Game Thread [2022-23] Miami

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Saturday, January 21, 12:00pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium

An all-time great roster of names, led by the returning Wooga Poplar, has added an incredible one in Favoure Aire.

Miami is good. They have a top 10 offense. Duke would be fortunate to hold serve at home.

Isaiah Wong, 4th year junior, has made a mini-leap and runs the offense. He’s a solid all-around guard who isn’t an assassin from 3 but is respectable enough from out there to be able to break down a defense and kill you from the line.

Nijel Pack, whom Duke fans lusted over while he was in the transfer portal, is big NIL money gone wrong, as he has been merely decent this season. However, make no mistake, he would certainly be the best guard on Duke.

 

[rome8180]

We've been a completely different team at home. However, this will be by far the best team we play at Cameron. Don't fact check me on that. Just go with it.

Anyway, for that reason I picked a Duke loss.

 

[aiw]

I picked a Duke loss because I always pick a Duke loss

 

[Devilsforlife]

Larranaga always seemed to fucking shred K’s defenses. If Scheyer can keep them in check offensively, I’ll be quite pleased, even if we do end up losing due to our own shit offense.

 

[rome8180]

I wish sports-reference would allow you to break down the game logs into home and road. But you can just look at this and see how striking it is. Some of it is related to competition, but even adjusting for competition the difference seems massive.

Every game we've had with an offensive rating under 100 has been on the road. (I'm including neutral games here.)

 

[rome8180]

Our defense has also been better at home, though the difference isn't quite as extreme.

We've also generally performed better against good offensive teams who didn't play defense rather than the other way around. Miami happens to be a very good offensive team who can''t defend. They're also 296th in defensive rebounding, so we should be able to dominate the offensive glass.

I may have talked myself into Duke winning. We're fucked.

 

[Pantone287]

Duke is favored by 5 and ESPN gives us a 73% WP.

Funny that Miami is only #43 KP despite being ranked 17 in the poll. I'm choosing to interpret this as meaning not that they're lucky, but extremely clutch and will outscore us 20-0 in the final 5 minutes after we start feeling comfortable with our 62-54 lead.

 

[rome8180]

Kenpom doesn't like them that much mostly because of their defense. However, when you dig into it, it seems like maybe their defense is being dragged down by a few games.

For example, on December 7th, they allowed 105 points to Cornell. Yes, Cornell has a top 30 offense. Yes, they play at a top 30 tempo. But that's still an unfathomably bad defensive performance. They dropped from 64th to 99th on defense on the basis of that single game.

Somehow they won that Cornell game, 107-105. As far as I can tell, that score was in regulation. A truly bizarre box score that I somehow missed when it happened.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Up to 5.5 now. What the fuck? I was just at dinner with my BIL and we both guessed Miami would open a slight favorite.

 

[aiw]

 

[physicsfactor]

Oh good!

 

[aiw]

Seth so bad at this

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line is up to 6-6.5. A 70% healthy Jeremy Roach is Him.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Lol I love this place

 

[Devilsforlife]

Roach playing? Game.

 

[deepdarkblue]

"We will see how long he can go and how well he plays." I'm taking "Too long and badly" for 100, Alex

 

[Devilsforlife]

Wish we got Nigel Pack

 

[uncy12]

First to 90 wins

 

[deepdarkblue]

Foul on Mr Wong

 

[aiw]

It's interesting that a team that scores a ton off assists is such a bad passing team