Game Thread [2022-23] Tennessee (NCAA Tournament R32)

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Saturday, March 18, 2:40pm ET, CBS
Amway Arena, Orlando, FL

Bad news:

1. Elite defense; legitimately stifling around the basket.

2. Elite offensive rebounding.

3. Proven national title ceiling; blowout wins over Kansas, Texas and Alabama.

Good news:

1. Starting PG with 2x the assist rate of anyone else on the roster was injured late in the season; absence not reflected much in season-long metrics.

2. Defensive metrics possibly artificially inflated by 26% 3pt allowed (#1 in the country), despite allowing tons of 3pt attempts (#221 in 3PA prevention).

3. Lots of fouling on defense (#264 in FTA prevention); Duke is a very good FT shooting team this season.

4. Offensive rebounding is the only good thing on offense.

 

[2001Dukechamps]

 

[Devilsforlife]

2:40 tip time apparently

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

These spreads are a bit crazy already, and they’re still being weighed down by a good amount of skepticism over whether this rise is real and sustainable. Every additional win and impressive performance in this steak removes some of that skepticism.

If they beat Tennessee, they’ll probably be favored over a 1 seed. Win that, and they’ll be the prohibitive favorites to win it all. Once Sagarin updates, I think Duke will only be 2-3 points behind Purdue without any subjectivity.

 

[uncy12]

I just don’t think Tennessee can score enough to beat Duke.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

2:40pm ET on CBS. No other games in the time slot.

 

[childress22]

BartTorvik.com comparisons:

Season:
Tennessee: #43 offense, #1 defense, #4 overall
Duke: #37 offense, #15 offense, #18 overall

Last 10 Games:
Tennessee: #34 offense, #34 defense, #21 overall
Duke: #11 offense, #7 offense, #3 overall

 

[Grit]

It's weird how good I feel this team is. I'm more comfortable watching them than I was the final four/top ~6 team last year.

If Duke was given this level of respect above their metrics last year, it probably would've just made me more nervous that they were going to get embarrassed.

 

[rome8180]

BartTorvik.com comparisons:

Season:
Tennessee: #43 offense, #1 defense, #4 overall
Duke: #37 offense, #15 offense, #18 overall

Last 10 Games:
Tennessee: #34 offense, #34 defense, #21 overall
Duke: #11 offense, #7 offense, #3 overall

Last 10 games includes a mediocre win though. If you're gonna cherrypick, do it right!

I did exactly the last month. It looks even better for Duke:

Last Month:
Tennessee: #86 offense, #16 defense, #25 overall
Duke: #8 offense, #8 offense, #2 overall

 

[DurhamSon]

Last two R32 have been dogged K-fense affairs where we'd go on a hideous 2nd half scoring droughts, lose the lead late into the game, but pull it out through sheer will and luck. Hopefully we have Tenn sitting on 55 points instead of 75, which I think we have decent odds to do, meaning once we cross 60 it's over

 

[torontoduke]

Take care of the ball. Limit the run outs.

Get your ass on the nearest white/orange shirt whenever a shot goes up.

 

[CK86]

Over/under is at 128.5 right now so low scoring game is expected by Vegas books.

 

[rome8180]

Definitely take the under. I wouldn't be surprised if neither team cracks 60.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is up to 3.5 point favorites. Getting silly. 7 points off from Sagarin, though some of that is clearly explainable due to the PG injury. Still, this is way off from the computers.

No doubt they would be favored over Purdue if that game happens. I believe it would be close to a pick ‘em with Alabama if they played tomorrow. Duke is being treated like the best team.

 

[rome8180]

Duke is up to 3.5 point favorites. Getting silly. 7 points off from Sagarin, though some of that is clearly explainable due to the PG injury. Still, this is way off from the computers.

No doubt they would be favored over Purdue if that game happens. I believe it would be close to a pick ‘em with Alabama if they played tomorrow. Duke is being treated like the best team.

How much would the 2nd best team be favored over the 25th best team? I think that's what's happening here. It's a response to the last month of basketball. I would think that would be more than 3 points on a neutral, right?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

All the reputable computers account for recent performance in a fine-tuned backtested way, though, so I think Duke is basically the most subjectively dominant team we’ve seen in a while. They are the epitome of peaking at the right time with more talent than anyone else, in an expected and realistic way, given the makeup of the roster.

I don’t know what the best comparison is. I was thinking 2006 Florida (their first title team) but they lost some late games and were very highly ranked in the middle of the season. They were an appropriately seeded 3 seed who ended up rolling everyone in the NCAAT and ended up favored over an also great 2-seed UCLA in the title game. It’s not nearly at the same level of this Duke team’s prolonged yet meteoric rise. Of course, it all gets thrown out if Duke loses a game.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

Sagarin 'recent' has us as a point better (and slightly better than Purdue). Don't know if that one uses the predictor or golden mean logic, but it seems reasonable.

 

[rome8180]

Sagarin 'recent' has us as a point better (and slightly better than Purdue). Don't know if that one uses the predictor or golden mean logic, but it seems reasonable.

Slightly better than Purdue is not good enough to beat Fairleigh Dickinson though.

 

[torontoduke]

Come on Devils. Play tough tomorrow and move on

 

[torontoduke]

I'm sweating the Vols' defensive stats