DurhamSon
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Duke (5-0) at Clemson (2-3)
AdjEff: #1 (#2/#4) vs. #86 (#160/#49)
TV: 7pm 1/14, ESPN
Line: Duke -11
Pomeroy: Duke 72, Clemson 60 (86% WP)
Injuries: Moore (hand), Baker (foot).
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History:
Duke is 57-16 against Clemson in the Coach K era (9-2 in the Brownell era).
Games in Clemson with the current coaching staffs:
2018: Duke 66, Clemson 57 - Duke wins a close game with fantastic 2nd half defense
2016: Duke 63, Clemson 68 - Duke gets Blossomgame’d once again with a depleted roster
2014: Duke 59, Clemson 72 - K.J McDaniels shits all over the worst 2nd half Duke team in the K era
2012: Duke 73, Clemson 66 - Andre Dawkins explodes for 27 in a win by a road warrior Duke team
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What they’re saying - A look into the message boards of our opponents’ fans:
“Playing the best ball by far in the ACC and maybe nationally. We will have to play our best ball of the year including hit a lot of 3s. Jones will be tough on Trapp and Dawes with his sticky defense. “
“I have this gut feeling we going to beat Dook Tuesday night.Granted, I did have a red hot beef and bean burrito for lunch, but I don't think that's it. Its like a vision, an epiphany.”
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As sports-psychologically as impressive as ending the 59 game losing streak in Chapel Hill was, Clemson is still a poor team and squarely in the bottom half of the ACC. Their offense is mediocre to poor in almost all senses, and the only thing they seem to be doing well is not committing unforced turnovers. They are only a 32% three point shooting as a team, and as a whole rarely get to the free throw line, and are very poor on the offensive glass. Not one to get out on the break, they play a very slow tempo. Their main rotation only consists of 6.5 guys as well, so foul trouble and fatigue could be problems for them.
By far their best player is undersized but stretch center Aamir Simms, who as SMTTEM alluded to is both extremely proficient at getting to the line and a very good 3pt shooter at 38% - he’s the one who hit the clutch three in the Dean Dome. He also is very capable of holding his own on the glass on both ends, with some nominal shot blocking ability too. Being their most efficient offensive player, the offense runs through him. Stop him and Clemson would have a very difficult time breaking 60. If Hoss is still playing poorly, this might be a Jack White game.
On the other hand, their 6’2 PG Al-Amir Dawes makes Trevon Duval blush: An extremely poor 85 offensive rating and staggeringly high turnover rate, if Clemson is forced to rely on him, it will be very beneficial to Duke. The rest of their rotation is generally non-shooters who are mediocre scorers at best.
Defense is a different story, and they might be underrated even by efficiency as they have had terrible opposing team FT% luck. Clemson plays defense without fouling and is capable of generating turnovers, and they are pretty good as a team on rebounding opposing misses. However, they give up more 3s as a percentage of shots than just about every other team in division I, even if so far they have held opposing teams to okay 32% shooting. Hope that Hurt and Baker make the most of their opportunities here, as Clemson can only hope to win a low scoring game otherwise.
Overall I think the styles favor Duke in a matchup, and as long as Duke doesn’t have a turnover meltdown like in losses past, they should win the game by a decent margin.
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