Game Thread [2019-20] #2 Duke at Georgia Tech

[DurhamSon]

Duke (3-0) @ Georgia Tech (2-2)
AdjEff: #1 (#4/#3) @ #87 (#210/#31)

TV: 9pm EST, ACC Network

Line: Duke -12
Pomeroy: Duke 74, GT 62
Injuries: Moore (hand)
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History:

Duke is 59-19 against GTech in the Coach K era (3-0 in the Pastner era)


Games in Atlanta with the current coaching staffs:

2018: Duke 80, Tech 69 - Despite no Bagley, Carter dominates in his home town in a game not as close as the final score indicated.

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Duke has not lost to this team since Scheyer was point guard, and probably will not tonight either.

Somehow this team scored 96 in Chapel Hill, but that probably has more to do with UNC ineptitude. They are careless with the ball, in the bottom 10%ile of turnover percentage, which bodes well for us scoring against a defense otherwise respectable in the half court setting. Terrible free throw shooting team as well, so it wouldn't be the worst thing to gamble a lot. Given how terrible they are across the board offensively, except just mediocre on two point shots, it should be fairly easy to stop them unless something weird happens like that time they came into Cameron and hit a bunch of threes. I would also imagine that Duke will comfortably have more fans in the stands, so we can't even count this as a true non-B1G, non-tournament on-campus road game, the only ones that matter.

 

[bluedevilruss]

Outside of that Alvanado guy getting hot from three, I can't see how they keep this close. Garrison Brooks scored 35 on them. Big Hoss should feast.

 

[rhfarmer]

Nice work @DurhamSon

Kenpom suggesting Duke only scores 74 seems off to me.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Their offense relies on Jose Alvarado the same way UNC’s offense relies on Cole Anthony, though not nearly as much by volume, and Alvarado has only played 6 full games this season, including the last 5.

He’s healthy now and, although he’s not very good offensively (can’t shoot), the offense runs through him and needs him to function at a basic level (28% assist rate; no one else above 18%).

That’s the main issue with this game, IMO. GT is possibly significantly better than their season-long numbers indicate. Against the defense of Jones and Goldwire, however, an opposing point guard shouldn’t matter much.

 

[DurhamSon]

Outside of that Alvanado guy getting hot from three, I can't see how they keep this close. Garrison Brooks scored 35 on them. Big Hoss should feast.

FWIW even accounting for the games since he's returned, Bart has them even worse over that span than the whole season overall.

 

[skins]

Can someone get the sportsbook open for this game?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I don't know what Torvik is doing, and I would hesitate to ever use his data. Pomeroy had GT at 66 to start the season, then Alvarado played his usual big minutes in the 1st game and GT rose to 60. Then Alvarado essentially was out until GT played Boise State 5 games ago (it looks like he played one half in GT's 3rd game) and GT fell drastically during that time, to 111. Then Alvarado came back, getting his full minutes, and GT rose slowly to 95.

The Pomeroy data indicates GT completely fell apart without Alvarado and is now getting back to respectability with him healthy. Maybe the Torvik time window stuff is unadjusted for SOS or something, which would make it worthless.

Sagarin has this at Duke by a little over 13 points, while Vegas is saying 12, so neither Moore nor Alvarado seem to matter all that much in reality.

 

[DurhamSon]

Tech boards are reporting their first sell out all season... but they believe it's from Duke fans buying tickets.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I don't know what Torvik is doing, and I would hesitate to ever use his data. Pomeroy had GT at 66 to start the season, then Alvarado played his usual big minutes in the 1st game and GT rose to 60. Then Alvarado essentially was out until GT played Boise State 5 games ago (it looks like he played one half in GT's 3rd game) and GT fell drastically during that time, to 111. Then Alvarado came back, getting his full minutes, and GT rose slowly to 95.

The Pomeroy data indicates GT completely fell apart without Alvarado and is now getting back to respectability with him healthy. Maybe the Torvik time window stuff is unadjusted for SOS or something, which would make it worthless.

Sagarin has this at Duke by a little over 13 points, while Vegas is saying 12, so neither Moore nor Alvarado seem to matter all that much in reality.

I trust in SeanMaytheonetrueGod and his opinion of Torvik's unreliable ratings. However, once SFA passes UNC on Torvik, things will have to change and this information must be spread wide and far regardless of the actual quality of his ratings. We must pump it up hard.

 

[dukeberto]

Tech boards are reporting their first sell out all season... but they believe it's from Duke fans buying tickets.

Would not surprise me to see more than half the stadium in Duke blue. Duke alums in Atlanta usually show up for this game as it is not an insanely expensive ticket to get, although more expensive than other Tech games obviously. We've even had good showings at football games, packing the visitors' section in blue.

I purchased baseline lower level seats on Sunday for $75 a pop with fees included. Got five other people I'm going with.

 

[dukeberto]

Can someone get the sportsbook open for this game?

On the book.

Duke @ Georgia Tech - 01/08/2020 9PM

Duke (-12) v. Georgia Tech O/U 139.5 Duke Win (-910) Georgia Tech Win (+575)

www.duke-forum.com

 

[physicsfactor]

Have a great time @dukeberto . I look forward to spotting your giant TDF sign. Or perhaps it’ll be a large Strongface cutout?

 

[bluedevilruss]

Tech boards are reporting their first sell out all season... but they believe it's from Duke fans buying tickets.

Would not surprise me to see more than half the stadium in Duke blue. Duke alums in Atlanta usually show up for this game as it is not an insanely expensive ticket to get, although more expensive than other Tech games obviously. We've even had good showings at football games, packing the visitors' section in blue.

I purchased baseline lower level seats on Sunday for $75 a pop with fees included. Got five other people I'm going with.

Thought about buying some tickets yesterday. If it wasn't a late game i'd make the 2 hour drive for it.

 

[torontoduke]

Have a great time @dukeberto . I look forward to spotting your giant TDF sign. Or perhaps it’ll be a large Strongface cutout?

Tyler Thornton face cutout

 

[DrKlahn]

Thought about going, but I decided to stay home and make tacos instead

 

[DrKlahn]

tacos were good

 

[rhfarmer]

Could be a good excuse to start the taco making thread.

 

[aiw]

Time for an L

 

[ZackM]

Duke by 20+

 

[dukeboy911]

great job by Capel tonight in the K Dome