, 2 2AD, 1 SR (SEMI), 8 UNDRAFTED
33: 0 OADS, 11 UNDRAFTED
34: 0 OADS, 2 2ADS, 1 SR, 8 UNDRAFTED
35: 0 OADS, 1 2AD, 1 3AD, 9 UNDRAFTED
 

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