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Duke gets one day to prepare for a program no one cares about and then visits the program that has arguably been the best in the sport for a while.
Clemson - Saturday, February 11, 1:00pm ET, ACCN/ESPN3
No coach, player or fan could have been bothered to think about Clemson basketball in the one day Duke had after the win over North Carolina. That includes the dozen or so Clemson basketball fans who are still probably celebrating their football team's national title.
Nevertheless, it would be nice for Duke to try their best to win this game. Clemson is certainly good enough to beat Duke anywhere.
At Virginia - Wednesday, February 15, 9:00pm ET, ESPN2
Finally, we arrive at Duke's most difficult game of the season, at least on paper. Duke has shown over the past few seasons, in head-to-head matchups and NCAA Tournament performances, that their talent advantage can overcome the consistently superior play of Virginia.
1. Virginia has been the most efficient team in college basketball over the past four seasons but has very little to show for it.
Virginia's adjusted overall efficiency is currently #2 this season on kenpom.com. They finished #3 last season, in 2016. They finished #6 in 2015 and #4 in 2014. If you believe adjusted overall efficiency is the best objective measure of a team's performance, then no one else comes close to Virginia's consistent objective dominance over that time.
In terms of subjective perception, Virginia doesn't come close to Duke. On Virginia's best day, with a 19-0 record and playing at home in 2015, up double digits very late in the game, Duke's superior talent can simply flip a switch and burn down the arena with a historically great explosion. Duke is 3-1 against Virginia over the past four seasons. Virginia has made it to one Sweet Sixteen and one Elite Eight over that time. Duke has made it to one Sweet Sixteen and won one national title over that time. Hardly anyone cares about the ACC Tournament today as anything more than a tuneup for the NCAA Tournament.
In the battle between analytics nerds and eye testers, there might be no greater peacemaker than Virginia. You could make the case that the NCAA Tournament is such an inherently random and chaotic process for crowning a champion that Virginia has simply been the victim of bad luck. You could also make the case that Virginia's lack of 5-star talent or NBA lottery picks, the kind of talent we so often see on the rosters of national champions, is the main reason for Virginia simply not holding up with matchup problems against a gauntlet of more talented teams in the NCAA Tournament or against Duke head-to-head. It seems most people would agree that both perspectives are valid to some extent.
This season for Virginia may be no different than their past few. They again lack elite talent, with no players projected on DraftExpress.com to be drafted after the season. Tony Bennett did just pull in his best recruiting class at Virginia, but the only consensus 4-star or better recruits on Virginia's roster are freshmen, and none of them were ranked in the top 25 in their class by any recruiting service.
2. Virginia slows the game down as much as possible and has some severe deficiencies on offense, but their defense is pretty much great in every way.
Watching Virginia play is not fun. Playing against them must be torture. The pace of their games is as slow as it gets - they have the second slowest adjusted tempo (possessions per game) in the country and the longest average possession length in the country. They get back on defense and make sure their opponents have as few transition opportunities as possible. They force opponents to try to score against their typically suffocating halfcourt defense.
Tony Bennett inherited a bad Virginia team when he took over the program in 2010. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Virginia's defense ranked #74 and #75, respectively, in adjusted efficiency. Aside from those two seasons, Bennett has never coached a defense outside the top 25, including three seasons at Washington State. Virginia's defense has finished #7 or better for the past four seasons.
How does Bennett do it on defense? It's no secret that Virginia packs the paint and emphasizes rim protection over denying 3-point attempts. Their defense is allowing 51.4% FG on shots around the rim, according to hoop-math.com, good for #18 in the country. Compare this with Duke allowing a poor 60.4% FG on shots around the rim, which is #207 in the country. Most of the teams ahead of Virginia in this stat play a much easier schedule, and the stat is not adjusted for competition. Virginia is one of the elite rim protecting teams in the country, and their sacrifice to accomplish this is conceding a lot of 3-point attempts - 38.1% of their opponents' shots are 3s, which puts Virginia at #227 in the country in denying 3-point attempts. Compare this with Duke allowing only a 29.5% opponent 3pt attempt rate, good for #16 in the country. The defensive approaches of Duke and Virginia are as diametrically different as it gets in the ACC.
On offense, Virginia has some holes. They are one of the absolute worst teams in the country at getting to the line, with the #344 FT attempt rate. They are around the national average at offensive rebounding, with the #176 offensive rebounding rate. Basically, if Virginia isn't making first shots from the field, they're not going to score on many trips down the court. Of course, they're great at making shots from the field. Five players in Virginia's rotation are shooting above 40% from 3 on the season. Six are shooting above 55% from 2. Somehow find a way to make them miss and you win.
