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A low effort game thread for a low effort team.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
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- 41,231
Louisville looks like a very well constructed team that’s being killed by poor point guard play.
High efficiency shooters with low usage and low turnovers at the SG and SF spots (Ryan McMahon and Dwayne Sutton).
Stretch C with decent rebounding and shotblocking (Steven Enoch), assuming he’s having an unlucky season from 3. He shot 82% from the line and 36% from 3 last season, so his 23% 3pt this season is more likely to be bad luck than becoming a much worse shooter as a senior. Should be a true mid-high 30s guy and a tough matchup for Carey, who is going to benefit from going up against these guys before the NBA.
High usage star at the PF spot (Jordan Nwora), but he’s a bit worse on paper than you would expect. His rebounding is weak for a PF. Then again, Sutton is such a great rebounder from the SF spot that Nwora doesn’t have to do as much on the boards.
Then you see their PGs (Darius Perry and Lamarr Kimble) and realize why Louisville’s offense isn’t great. Perry’s turnover rate is unacceptable (27%) and so is his FT rate (11%), while Kimble can’t shoot (29% 3pt this season and last season). Both have sub-100 offensive ratings on usage under 20%. If Louisville somehow wins the PG battle, they will probably win the game.
On defense, Louisville looks like exactly what you would expect from packline. Allows 3s, doesn’t allow 2s, doesn’t generate turnovers. If Joey Baker doesn’t get minutes and make shots, Matthew Hurt yet again doesn’t show up for a big game, and Alex O’Connell continues being Alex O’Connell, Duke’s offense will be appalling. Vernon Carey trying to go through 2-3 Louisville defenders every possession will not cut it.
High efficiency shooters with low usage and low turnovers at the SG and SF spots (Ryan McMahon and Dwayne Sutton).
Stretch C with decent rebounding and shotblocking (Steven Enoch), assuming he’s having an unlucky season from 3. He shot 82% from the line and 36% from 3 last season, so his 23% 3pt this season is more likely to be bad luck than becoming a much worse shooter as a senior. Should be a true mid-high 30s guy and a tough matchup for Carey, who is going to benefit from going up against these guys before the NBA.
High usage star at the PF spot (Jordan Nwora), but he’s a bit worse on paper than you would expect. His rebounding is weak for a PF. Then again, Sutton is such a great rebounder from the SF spot that Nwora doesn’t have to do as much on the boards.
Then you see their PGs (Darius Perry and Lamarr Kimble) and realize why Louisville’s offense isn’t great. Perry’s turnover rate is unacceptable (27%) and so is his FT rate (11%), while Kimble can’t shoot (29% 3pt this season and last season). Both have sub-100 offensive ratings on usage under 20%. If Louisville somehow wins the PG battle, they will probably win the game.
On defense, Louisville looks like exactly what you would expect from packline. Allows 3s, doesn’t allow 2s, doesn’t generate turnovers. If Joey Baker doesn’t get minutes and make shots, Matthew Hurt yet again doesn’t show up for a big game, and Alex O’Connell continues being Alex O’Connell, Duke’s offense will be appalling. Vernon Carey trying to go through 2-3 Louisville defenders every possession will not cut it.
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I would hope that Mack coming to the ACC will help ACC teams deal with packline better due to seeing it so often, but Mack is having by far the best defensive season of his career and, incredibly, so is Bennett.
Packline will continue to spread like a virus through college basketball, accelerated by moving the 3pt line back, as long as Duke doesn’t stomp these teams. The only high majors in the top 25 of preventing 3pt attempts this season are Duke, Michigan, Texas and Arkansas. K is taking a final stand against this talent-minimization garbage.
Packline will continue to spread like a virus through college basketball, accelerated by moving the 3pt line back, as long as Duke doesn’t stomp these teams. The only high majors in the top 25 of preventing 3pt attempts this season are Duke, Michigan, Texas and Arkansas. K is taking a final stand against this talent-minimization garbage.
physicsfactor
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Who does Hurt guard in this game? Nwora would torch him, and UL’s centers are physical on the block if they like the matchup. I can’t see him chasing McMahon around screens.
