Game Thread [2022-23] at Wake Forest

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Tuesday, December 20, 6:30pm ET, ACCN
Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum

It's that time of year again when Duke plays one game over the course of 21 days. This is about as bad a game as Duke could ask for in the final exams rust spot - the first road game of the season, and it's against an ACC opponent that's certainly good enough to beat Duke but not good enough for a Duke loss to be viewed nationally as anything but a major upset.

On paper, Wake Forest appears to pack it in on defense, focusing on stopping 2s much more than on stopping 3s, and focusing on defensive rebounding more than on generating turnovers. Duke will probably need to have at least an average performance shooting 3s to win this game.

Two key players:

Tyree Applebee is finally having a breakout season in his 6th year in college, at age 24. A transfer from Florida, Applebee has had an uninspiring career until now. He suddenly finds himself with a 10.5 BPM, 128 efficiency on 25% usage, 32% assist rate and 54/44/90 shooting splits. He has gone from being a nobody last season (and all the seasons before that) to arguably being the best player in the ACC. He leads all ACC players in points per game and assists per game. There were not many signs that this was coming, so it might all be a big fluke. I think it's more likely that Applebee, like many other players, is figuring it out at age 24. The weirdness/unnaturalness comes from the fact that most players are playing professionally at this age and are figuring it out in their 3rd or 4th seasons in the pros.

Matthew Marsh is a 7-1 sophomore whom Wake recruited from England. He typically plays only about a quarter of the game, which may just be bad coaching. His numbers look great for a center, driven mainly by his 88% FG, with 17 dunks on his 25 FGA this season. Unfortunately for Wake, he doesn't appear to have any shooting ability aside from dunks - career 57% FT and 0-1 3PT.

The next game after this isn't until NYE.

 

[Pantone287]

Duke is favored by 7. Bunch of weak-faced cowards around here.

I do have some hope for Whitey looking better after finally having some real practice time. This feels like a 4-16/1-7 Roach game, though.

 

[rome8180]

Duke is favored by 7. Bunch of weak-faced cowards around here.

I do have some hope for Whitey looking better after finally having some real practice time. This feels like a 4-16/1-7 Roach game, though.

I can easily see it going the other way. I don't expect a middle ground performance from him. He'll either be terrible or hit clutch jumper after clutch jumper on the same high ball screen play we always run for him.

 

[rome8180]

I believe I said it elsewhere, but the one thing that gives me some hope is that we've been so successful at shutting down the other team's best player, Zach Edey notwithstanding. If we can limit Appleby, we should win.

Also, Scheyer went 2-0 versus Wake last year. Well, 1.5-0 (since K only missed half of the home game). So maybe he just owns Forbes or something. Still, I think the first true road game for a young team after a 10-day break is probably a bit too much to overcome.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Wake Forest just lost 81-57 on the road to a Rutgers team ranked #28 on KenPom.

 

[Devilsforlife]

We’ve only lost twice to Wake since 2009. The Jabari year and that disgusting 2020 game at the Joel where we led by 9 with 90 seconds remaining in what was the worst meltdown of the late stage K era. A loss tomorrow would make me quite angry.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Whitehead and Lively apparently both sick and are missing the game

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke’s chances have taken a hit per Vegas lines. Win probability is around 71%.

 

[aiw]

Did they give each other gonorrhea?

 

[DurhamSon]

6:30pm tip-offs are amazing, fuck the West Coast and make this the new normal

 

[DrKlahn]

Whitehead and Lively apparently both sick and are missing the game

That seems like a problem. At Wake means a minimum 30 personal fouls. This leaves us with fewer players to spread those fouls out.

 

[dukeberto]

Whitehead and Lively apparently both sick and are missing the game

GAME

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

The good news is that Vegas thinks these two top ranked freshmen are worth about a point of value, combined.

The bad news is that Vegas thinks these two top ranked freshmen are worth about a point of value, combined.

 

[DurhamSon]

The only question remaining is will Young have a 15/15 or 20/20 game

 

[rome8180]

I don't see Whitehead's absence mattering that much for this particular game. It does matter in the long run, as it's at least one less game of reps. But our guards and wings don't typically get in foul trouble. And it's not like he was scoring a lot anyway.

What could matter more here is if Flip or Young get in foul trouble and there's no one to back them up. But maybe that just means more lineups with only one big. And as @Devilsforlife mentioned elsewhere, there's no chance Lively would have stayed on the floor for longer than 10 minutes anyway.

 

[mkvl04]

The 2 who's already catching up to speed are out wow

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

As of right now, I’d be surprised if Vegas is giving any weight to Whitehead and Lively. By the numbers, Whitehead is below replacement level and Lively is completely outclassed by Young and Filipowski.

I don’t personally think cutting Lively out of the 3 bigs is obviously the best move, but I do think cutting any 1 of the 3 out of the rotation is probably a positive overall.

 

[Pantone287]

Anyone figured out which streaming app this dumb game is on?

 

[Pantone287]

Is it just ESPN?

 

[Pantone287]

I didn't see it but I'm also dumb