DurhamSon
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- Oct 8, 2012
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Duke (11-2) vs. Notre Dame (6-7)
AdjEff: #3 (#7/#8) vs. #52 (#32/#107)
TV: 4pm 2/15, ESPN
Line: TBA
Pomeroy: Duke 82, ND 68 (89% WP)
Injuries: None. Carmody (Knee)
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History:
Duke is 19-8 against Notre Dame in the Coach K era (7-5 in the Brey era)
Games in Durham with the current coaching staffs:
2018: Duke 88 ND 66 - Easy win where all the starters hit double digits in a game that was never really in doubt
2016: Duke 91, ND 95 - Duke killer Bonzie Colson imposes his will with 31 points
2015: Duke 90, ND 60 - Duke notches a blowout win against Notre Dame in a year ND would represent half of Duke's total losses
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What they're saying:
We are heavily reliant on making three point shots, Duke is 10th in the country in 3pt% defense and 2nd in 3pt. makes allowed per game. We are soft on the defensive boards and they are 8th in the country in offensive rebound%. When they've struggled foul trouble (particularly to Carey and Stanley) and turnovers have been an issue for them. We rank 329th in fouls drawn per play and 287th in opponents turnover per play. My conclusion- I really wish we had beaten Virginia.
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Notes:
After losing 5 of their first 6 games against Notre Dame since entering the league, Duke has righted the ship against Brey the last three seasons with a similar string of dominance.
Following their loss at Georgia Tech, Duke is suddenly tied with Louisville in the loss column, but still do not control their own destiny as they don't have the tiebreaker. Despite a win against FSU, I think we can all agree that Duke has played poorer since the start of 2020, which comes at a time when an Irish team that lost six out of their first eight conference games has suddenly won 4 out of five, including an OT loss to UVA on the road. So the trend is not great.
As to be expected from any Brey team, they are heavily balanced towards offensive success. This team doesn't turn the ball over at all, and have a good but not great overall offense -- again, skewed by their poor play the first half the year, so probably considerably better as of late -- that plays very well within their scheme as evidenced by a high ratio of assists. They are dreadful at taking it to the basket and drawing fouls, but are capable enough shooters from distance that they haven't had to. They don't have a workhorse star, and are relatively balanced in terms of usage, but Gibbs, Mooney and Pflueger have been key cogs in wins recently. And of course they have sharpshooters, with Gibbs and his main sub Goodwin both at over 40%, not to mention their starting PG Hubb at a respectable 35%. They don't hit the glass so we'll need to keep them one and done on that end of the floor.
Defensively there's a lot less to worry about. It will look like night and day compared to FSU since they don't generate turnovers at all. Oddly enough they somehow manage to be pretty decent at limiting teams from two while also ranking the best in the country at not fouling, though likely that's a voluntary choice. If we can get in inside to Carey often, he should feast, as they are even worse on the defensive glass than they are on the other end. I foresee a lot of put-backs and second chance possessions. In conference play they've given up 38%(!) from three, and while some of that may be unlucky, our shooters will certainly have chances and we'll need them to capitalize.
Duke is likely to give up more than 70 points, but there's no reason they shouldn't be able to put up at least 80. Obviously we need this win to stay in league contention, and it would be nice to have some momentum going into the inevitable loss in Raleigh next week.