3. Virginia's rotation is deep, with balanced minutes and usage.
10 players normally get meaningful playing time for Virginia. Most of these players are uninteresting. Here are the Virginia players that should have the biggest impact on this game:
PG London Perrantes, 6-2 197, senior
Perrantes has followed the typical 4-year path for unranked recruits at Virginia, becoming their key player as a senior. He plays the most minutes (31 mpg) and has the highest usage (23%), except for Marial Shayok, who ruins many offensive possessions similar to Jayson Tatum for Duke. Perrantes is a good 3pt shooter, at 41% this season, but his 3pt shooting has been highly erratic from season to season - 44% as a freshman, 32% as a sophomore, 49% as a junior, 41% as a senior - so it's fair to assume his shooting is inconsistent from game to game as well. Perrantes plays bad defense by Virginia standards - he's the worst among their 10 rotation players in defensive rating and 2nd worst in DBPM. He's also one of the best players in the country at avoiding fouls on defense (1.3 fouls committed per 40 minutes) and has a low steal rate (1.4%), so it's not clear from his stats what he actually does when Virginia is on defense.
PF Isaiah Wilkins, 6-7 225, junior
Wilkins' advanced metrics are off the charts. According to sports-reference.com, Wilkins has an offensive rating of 127, a defensive rating of 85 and a BPM of 16.0. The 16.0 BPM is absurd. Compare it with Jahlil Okafor's 10.9 BPM in 2015 and Kyrie Irving's 14.3 BPM in 2011. On a team loaded with defense, Wilkins has the 2nd best defensive rating and best DBPM. Some of his value must come from blocks and steals - he's a great shotblocker for a PF (7.0% block rate) and generates plenty of turnovers (2.8% steal rate). He's shooting 4-7 from 3 on the season, which raises the question of why he doesn't take more of them, and he's shooting 61% from 2.
SG Kyle Guy, 6-3 165, freshman
Guy (pictured above, not being hated by anyone), one of Bennett's most hyped recruits ever, came into college with a reputation for being a shooter and has not disappointed. Guy doesn't do much at a high level other than shoot 3s without turning the ball over, but he does both of those things extremely well. He's shooting 48% from 3 and his 10% turnover rate is even lower than Luke Kennard's 11%, which leads Duke. His offensive rating is "only" 120 because he's a poor shooter inside the arc (45% 2pt) and not as good as might be expected at the line (77% FT).
Duke should be heavy underdogs at Virginia but, as always, Duke will have a significant talent advantage. The main questions for Duke, which have been the main questions all season, are whether all that talent will come together in a positive way and whether the talent will be good enough or trusted enough by the coaches to step foot on the court in the 2nd half of a close game. On the other side, we know that Bennett will maximize the effectiveness of his talent.
Clemson - Saturday, February 11, 1:00pm ET, ACCN/ESPN3
No coach, player or fan could have been bothered to think about Clemson basketball in the one day Duke had after the win over North Carolina. That includes the dozen or so Clemson basketball fans who are still probably celebrating their football team's national title.
Nevertheless, it would be nice for Duke to try their best to win this game. Clemson is certainly good enough to beat Duke anywhere.
At Virginia - Wednesday, February 15, 9:00pm ET, ESPN2
Finally, we arrive at Duke's most difficult game of the season, at least on paper. Duke has shown over the past few seasons, in head-to-head matchups and NCAA Tournament performances, that their talent advantage can overcome the consistently superior play of Virginia.
1. Virginia has been the most efficient team in college basketball over the past four seasons but has very little to show for it.
Virginia's adjusted overall efficiency is currently #2 this season on kenpom.com. They finished #3 last season, in 2016. They finished #6 in 2015 and #4 in 2014. If you believe adjusted overall efficiency is the best objective measure of a team's performance, then no one else comes close to Virginia's consistent objective dominance over that time.
In terms of subjective perception, Virginia doesn't come close to Duke. On Virginia's best day, with a 19-0 record and playing at home in 2015, up double digits very late in the game, Duke's superior talent can simply flip a switch and burn down the arena with a historically great explosion. Duke is 3-1 against Virginia over the past four seasons. Virginia has made it to one Sweet Sixteen and one Elite Eight over that time. Duke has made it to one Sweet Sixteen and won one national title over that time. Hardly anyone cares about the ACC Tournament today as anything more than a tuneup for the NCAA Tournament.
In the battle between analytics nerds and eye testers, there might be no greater peacemaker than Virginia. You could make the case that the NCAA Tournament is such an inherently random and chaotic process for crowning a champion that Virginia has simply been the victim of bad luck. You could also make the case that Virginia's lack of 5-star talent or NBA lottery picks, the kind of talent we so often see on the rosters of national champions, is the main reason for Virginia simply not holding up with matchup problems against a gauntlet of more talented teams in the NCAA Tournament or against Duke head-to-head. It seems most people would agree that both perspectives are valid to some extent.
This season for Virginia may be no different than their past few. They again lack elite talent, with no players projected on DraftExpress.com to be drafted after the season. Tony Bennett did just pull in his best recruiting class at Virginia, but the only consensus 4-star or better recruits on Virginia's roster are freshmen, and none of them were ranked in the top 25 in their class by any recruiting service.
