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Here are three burning questions that well over a dozen people are asking, as we enter a potential dumpster fire of a season of Duke men’s basketball:
3. Can this be as bad as 2007?
Sure can! The 2007 team jumped out to a 14-1 non-conference record, including impressive wins over 3 teams that finished in the top 20 on Kenpom. They then went .500 in the ACC before failing to win a single postseason game, ending with a 22-11 record.
Given the strength of the ACC this season and Duke’s very real potential to lose an opening round ACCT/NCAAT game to literally any single player who can make 3s while Duke cannot, the 2007 path is well within the realm of reasonable outcomes for this 2020 team.
Mike the Master’s track record as an offensive juggernaut is well documented. In 24 years of Kenpom data going back to 1997, he has finished outside the top 13 in offensive efficiency only once—in 2007. The 2007 team didn’t merely tiptoe across the #13 barrier; they crashed through it like a Javin DeLaurier jumpshot shattering a backboard, ending at #44.
The 2007 team finished #10 overall on Kenpom, and if you don’t think this 2020 Duke team can possibly finish #10 or worse in overall efficiency, you’re probably better off killing yourself.
#TheBrotherhood
The similarities to 2007 would probably end at the overall record and numbers, rather than the components. The 2007 team played tremendous defense, whereas we have no idea what kind of defense the 2020 team will play. We don’t know if or when Killer K will switch to zone, as he did to salvage the 2018 season, we don’t know if VC2 can stay on the court, we don’t know what position Matty H. will be asked to play defensively (or offensively), etc. The 2007 team’s main problem on offense was turning the ball over, and a strength was 3pt shooting. With Tre Jones at the helm in 2020, for better and for worse, we should expect the opposite to happen.
2. Can this be as bad as 1995?
Not old enough for this. Perhaps some elder statesmen of Duke-Forum.com can weigh in on whether this 2020 team will realistically drive the Peerless Pole to get hip surgery and hang Jon Scheyer out to dry.
1. Which players will be decent?
If you like arbitrary, subjective lists, you’re going to love this--here is a list embedded within a list!
Probably Decent Key Players
A. Tre Jones
There are no signs that he has improved his terrible shooting that severely caps his potential as a point guard, but there's also no reason to believe he won't continue to be a tremendous defender and facilitator.
B. Matthew Hurt
On this team, a guy who has any kind of scoring ability is a unicorn.
C. Vernon Carey
He may have some fatal flaws against several opponents (foul trouble, stamina issues, being asked to defend beyond the 3pt line in man-to-man), but huge guys with a good amount of athleticism generally turn out to be valuable at least at rebounding and making layups efficiently in college. One glaring exception in recent memory would be Marques Bolden in his earlier years. Bolden went undrafted.
Probably Decent Role Players
A. Jack White
He knows where to be on the court, can catch a basketball, can pass a basketball, has had a few games where he can shoot above 0% from 3, can stick his arms straight up while standing between an opposing player and the basket, and knows how to stick his ass on his man while rebounding. On this team, this is a relatively elite role player.
B. Jordan Goldwire
He's not asked or expected to do much, basically just to defend someone who is trying to get past him with the ball. He does this, and only this, consistently well. As an added bonus, toward the end of last season, he was proving himself to be a better-than-20% wide open shooter, on both layups and jumpers!
C. Alex O'Connell
Terrible at everything but shooting up to this point of his career. Alas, someone like this could (and probably should) get big minutes on Duke 2020.
Could Be Okay, Could Be Trash
A. Javin DeLaurier
This is getting depressing, so I'm just going to get through the rest of this list!
B. Wendell Moore
C. Cassius Stanley
Seems to Be Better than Most of these Guys, but Won't Play
Justin Robinson
Trash
Joey Baker
*****
KANSAS
State Farm Champions Classic
New York - Madison Square Garden
Tuesday, November 5, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom Information
10 overall
16 offense
16 defense
Duke 78, Kansas 74 (Duke 64%)
Strengths (projected)
Defending 2s
Making 2s
Paying players to not win titles lolololololol got 'em!
Weaknesses (projected)
Taking and making 3s
Preventing open 3s
Limiting turnovers and creating turnovers
COLORADO STATE / CENTRAL ARKANSAS / GEORGIA STATE
No interest. These games take the season to November 21 and back to Madison Square Garden, where the final rounds of the 2K Empire Classic benefiting Wounded Warrior Project will be played.
