Game Thread [2021-22] Duke at Pittsburgh

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Tuesday, March 1, 8pm ET, ACC Network
Petersen Events Center

It’s fitting that Coach K’s final true road game will be at the most hostile arena in the world to play in. He wouldn’t have it any other way. Duke will attempt to escape The Pete with hopes of a 1-seed still alive.

Duke should be favored by around 14-15 points.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Win and the RS crown is ours. Pitt is 177 on KP. Would probably be our worst loss since the early 1980s.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

One interesting player is Mouhamadou Gueye, a 6-9 junior who transferred from Stony Brook without sitting out a year. He’s like a homeless man’s Chris Boucher at Oregon a few years ago - fairly high volume 3pt shooter who hits 38% while also having a 9% block rate. Not a good scorer inside or a good rebounder, though. It’s just 3s and blocks in his skill set. Banchero will probably guard him all game.

Great matchup for Mark, and by extension, great matchup for Duke. Pitt has a 29% usage guy who has no 3pt range, 6-9 John Hugley. Pitt should have no chance, but Duke has struggled against teams that should have no chance.

 

[DrKlahn]

It looks like Jeff Capel’s offense can’t shoot from anywhere and can’t hold on to the ball, but is incredible at getting to the free throw line. This sounds like a PlayStation offense where all you do is drive and take YOLO shots. But they are also in Virginia range at average possession length. What exactly do they do, dribble for 20 seconds and then decide whether to get fouled or turn it over?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This has a schedule loss feel to it, so it’s a good thing Pitt are as terrible as they truly are. I doubt K has any interest in prepping for this awful, irrelevant team, given the opponent and circumstances awaiting him in the next game. The players are coming off one of their best performances and have been on the road for so many games over the past few weeks; they must be looking forward to that next game, too.

If this line were closer to 4-5, I’d fully brace for a loss, but we’re talking about a 15-point dog.

 

[DrKlahn]

so many games…

If Duke wins, they will have won 8 road games in 32 days.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I think it’ll be similar to the BC game, which was our 5th road game out of 6, and only 2 days after the Clemson makeup game. Schedule worked out well with both.

 

[rome8180]

It looks like Jeff Capel’s offense can’t shoot from anywhere and can’t hold on to the ball, but is incredible at getting to the free throw line. This sounds like a PlayStation offense where all you do is drive and take YOLO shots. But they are also in Virginia range at average possession length. What exactly do they do, dribble for 20 seconds and then decide whether to get fouled or turn it over?

Given the fact that Duke doesn't foul a ton, I like that this this is the main strength of Pitt's offense.

 

[Pantone287]

Hugley looks like he's a beefy 240, so I assume Mark will have trouble guarding him one on one like he does every fat big guy. Wonder if we'd consider actually helping, given how bad the rest of the team is.

This game screams "don't watch me live". Our team will definitely sleepwalk through it, with the crowd and Pitt's team on their adrenaline kick of the season, and then hopefully wake up enough to put them away the second half. But guaranteed miserable viewing experience.

 

[physicsfactor]

Hugely is a fat guy post scorer just like the guy from Ohio St who destroyed Mark. It’ll be interesting to see how Mark does with him.

 

[rome8180]

More like Hugely.

Is it actually true that Mark struggles with fat guys? Or are we operating on info from months ago? Is there some obvious recent matchup I'm forgetting? The games where Mark has struggled the most in the ACC have involved tiny quick guards, from what I can remember.

 

[Pantone287]

I guess by "every fat guy" I really just meant Key and maybe the fat guy on VT, I think? Both of which were December games, to your point.

Should be a good barometer for where he's at with that kind of matchup, though. Either way, I'd take "burly post scorer" 5 all day over a floor stretcher like the guy on FSU. That game had a couple of the only stretches all season where it felt like Mark being on the floor was actually hurting the team.

 

[DurhamSon]

Few posts on this thread. This is a trap game that we must acknowledge on this message board lest the team looks past it!!!

but actually hard to worry about this one even for this board, even as the program has seen some major streaks go down, we still have not lost to a team that finished this bad on KP in the last twentysome years, and we’re late enough in the season that these ratings aren’t going change much. Though in seeming contrast it’s “only” a 14 point spread, and we have definitely lost games favored by more than that. Maybe that just speaks again to letdowns at home the last few years?

 

[Devilsforlife]

We actually lost @ a much better (comparatively speaking) Pitt team last year in a game I have… basically zero memory of. Hopefully that should provide a motivational boost to the returning players.

Just put them away early and pop the corks on our first RS title in 12 years, pls.

 

[rome8180]

So I found an article from two years ago that said K was 28-5 against former players and assistants. If we add in the wins and losses since the pub date of that article, that record is now 30-7. As far as I can tell, six of those losses were to ND and Brey. One was to Capel last year.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Brey fucking owned K back when ND first entered the ACC. Believe he won 5 of the first 6 meetings. Since then we are something like 8-1 against the Irish, only losing that miserable game at Cameron last year.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line is Duke -14.5 pretty much everywhere.

The low stakes gambling world will be rooting for Duke once again tonight, though it seems impossible that Duke would be the one to mess this bet up:

 

[aiw]

THE PETE!

 

[aiw]

ESPN and ACCN have 2 color guys: Bilas and Alexander. that's it

 

[aiw]

Both bad for different reasons