2. Virginia slows the game down as much as possible and has some severe deficiencies on offense, but their defense is pretty much great in every way.
Watching Virginia play is not fun. Playing against them must be torture. The pace of their games is as slow as it gets - they have the second slowest adjusted tempo (possessions per game) in the country and the longest average possession length in the country. They get back on defense and make sure their opponents have as few transition opportunities as possible. They force opponents to try to score against their typically suffocating halfcourt defense.
Tony Bennett inherited a bad Virginia team when he took over the program in 2010. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Virginia's defense ranked #74 and #75, respectively, in adjusted efficiency. Aside from those two seasons, Bennett has never coached a defense outside the top 25, including three seasons at Washington State. Virginia's defense has finished #7 or better for the past four seasons.
How does Bennett do it on defense? It's no secret that Virginia packs the paint and emphasizes rim protection over denying 3-point attempts. Their defense is allowing 51.4% FG on shots around the rim, according to hoop-math.com, good for #18 in the country. Compare this with Duke allowing a poor 60.4% FG on shots around the rim, which is #207 in the country. Most of the teams ahead of Virginia in this stat play a much easier schedule, and the stat is not adjusted for competition. Virginia is one of the elite rim protecting teams in the country, and their sacrifice to accomplish this is conceding a lot of 3-point attempts - 38.1% of their opponents' shots are 3s, which puts Virginia at #227 in the country in denying 3-point attempts. Compare this with Duke allowing only a 29.5% opponent 3pt attempt rate, good for #16 in the country. The defensive approaches of Duke and Virginia are as diametrically different as it gets in the ACC.
On offense, Virginia has some holes. They are one of the absolute worst teams in the country at getting to the line, with the #344 FT attempt rate. They are around the national average at offensive rebounding, with the #176 offensive rebounding rate. Basically, if Virginia isn't making first shots from the field, they're not going to score on many trips down the court. Of course, they're great at making shots from the field. Five players in Virginia's rotation are shooting above 40% from 3 on the season. Six are shooting above 55% from 2. Somehow find a way to make them miss and you win.
3. Virginia's rotation is deep, with balanced minutes and usage.
10 players normally get meaningful playing time for Virginia. Most of these players are uninteresting. Here are the Virginia players that should have the biggest impact on this game:
PG London Perrantes, 6-2 197, senior
Perrantes has followed the typical 4-year path for unranked recruits at Virginia, becoming their key player as a senior. He plays the most minutes (31 mpg) and has the highest usage (23%), except for Marial Shayok, who ruins many offensive possessions similar to Jayson Tatum for Duke. Perrantes is a good 3pt shooter, at 41% this season, but his 3pt shooting has been highly erratic from season to season - 44% as a freshman, 32% as a sophomore, 49% as a junior, 41% as a senior - so it's fair to assume his shooting is inconsistent from game to game as well. Perrantes plays bad defense by Virginia standards - he's the worst among their 10 rotation players in defensive rating and 2nd worst in DBPM. He's also one of the best players in the country at avoiding fouls on defense (1.3 fouls committed per 40 minutes) and has a low steal rate (1.4%), so it's not clear from his stats what he actually does when Virginia is on defense.
PF Isaiah Wilkins, 6-7 225, junior
Wilkins' advanced metrics are off the charts. According to sports-reference.com, Wilkins has an offensive rating of 127, a defensive rating of 85 and a BPM of 16.0. The 16.0 BPM is absurd. Compare it with Jahlil Okafor's 10.9 BPM in 2015 and Kyrie Irving's 14.3 BPM in 2011. On a team loaded with defense, Wilkins has the 2nd best defensive rating and best DBPM. Some of his value must come from blocks and steals - he's a great shotblocker for a PF (7.0% block rate) and generates plenty of turnovers (2.8% steal rate). He's shooting 4-7 from 3 on the season, which raises the question of why he doesn't take more of them, and he's shooting 61% from 2.
SG Kyle Guy, 6-3 165, freshman
Guy (pictured above, not being hated by anyone), one of Bennett's most hyped recruits ever, came into college with a reputation for being a shooter and has not disappointed. Guy doesn't do much at a high level other than shoot 3s without turning the ball over, but he does both of those things extremely well. He's shooting 48% from 3 and his 10% turnover rate is even lower than Luke Kennard's 11%, which leads Duke. His offensive rating is "only" 120 because he's a poor shooter inside the arc (45% 2pt) and not as good as might be expected at the line (77% FT).
Duke should be heavy underdogs at Virginia but, as always, Duke will have a significant talent advantage. The main questions for Duke, which have been the main questions all season, are whether all that talent will come together in a positive way and whether the talent will be good enough or trusted enough by the coaches to step foot on the court in the 2nd half of a close game. On the other side, we know that Bennett will maximize the effectiveness of his talent.