DurhamSon
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History:
Duke is 6-6 against Louisville in the Coach K era (1-0 in the Mack era)
Games in Durham with the current coaching staffs:
None
We're 3-0 at home against them since they joined the ACC, however, including a 26pt beatdown in 2018.
--
What they're saying:
I'm going with Duke by 12. Coming off a loss and them playing at home, I feel like it may be a tough game for our Cards who haven't really hit their stride yet. I am encouraged that DJ had a big impact last game against Pitt which a lot of us were waiting for, but I just don't feel like we have a chance with the way we've been playing lately. Hope that I'm wrong because I do believe in this team and I know they have great potential so we'll see.
I think it'll be close either way. Louisville absolutely can win but Duke coming off a loss in Cameron will prevail. Could see something similar to how the UK game played out in that we get down early, fight back but can't quite get over the hump. Will be the first eat my words if they pull it off! Duke 75 Louisville 70
This will take our top performance and the best, so far, of the season. Duke losing 2 in a row at Cameron is a tough proposition and one shouldn't expect.Nonetheless, I haven't seen a team, this year, that shows entire invulnerability. Add Duke to that list, too.If it is deemed a toss up, give me the Cards
Ville 74
Dukies 72
DJ plays big with double digit scoring and leads in assists. My man, Sutton, plays like a force and adds a double-double. To win, Nwora has to be on point and high percentage.
Two stats are most prominent...we have no one who can match up w/ Carey...avg only 24 min/game BUT he’s currently running at an amazing 18/9 clip. Second stat, even more daunting?? They have TEN players avg 14 min per game. Simply too much firepower, too much K, too much Cameron....too much everything. Lick our wounds, learn from it, & move on.
Duke 77-65.
GO CARDS!!
We have virtually the same team as last year. Zion, Reddish abs Barrett are not walking through that door. Our guys have already won some tough road games. I expect this to be another win on our roadshow. It will be a tough game but we come away giving Duke a loss at home.
Duke is 6-6 against Louisville in the Coach K era (1-0 in the Mack era)
Games in Durham with the current coaching staffs:
None
We're 3-0 at home against them since they joined the ACC, however, including a 26pt beatdown in 2018.
--
What they're saying:
I'm going with Duke by 12. Coming off a loss and them playing at home, I feel like it may be a tough game for our Cards who haven't really hit their stride yet. I am encouraged that DJ had a big impact last game against Pitt which a lot of us were waiting for, but I just don't feel like we have a chance with the way we've been playing lately. Hope that I'm wrong because I do believe in this team and I know they have great potential so we'll see.
I think it'll be close either way. Louisville absolutely can win but Duke coming off a loss in Cameron will prevail. Could see something similar to how the UK game played out in that we get down early, fight back but can't quite get over the hump. Will be the first eat my words if they pull it off! Duke 75 Louisville 70
This will take our top performance and the best, so far, of the season. Duke losing 2 in a row at Cameron is a tough proposition and one shouldn't expect.Nonetheless, I haven't seen a team, this year, that shows entire invulnerability. Add Duke to that list, too.If it is deemed a toss up, give me the Cards
Ville 74
Dukies 72
DJ plays big with double digit scoring and leads in assists. My man, Sutton, plays like a force and adds a double-double. To win, Nwora has to be on point and high percentage.
Two stats are most prominent...we have no one who can match up w/ Carey...avg only 24 min/game BUT he’s currently running at an amazing 18/9 clip. Second stat, even more daunting?? They have TEN players avg 14 min per game. Simply too much firepower, too much K, too much Cameron....too much everything. Lick our wounds, learn from it, & move on.
Duke 77-65.
GO CARDS!!
We have virtually the same team as last year. Zion, Reddish abs Barrett are not walking through that door. Our guys have already won some tough road games. I expect this to be another win on our roadshow. It will be a tough game but we come away giving Duke a loss at home.
Slap the Floor
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- Feb 20, 2014
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- 10,291
We win big today.
torontoduke
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- Nov 21, 2012
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- 13,129
Healthy enough, apparently. He is listed to play tonight.
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