DurhamSon
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Duke (12-2) vs. NC State (7-7)
AdjEff: #2 (#8/#6) vs. #60 (#47/#92)
TV: 9pm 2/19, ESPN
Line: Duke -6.5
Pomeroy: Duke 79, NCSU 71 (77% WP)
Injuries: None. Andree (Ankle)
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History:
Duke is 56-26 against NC State in the Coach K era (1-1 in the Keatts era)
Games in Raleigh with the current coaching staffs:
2018: Duke 85 NCSU 96 - Duke blows a big lead early as they are dominated by State offensively
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What they're saying:
I'm most curious as to how long our longest scoring drought will be. If it's under 5 minutes I consider that a win.
Going to see KK throw out a series of zone mixes that will befuddle K. This will be considered his greatest coaching performance as he one-ups the HOF coach from Durham.
On a level playing court we still lose by a dozen. This will be anything but a level playing court. I've seen this movie a bazillion times in the last 30 years. Kazooski will have the refs calling every touch foul against State while ignoring Dook's hack and whack defense right out of the gate. Ten minutes into the game, when we've stopped playing defense altogether out of fear of yet another whistle, it will effectively be over. 88-54.
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Notes:
A game against a bubble State team in Raleigh, with us coming off a big win and them coming off a close loss; what could go wrong?
Factoid: Duke's worst road winning % since the 2009-2010 season comes not against UNC (6-5), UVA (5-1), Maryland (2-2), or Virginia Tech (4-4), but by far comes against State (2-4). In fact they are the only team in the league Duke has a losing road record against.
For once maybe this is a State team that won't destroy us with free throws and threes, as they rarely draw fouls inside and are quite poor from deep, despite taking fewer than the D1 average. So how are they putting out a top 50 offense? It's been fairly even scoring from their starters, both their guards Markell Johnson and Devon Daniels, with the frontcourt tandem of Bryce and Funderback. They don't turn the ball over much and have capitalized inside. Subs Bevery and Hellems have proven capable of coming off the bench and carrying a scoring load as well. Johnson is particularly one of the best set-up PGs in the country, but at 6'1 Tre or Goldwire can hopefully contend with him like we saw with the guards in the Notre Dame game.
Defensively, this is a mediocre State team that to date have sustained themselves with a fairly decent block and steal rate, but on other possessions have been very poor at avoiding fouling as well as grabbing defensive rebounds. We could see Duke potentially score a lot of second chance points as well as get their frontcourt in foul trouble, suffice it that our guards aren't suddenly coughing up the ball a ton. In fact, no team in conference play has committed more fouls per shot attempt, so free throws and hitting them will probably be of high importance.
I don't want to jinx us but on paper I can't help but feel the matchup of styles really favors Duke here, though we all know the history of getting destroyed by State teams in this building that had no business beating us. Duke should obviously want to win as to keep our seeding hopes alive, though a loss doesn't necessarily kill us anymore. But really we don't want to lose our only matchup against a team that is going to get swept by the worst team in the ACC.
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