According to Sagarin, Duke would be favored by a little over 10 points. But I didn't make the ranges reflect that, as I don't think that's remotely realistic, since it factors in all the games with Jefferson, who I assume will not be playing.
Also, if you believe your prediction totals are in error, let me know and I will check.
If they believe they've made the proper adjustments with the week off to beat Miami and NC State without much trouble, then another week of rest for Jefferson would make sense. How many more times this season will we need to think about things like this, though?
Duke is a 9-point favorite over Miami. Based on the timing and the size of the line, I don't think Jefferson will play, which means there's really no reason for him to play two days later, either. That's fine. They better win these home games.
If he's not back for Wake, Duke isn't winning that game.
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