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Fucked Up Lists

Looks Ken would have 01 Duke at roughly +36 AdjEM which would put them at #3 on the list. IIRC 19 Duke was at ~36 as well going into the Zion show game. Who knows if it would have held up for the rest of the season, but maybe the other guys wouldn’t have crumbled as badly without the added exposure to their warts with Zion out.
 
Yeah, and even if we slipped a bit we still probably would have made the list. The bottom teams on that list are around 33.
 



Those 13-seeds are all fairly close on Sagarin. Duke would be favored by about 7-8 points over them. UNC maybe 1 point less.

Setting aside UNC being pretty bad, this is actually the worst case kind of season for Duke, after looking closer. If your aspiration as a fan is to merely avoid the Mercer-type embarrassment from Duke basketball each season, this is about as bad a setup as it gets. The mainstream won’t care that Mercer was a 12-point underdog and these 13s are only 7-point underdogs - Duke losing a 3/14 or 4/13 1st round matchup is a national celebration regardless. Now that COVID is over in America, there might be riots in the street for this. What a disaster Scheyer’s first year is heading toward.
 
To the best of my recollection, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Duke lose to a 12 or 13 seed, so that’s what I’m cheering for.
 
St. Peter's beating Purdue. Lol. This list just gets worse and worse the more you look at it. I swear these analysts have brain damage or are catering to people with brain damage. I don't see how you can cover the sport for decades and have so little historical sense.

Duke over UNLV? NC State over Houston? No, we'll pick a 15 seed beating a vulnerable 3 seed after they already beat a 2 seed.
 
For my money UVA-UMBC will always be #1, even if we see more 16 seeds pull off shockers in the future. Not only did the Cavs lose, they were blown the fuck out by 20 points! It was the ultimate Hoo meltdown game.
Especially when you consider that UVA getting blown out by 20 is like another team getting blown out by 40. I mean, how many 20-point losses have they had, period, since Bennett became coach?
 
For my money UVA-UMBC will always be #1, even if we see more 16 seeds pull off shockers in the future. Not only did the Cavs lose, they were blown the fuck out by 20 points! It was the ultimate Hoo meltdown game.
The thing I remember most about that game was Bennett having no cards to play while they were getting a train run on them. They were still doing their brutal, time consuming offense down big with like 6 minutes to play.
 
UMBC completely dismantled their defense. I've never seen a UVA team not be able to dictate tempo and make teams play their disgusting style. But UMBC was literally getting transition lobs off of dead balls.
 

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