Game Thread [2021-22] Duke at Ohio State (Big Ten/ACC Challenge)

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Tuesday, November 30, 9:30pm ET, ESPN
Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH

The #1 team in the country faces what could very well be its toughest remaining test until the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is higher on Kenpom than any ACC team other than Duke. Columbus will still be buzzing after the football team’s win over Michigan in a de facto playoff game. Duke won’t face another true road game for a month after this.

This line is tough to predict. Anywhere from OSU by 1 to Duke by 4 would seem reasonable.

 

[DurhamSon]

Maybe not to get overconfident, but perusing their Pomeroy page it looks pretty much like a one man team, in terms of star power. They live and die by the performance of Liddell, not just his scoring but his playmaking, and if we stop him, there's really no one else to step up unless some role player gets hot. I know Liddell is leading kPOY right now but the one thing K has always been really exceptional at is coming up with game plans that hamstring these single star led teams by forcing other players to step up, especially when that player is a frontcourt guy, and certainly we have some personnel options and other wrinkles to keep the ball out of EJ's hands and interrupt his passing game. In that context I think this is actually a really favorable matchup for us. It helps they play really slow and struggle rebounding the ball defensively, which should play right into our hands and help us draw more fouls. They also seem to turnover the ball quite a lot.

Moreover, OSU's performance against P5, top 100 teams has been less than impressive to date. I think we'll win comfortably.

 

[rome8180]

I could see us having a major letdown game. But in a vacuum, we should win this.

 

[dukeboy911]

How are we underdogs according to ESPN BPI? I know it's a dumb metric, but still.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is only favored by 2.5 on Sagarin, and Sagarin has been the most bullish computer on Duke all season.

I worry much less than usual about this Duke team getting blown away in their first road game, since they appear to be anti-pussies, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just have bad 3pt luck and lose to a pretty good team. If OSU shoots like Citadel, and Duke shoots like Duke, OSU will probably win no matter what else is going on in the game.

 

[aiw]

Ken has a 50% 1 point L

 

[DukeCrow]

Watch Ahrens hit 9 threes against us and Liddell get Williams and/or Banchero in foul trouble.

 

[rome8180]

Ken has a 50% 1 point L

Surprised at that. I guess homecourt advantage is bigger than I thought.

I think we'll be a sizable favorite in Vegas though. Didn't OSU start the year much higher in Kenpom? Meaning we're dealing with baked-in data?

 

[dukeboy911]

Probably a bad idea, but if Duke are underdogs, I'm hammering the ML. I apologize in advance for the loss fellas.

 

[torontoduke]

TRUE ROAD GAME

 

[rome8180]

TRUE ROAD GAME

Doesn't count because we were forced to do it.

 

[Pantone287]

Ahrens has a 97% 3PAr. Never seen that before.

I assume Paolo is the primary guy on Liddell, which seems like about as perfect of a foil as you could ask far. They actually seem like pretty similar players in a lot of ways, and have similar physical gifts. Should be a fun matchup. AJ seems like he could match up well there too.

Their next most-decent player seems to be Kyle Young, an old 6'8 white guy who looks like he probably plays like Timme, on paper. I assume no one here knows if he tends to lurk around inside or float outside, but he seems to split time with a couple pure-big bruisers, at least.

Honestly, the only thing that will really worry me matchup-wise at this point is a team that looks like it's set up to take Mark out of the paint and/or game. We're pretty tough otherwise. Young and the other two big lunks combined for 39 minutes against UF last game, which seems like a good sign on that front.

 

[Pantone287]

Honestly, this does kind of seem like a team we should just wreck this year. It is a fair point that most of our rotation has never played in front of an opposing college crowd before, though, so hopefully there's not too much pants-shitting.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Banchero seems like a guy who would react positively to a hostile crowd.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Honestly, this does kind of seem like a team we should just wreck this year. It is a fair point that most of our rotation has never played in front of an opposing college crowd before, though, so hopefully there's not too much pants-shitting.

Muscle cramping is the new pants shitting

 

[rome8180]

Don't want to get ahead of myself, but a win in this game could seal a 1 seed for us. Barring injury or some weird collapse, I don't see us losing more than 4 conference games. A team with 3-4 losses and wins over Gonzaga, UK, and OSU at OSU should be a 1 seed (with a potential to be #1 overall).

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Kenpom has us at 15-5 expected and we rarely meet Kenpom expectations in the ACC regular season. So I'd pretty strongly lean the over on 4 losses in a 20 game schedule.

 

[rome8180]

Normally, I'd agree with you. But I think the ACC is a hell of a lot worse than Kenpom predicted and that baked-in projections are still in play. I just don't see where the losses come from. Call me Axes but 3 losses wouldn't surprise me.

 

[rome8180]

I see this league as the worst it's been since 1999 or so.

 

[rome8180]

There is no way such a strong homerish take will come back to bite me.