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Game Thread [2020-21] #5 Illinois at #6 Duke

What’s your prediction, if this game is played?

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SeanMayTriedToEatMe

SeanMayTriedToEatMe

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Tuesday, December 8, 9:30pm ET, ESPN

One of the most flawed teams in Coach K's tenure has only two more games to iron out major issues before the ACC schedule starts. The good news is Duke's failures have been getting less disappointing over time; Duke only missed covering the spread by 8 points in its last game against Bellarmine, after missing by 10 against Michigan State and 29 against Coppin State. The bad news is improvement might need to take a back seat to merely surviving in the next game.

Kofi Cockburn is coming with massive size, intending to leave a trail of destruction in his wake. The reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year is 7-0 290. Illinois likes to surround him with small shooters; the next tallest player in their starting lineup is the 6-5 point guard, Ayo Dosunmu, and the rest are 6-3 or smaller. Besides Cockburn, the worst 3-point shooter in the lineup is hitting 35% this season, while the rest are close to 50% or better, albeit over only four games. On paper, this looks like the offense Duke fans dreamt of when Duke had Zion Williamson, instead of so often surrounding Williamson with even more size and no competent shooters.

It will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with for this matchup. It doesn't seem like Matt Hurt would be able to play any semblance of defense against any of the Illinois starters. Duke's most promising freshmen so far, Jalen Johnson and #5, may struggle trying to play aggressive man-to-man against quicker guards as well. There really may be no option in Coach K's eyes other than his traditional defense and 40 minutes of Wendell Moore, while Duke fans wait on more drastic changes.
 
Feels like even K will have the common sense to play Mark Williams in this one. That said, Williams is a freshman who has played 23 total minutes. I don't expect this to go well.

Can Hurt continue to carry us offensively? At some point, he'll have a bad a game, and we'll look even worse than we have. Maybe that won't be this game since they don't seem to have anyone big enough to guard Hurt.
 
Ayo Dosonmu and Kofi Cockburn are both total beasts. IMO Mark Williams will start and play heavy minutes in this game, assuming he doesn't get into foul trouble, and Tape will log the most minutes he's played of the season.
 
I think K goes small. When they zig, K zags. If there's anyone capable of gumming up the works, it's pesky gadfly Jordan Goldwire. Expect a lot of minutes with Goldy at the 5 on defense, hounding Cockburn into turnovers and charges.

On the other side of the ball, isolating Cockburn on Goldy in ball screens finally frees Duke up offensively and the layup drill commences.
 
yikes this matchup looks bad. I kinda agree with @rhfarmer i think small would be a good option, even with Hurt. They def have size and rebounding will be crucial but might be something we can capitalize on if we actually have a good shooting night. Hurt can't play D but I doubt their bigs can extend to the perimeter and guard him well either. In the end I think Duke wins or loses off the boards.
 
Wait, so playing small is the best option, but rebounding will determine who wins?
 
rome8180 said:
Wait, so playing small is the best option, but rebounding will determine who wins?
Click to expand...
not total rebounding I think we will probs lose that regardless. I'm saying go small and rebound relatively well. You know, don't give up 15+ offensive rebounds. Just make sure you rebound well defensively. Does that not make sense?
 
It does.

However, I'd argue that even if we get worked on the glass, the point of small ball is to offset that with spacing and perimeter shotmaking. That's usually how we beat UNC. There was a game where we were outrebounded 64-29,. which is just ludicrous, and we still almost won (76-72 in Cameron in 2016).

In this case, I'm not sure that small ball is the answer, since Illinois is a small team that happens to play a giant in the middle. I'm also not sure we have the shooting to making Illinois pay if we go small.
 
rome8180 said:
It does.

However, I'd argue that even if we get worked on the glass, the point of small ball is to offset that with spacing and perimeter shotmaking. That's usually how we beat UNC. There was a game where we were outrebounded 64-29,. which is just ludicrous, and we still almost won (76-72 in Cameron in 2016).

In this case, I'm not sure that small ball is the answer, since Illinois is a small team that happens to play a giant in the middle. I'm also not sure we have the shooting to making Illinois pay if we go small.
Click to expand...
Oh i didn't even know Illinois was small lol. If it is just their one big than yeah I agree. I agree with ur first paragraph too, I just mean we have to rebound well enough that they don't enjoy offensive 2 footer put backs over and over again. In that case the benefits of small ball kinda hurt cause you have to take it out of bounce every time and everybody starts in the paint doing jumping jacks trying to get a rebound. By the time you actually get to ur end shotclock is down and defense is set.

I take my answer back then. I just hope they give us something to be excited over. So far this has been disappointing. Especially cause this is my first year and I was all jacked to finally join a sick program I can be proud of and no one can call be a bandwagoner. Now I just feel like I root for the team everyone hates and it isn't even cool hate cause we aren't *that* good
 
Take your Debbie Downer act outta here
 
dookiedood said:
rome8180 said:
It does.

However, I'd argue that even if we get worked on the glass, the point of small ball is to offset that with spacing and perimeter shotmaking. That's usually how we beat UNC. There was a game where we were outrebounded 64-29,. which is just ludicrous, and we still almost won (76-72 in Cameron in 2016).

In this case, I'm not sure that small ball is the answer, since Illinois is a small team that happens to play a giant in the middle. I'm also not sure we have the shooting to making Illinois pay if we go small.
Click to expand...
Oh i didn't even know Illinois was small lol. If it is just their one big than yeah I agree. I agree with ur first paragraph too, I just mean we have to rebound well enough that they don't enjoy offensive 2 footer put backs over and over again. In that case the benefits of small ball kinda hurt cause you have to take it out of bounce every time and everybody starts in the paint doing jumping jacks trying to get a rebound. By the time you actually get to ur end shotclock is down and defense is set.

I take my answer back then. I just hope they give us something to be excited over. So far this has been disappointing. Especially cause this is my first year and I was all jacked to finally join a sick program I can be proud of and no one can call be a bandwagoner. Now I just feel like I root for the team everyone hates and it isn't even cool hate cause we aren't *that* good
Click to expand...
Well, next year may be a great team. And "bad" by Duke standards still means making the NCAA tournament and maybe winning a game or two. Could be worse.
 
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