Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Game Thread [2020-21] Duke at Notre Dame

What’s your prediction, if this game is played?


  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

SeanMayTriedToEatMe

Legend
Moderator
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
41,116
ajm191106mbb_unc_live008.jpg


Wednesday, December 16, 9:00pm ET, ESPN

The Duke basketball season feels more and more meaningless with each passing day, due partly to the NCAA's inept strategy or lack of strategy with respect to a global pandemic, due partly to Coach K publicly expressing his desire to discontinue this season, and due partly to this Duke team possibly being the worst of Coach K's career. Nonetheless, Duke-Forum perseveres with game threads for games that may not happen, which would arguably be the best case scenario for Duke fans going forward.

Prentiss Hubb is the personification of Notre Dame basketball under Mike Brey. His usage rate is 32% through 3 games and he's putting up decent efficiency numbers for the most part despite carrying that load. As you would expect with that kind of usage, his raw numbers are great; he would be a leading ACC POY candidate if his team weren't so bad and if this season were to allow for any ACC awards to be given. He has improved significantly every season as a shooter, starting at 26% 3PT and 67% FT as a freshman and working his way to 43% 3PT and 80% FT in a small sample size this season. His biggest problem offensively has been making shots inside the arc this season, as he's only 32% 2PT; this may be fluky (he was 45% 2PT last season), or it may be due to the poor shot selection that comes naturally with suddenly taking twice as many 2-pointers per possession than he did in the prior season.

The catch with Hubb is his defense, which, like most Mike Brey defenses as a whole, appears to be garbage. Hubb's defensive BPM is -2.1 and his defensive efficiency rating is 116. Notre Dame as a team is once again a good offense/bad defense splitter; they're top 50 in offensive efficiency and around the national average in defensive efficiency. If you are a Duke fan searching desperately for a reason to watch a Duke game, while suffering through COVID times and one of the worst ever starts to a Duke season, this is not the game for you. This Notre Dame team will probably look like the average of all others from the past two decades, except a bit worse.

Overall, Notre Dame sits at #81 on Kenpom, so they should be easily beatable in South Bend by any reasonably competent ACC team. As you know, Duke is not that caliber of team this season.
 
"This game will not be played" should be an option.

Of course, the cut-off would need to be much earlier.
 
Since 1950 Notre Dame is 7-26 all-time versus Duke Basketball. In that same span, similarly against Kentucky they are 10-38, and against UNC they are 8-25.
 
Slap the Floor's Notre Dame Preview:
Notre Dame essentially plays a 7 man rotation. They have 4 players that average 38, 36, 39, 38, and 26 minutes per game. Those 4 players are Prentiss Hubb, Nate Laszewski, Dane Goodwin, and Cormac Ryan. All four players are juniors, The first 3 were members of Notre Dame's 2018 recruiting class, and all three were 4-star recruits ranked in the top 100. Considering Brey does a good job developing talent, it shouldn't be a surprise in hindsight that Notre Dame is overachieving the low pre-season expectations laid upon the Fighting Irish.

Hubb has improved his ppg by +9ppg, and has increased his FT shooting from 71 to 80%, and his 3pt % from 34 to 41%. He takes a lot of shots, and his 40% FG isn't great (but it is a +2 improvement from last season) but he is the explosiveness to Notre Dame's motion offense. He's the most explosive scorer on the floor and has the ability to break his defender down off the dribble, which is a rare trait on this Notre Dame team. Hubb is the biggest threat, but Cormac Ryan is the straw that stirs the drink.

Cormac Ryan is a transfer from Stanford. Out of high school, he was ranked #68. He is actually a redshirt sophomore since he sat last season out. ESPN's labeling of him as a junior is incorrect. As a freshman at Stanford, he averaged 29 minutes per game, he started in 17 games, and he averaged 9ppg and 2 assists per game on 74% from the FT line and 32% from 3pt. Moving from Haase's offense into Mike Brey's motion offense has clearly untapped Ryan's offensive potential, where he has improved in every facet of the game. His FT % is now 90%, and his 3pt % up to 38%. He has increased his assists per game to 4.3 while maintaining low turnovers per game at 1.5. He's posting these numbers with a serious increase in the strength of schedule. His oRTG has increased from 96.9 to 112. This is a very good player that is a great tandem with Hubb, because Ryan's high basketball IQ and solid ball handling allow Hubb to move off-ball where he is most effective. Hubb is explosive, but averages 4.0 turnovers per game. Ryan's addition as a steady, high IQ primary ball handler that shoots well from 3 and at the FT line has paired him exceptionally well with Hubb. It's a very good back-court.

Notre Dame rounds out their scoring punch with Nate Laszewski who is 6'10, and Dane Goodwin who is 6'8. The former is averaging 17ppg on 57% from 3 and the latter is averaging 13ppg 36.4%. Lasewski can't continue to hit 57% of his 3's, but he's an excellent shooter that is a difficult match-up. Mark Williams seems like he should get continued burn in this game. ND's 5th starter is Juwan Durham, a 6'11 235lb big that has 0 3pt attempts on the season. In ND's motion offense he used primarily as an off and on-ball screener. This should allow for Williams to play. There some discussion in the pre-season about Patrick Tape being an above-average in pick and roll defense. If ND frequently runs PnR's for Ryan and Hubb with Durham, I would expect Tape to get some burn over Williams if he is struggling in coverage.

Most interesting match-up: Matthew Hurt. He will be matched up, I assume, with Nate Lasewski. They have similar profiles, both are lanky, white multi-year players that are 6'9 and 6'10 that do most of their work shooting the ball and they operate best on the perimeter. I believe Hurt has more skill inside than Lasewski does, so a key offensively will rely on his ability to score against inside and maybe draw him into foul trouble.

Battle of the backcourts: We have a young, inexperienced back-court going up against a talented and experienced Fighting Irish backcourt. Ryan and Hubb are very good, and if we are to win this game Roach and Steward will have to step up and continue their progress from the Illinois game. I expect Goldwire to continue to get big minutes as he will be important defensively. I would like to see him guarding Hubb.

Bounce back game for Jalen Johnson: After his initial outburst of Coppin State, Johnson has fallen back down to earth, and hard. Michigan State and Illinois are both athletic, physical B1G teams. Couple that with the early season struggles impacting his game, this is a big opportunity for Johnson to bounce back in a big way. Notre Dame is nothing like Michigan State or Illinois, and Duke has had 8 days off between Illinois and Notre Dame for the coaching staff to work with Johnson, and for him to just have some time off to mentally reset. He has favorable match-ups in this game with Goodwin or Lasewski being tasked to defend him. If Johnson is going to bounce back, the match-ups are advantageous to do it here.
 
We really are doing something wrong. Unless "foot injury" has just always been code for disciplinary issues.
 
I'm not sure this actually affects our postseason chances that much. He hadn't been that good and Mark Williams hadn't been that bad.
 

Chat users

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Chat rooms

  • General chit-chat 0

Forum statistics

Threads
1,065
Messages
424,173
Members
624
Latest member
Bluegrass Blue Devil
Back
Top Bottom