3. Can this be as bad as 2007?
Sure can! The 2007 team jumped out to a 14-1 non-conference record, including impressive wins over 3 teams that finished in the top 20 on Kenpom. They then went .500 in the ACC before failing to win a single postseason game, ending with a 22-11 record.
Given the strength of the ACC this season and Duke’s very real potential to lose an opening round ACCT/NCAAT game to literally any single player who can make 3s while Duke cannot, the 2007 path is well within the realm of reasonable outcomes for this 2020 team.
Mike the Master’s track record as an offensive juggernaut is well documented. In 24 years of Kenpom data going back to 1997, he has finished outside the top 13 in offensive efficiency only once—in 2007. The 2007 team didn’t merely tiptoe across the #13 barrier; they crashed through it like a Javin DeLaurier jumpshot shattering a backboard, ending at #44.
The 2007 team finished #10 overall on Kenpom, and if you don’t think this 2020 Duke team can possibly finish #10 or worse in overall efficiency, you’re probably better off killing yourself.
#TheBrotherhoodThe similarities to 2007 would probably end at the overall record and numbers, rather than the components. The 2007 team played tremendous defense, whereas we have no idea what kind of defense the 2020 team will play. We don’t know if or when Killer K will switch to zone, as he did to salvage the 2018 season, we don’t know if VC2 can stay on the court, we don’t know what position Matty H. will be asked to play defensively (or offensively), etc. The 2007 team’s main problem on offense was turning the ball over, and a strength was 3pt shooting. With Tre Jones at the helm in 2020, for better and for worse, we should expect the opposite to happen.
2. Can this be as bad as 1995?
Not old enough for this. Perhaps some elder statesmen of Duke-Forum.com can weigh in on whether this 2020 team will realistically drive the Peerless Pole to get hip surgery and hang Jon Scheyer out to dry.
1. Which players will be decent?
If you like arbitrary, subjective lists, you’re going to love this--here is a list embedded within a list!
Probably Decent Key Players
A. Tre Jones
There are no signs that he has improved his terrible shooting that severely caps his potential as a point guard, but there's also no reason to believe he won't continue to be a tremendous defender and facilitator.
B. Matthew Hurt
On this team, a guy who has any kind of scoring ability is a unicorn.
C. Vernon Carey
He may have some fatal flaws against several opponents (foul trouble, stamina issues, being asked to defend beyond the 3pt line in man-to-man), but huge guys with a good amount of athleticism generally turn out to be valuable at least at rebounding and making layups efficiently in college. One glaring exception in recent memory would be Marques Bolden in his earlier years. Bolden went undrafted.
Probably Decent Role Players
A. Jack White
He knows where to be on the court, can catch a basketball, can pass a basketball, has had a few games where he can shoot above 0% from 3, can stick his arms straight up while standing between an opposing player and the basket, and knows how to stick his ass on his man while rebounding. On this team, this is a relatively elite role player.
B. Jordan Goldwire
He's not asked or expected to do much, basically just to defend someone who is trying to get past him with the ball. He does this, and only this, consistently well. As an added bonus, toward the end of last season, he was proving himself to be a better-than-20% wide open shooter, on both layups and jumpers!
C. Alex O'Connell
Terrible at everything but shooting up to this point of his career. Alas, someone like this could (and probably should) get big minutes on Duke 2020.
Could Be Okay, Could Be Trash
A. Javin DeLaurier
This is getting depressing, so I'm just going to get through the rest of this list!
B. Wendell Moore
C. Cassius Stanley
Seems to Be Better than Most of these Guys, but Won't Play
Justin Robinson
Trash
Joey Baker
*****
KANSAS
State Farm Champions Classic
New York - Madison Square Garden
Tuesday, November 5, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom Information
10 overall
16 offense
16 defense
Duke 78, Kansas 74 (Duke 64%)
Strengths (projected)
Defending 2s
Making 2s
Paying players to not win titles lolololololol got 'em!
Weaknesses (projected)
Taking and making 3s
Preventing open 3s
Limiting turnovers and creating turnovers
COLORADO STATE / CENTRAL ARKANSAS / GEORGIA STATE
No interest. These games take the season to November 21 and back to Madison Square Garden, where the final rounds of the 2K Empire Classic benefiting Wounded Warrior Project will be played.
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