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Game Thread [2019-20] #7 Duke vs. Florida State

Outcome?

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DurhamSon

DurhamSon

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Duke (10-2) vs. Florida State (10-2)
AdjEff: #3 (#6/#11) vs. #18 (#43/#19)
TV: 7pm 2/10, ESPN

Line: Duke -9
Pomeroy: Duke 79, FSU 69 (80% WP)
Injuries: None.

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History:

Duke is 38-10 against Florida State in the Coach K era (19-7 in the Hamilton era)

Games in Durham with the current coaching staffs:

2018: Duke 100, FSU 93 - Marvin Bagley has his best game in a Duke uniform and finishes with 32/21 on 77% shooting to rally Duke to a win in the second half
2017: Duke 75, FSU 70 - Duke escapes with a 5 point win led by Frank Jackson
2016: Duke 80, FSU 65 - Marshall Plumlee's double/double paired with a big rebounding and turnover advantage helps Duke coast to a win
2014: Duke 78, FSU 56 - A foul fest as Duke takes 34 free throws in a blowout of the Seminoles
2012: Duke 73, FSU 76 - Duke loses at home on a buzzer beater against FSU's late twenty somethings.
2010: Duke 70, FSU 56 - FSU cuts in to 4 in the second half after trailing by 16, but the big three of Smith/Singler/Scheyer put them away for an easy win
2009: Duke 84, FSU 81 - Gerald Henderson puts Duke over the top in the last two minutes to win K's first senior night game in four years
2007: Duke 67, FSU 68 - Duke's worst team this generation blows a 17 point lead and can't get a shot to go towards the end for their first home loss ever against FSU
2006: Duke 97. FSU 96 - JJ and Shelden combine for 63 points as Duke ekes out a 1 point OT win, with the media obsessing about a ref suspended for a bad technical called against a Seminole player
2004: Duke 56, FSU 49 - Duhon comes up with a clutch three late, followed by a Dockery steal to remain undefeated in conference play
2003: Duke 72, FSU 56 - Duke stiles FSU defensively in an easy home win

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What they're saying:

A win Monday night in Cameron indoor stadium would be massive. Nationally televised game on ESPN, really show the world how FSU is king of the ACC this year

What a shock, the refs help Duke

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Notes:

Duke comes off a win against a bad team after playing a physically and emotionally exhausting 45 minutes just to play another game less than 48 hours later against a physically imposing defense. What could go wrong? FSU's small forward Devin Vassell is a problem and could very well be the best player on the floor Monday night. An extremely efficient scorer, he is lethal from deep and rarely turns the ball over, and can hit FTs when he has to. Naturally they have a tall starting backcourt with Forrest and Walker, both about 6'5, and both are adequete jump shooters who like to take it to the rim and make their free throws. While they "only" have to low usage 7 footers, this is a deep FSU team that can rotate out multiple NBA sized forwards that can hit deep shots AND clean up on the offensive glass.

If you're worried, I have more bad news. This is a great defensive unit, certainly playing better on that end than Duke as of late, who leads the country in both block rate -- naturally -- and also top 10 in steals. They don't bother contesting defensive boards as to get back and set their defense, and on account of trying to block everything have a habit of picking up lots of fouls, but as mentioned earlier they have the depth to survive that. Duke is going to have to play MUCH more disciplined than they did in Chapel Hill or we're going to see the ugliest version of our offense we have all year, with blowout potential if it leads to FSU fast breaks. Duke can of course win and will be favored to, but they will almost certainly need to make more threes than they have in the last two games. If we see the same stupid game plan of needlessly driving into the teeth of the defense just to hoist up some bad shot, we won't be able to stay in the game for long.

As for standings, this is a must win to have any hope of winning the league, as whoever prevails will hold a tiebreaker and still only lag Louisville by a game. Lose here, and it's likely we're locked into 3rd in the league and probably fall to the 3-line in eyes of the selection committee.
 
I think Duke wins comfortably. I don’t have a rational reason for that belief. Just think the adrenaline from Saturday carries over, and the crowd will be energetic, blah blah. Plus we’re sort of due to play a decent game from start to finish.

This will probably prove to be comically incorrect.
 
Every season there is a game that goes a little bit against the grain of conventional wisdom, where the team’s form and the quality/playing style of the opponent suggest a bad loss, but instead, Duke comes out like a house on fire and disposes of the opponent pretty easily. That game hasn’t happened yet this year. We thought it was Michigan State, but now we’ve seen enough of the Weakling of Winter to realize that it wasn’t that game and Duke is still looking for this year’s version of that game.

What I’m trying to say is, all streaks must come to an end at some point.
 
This is a huge game. We have the opportunity to notch our first signature win in ACC play, and beat an NCAAT-bound team for the first time since early December vs MSU, while strengething our hold on the East 2-seed. It's hard to comprehend just how weak our conference schedule has been so far. Played one tournament team in 12 games.
 
We have come out so flat lately. We absolutely deserved to lose against Carolina. I just can't fathom us coming out flat against FSU.

Would be nice if FSU were the deer in the headlights this time around.
 
I can’t imagine how Duke is going to score in this game unless FSU coughs it up a bunch. OAD comes with its own problems, but one thing I had gotten used to the last few seasons was big, athletic studs who don’t get pushed around by teams like Louisville and FSU. Stanley and Carey need to come up huge, I guess.
 
This is the most relaxed I've been on a game day. Normally it ruins my whole day. I think it's because I've already written this off as a 15-point loss. Anything else will be a pleasant surprise.
 
I'll break character a little and ask how do you live with an attitude like that? I mean I know there's an accepted collective consciousness of this board that plays up a shtick like that, which I do partake in sometimes, but I couldn't imagine that not completely wearing down my psyche trying to stage engaged with a state of mind like that for years.
 
I get it. A few uninspired games as of late, after such a strong start.

Of course the UNC game was entertaining and I'm happy the devils pulled it out, but there were some discouraging happenings in that one. Lack of focus and hustle stand out. Poor perimeter D as well.

FSU are a physical lot and it will be a difficult match.
 
DurhamSon said:
I'll break character a little and ask how do you live with an attitude like that? I mean I know there's an accepted collective consciousness of this board that plays up a shtick like that, which I do partake in sometimes, but I couldn't imagine that not completely wearing down my psyche trying to stage engaged with a state of mind like that for years.
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Oh, I fucking hate it. It's gotten to the point where if I could push a button and not care about Duke basketball at all, I would. I get almost zero pleasure out of it anymore. I mostly don't watch live because I feel like I'm going to have a heart attack.

This is why I've gravitated more and more to the NBA. The focus on players instead of teams and the sheer amount of games played makes it much more rewarding. Of course I still get angry about certain outcomes, but that feeling passes quickly. And I don't spent game days being an anxious wreck.
 
I feel like I'm just aging out my fandom. I'll probably keep posting here for the community, but more and more the actual basketball is not worth the tradeoff.
 
FSU is deep, long and athletic, can shoot the basketball, and is just the type of team that can out-rebound Duke, shoot the three better, and Duke beats them anyway:smilingimp:
 
And @DurhamSon your question is predicated on a false assumption anyway: that I have any control over how it affects me emotionally.

I wouldn't ever want to be a Pollyanna-ish fan, but I would happily go back to the state where I looked forward to basketball games.
 
I expect Stanley and Moore to make sound decisions with passing the ball while driving into the teeth of the defense tonight
 
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