With the season coming to a close, there's few games left enough we can now look at probabilities for ACCT seeding:
1st place
:
~92% -- The
just win baby scenario and by far the most likely, as any permutation of 2-1 puts us out of reach of anyone but ND who we obviously would win the tiebreaker ahead of. In fact the only way we don't win it outright is if ND wins out and we do in fact drop one, so as of right now it's looking at about a ~80% of an outright win without tiebreakers coming into play. There's also some weird scenarios where Duke goes 1-2, but ND and Miami drop at least one, but at least right now that seems quite unlikely.
2nd place:
~3% -- This is the 1-2 scenario below, with having beaten UNC, or Miami failing to win out, as we'd win any tiebreaker involved with UNC (if there's a split) and/or ND by virtue of ND's win over UNC. I suppose there's also a scenario ND loses out, UNC wins out, and we go 1-2 but this isn't worth thinking about. The big take away is that by beating UNC, regardless of what else happens I don't think we can finish worse than 2nd.
3rd place :
~5-6% -- What this could look like is Duke losing out and UNC losing one of it's other two non-Duke games. if ND or Miami finish with at least two more wins, whether it's in the blob or not, since UNC lost their games to both, Duke's win against ND would give it 3rd. Very unlikely Duke loses out however, so the most "reasonable" scenario is Duke goes 1-2, Miami wins out, and ND wins out. By virtue of our loss to Miami, we're 3rd. Now if all three teams finish 15-5, meaning ND drops an easy one, the last game against UNC becomes crucial, since they're most likely the tiebeaker then used since everyone in the 3 team blob is 1-1 against each other. If we lose to UNC, we're 3rd because Miami/ND have went 1-0. If we beat UNC but somehow lost to Pitt and Cuse, I think the worse we can do is 2nd because in either case records against Wake or UVA would be used as the tiebreaker, putting us above ND if it's Wake, and above Miami if it's UVA. So it's either lose out or losing 2/3 including to UNC.
4th place:
< 1% (and probably less than 0.1%) -- I believe we would have to lose out, UNC win out, Miami win at least 2/3, and Notre Dame at least 2/3. In some weird blob where we only won one non-UNC game, UNC won out, and we ended up in ties with either ND and/or Miami, UNC lost their games to those teams too, so they would finish 4th and we'd finish 3rd.
Lower than 4th place:
0%
----
These are subject to wild swings if Duke does something stupid like lose to Syracuse this Saturday, and mild upward projection if we win (moreso if Miami and/or ND loses). But at least now we're in the best position with three games left than we've been in for quite some time, even better than 2020 (which we had just screwed ourselves badly losing to Wake, and Louisville hadn't dropped 2 out of their last 3 yet). Strikes me as interesting that we have twice the chance at finishing 3rd than 2nd, goes to show how the UNC game looms much larger for its tiebreaking potential than an unlikely 0-2 trip against Pitt/Cuse
