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Player Jahlil Okafor

Lakers will take Okafor.

The pairing of Randle/Okafor will play out as a disaster of course. Two atrocious defensive players with no ability to stretch defenses in this modern league, and both requiring very high usage percentages combining for, relatively speaking, low efficiency dinosaur basketball post ups.

I wouldn't be surprised of course if he made an all star team or two, in fact I even expect it. Hopefully he puts up enough empty stats that the label of "dookie bust" can at least be avoided.

Man though, it's gonna suck watching Karl Towns develop into anthony davis lite as he becomes a fantastic shot blocker and three point threat, creating space for Wiggins to go to work as the Timberwolves contend, while the Lakers remain a perennial first round exit.
 
Whoever takes Okafor is going to need to rebuild their entire roster to fit him. The ideal lineup with Okafor would probably be something like this:

PG Chris Paul
SG Danny Green
SF Khris Middleton
PF Serge Ibaka
C Jahlil Okafor

Let him do his post stuff and find open shooters if the defense collapses, and have the best point guard in the game to run non-Okafor offense. Defense at every position except him. Rim protecting, floor-spacing PF. It's going to be really tough to get all these pieces now that everyone in the NBA knows how valuable they are. However, Okafor will be one of a kind, and if a team can put all these pieces together, they will be the most unique team and possibly the toughest matchup in the league. Assuming Okafor doesn't simply suck against NBA centers.
 
I guess I'm more bullish on Okafor's pro future (on the offensive side of the floor) than a lot of you guys. Oak is a good passer, and any team with a penetrating point guard and a stretch 4 could be an okay fit. I think he'll learn how to be a better rim protector -- that'll be the easiest defensive thing to work on for him, he's big, and he won't need to worry as much about avoiding foul trouble.
 
It's so refreshing how much smarter NBA fans are than college basketball fans. Or at least, the ones that post on message boards, following that ESPN poll about Jordan beating lebron: It's a pretty widely accepted and understood opinion among discussion everywhere that Okafor is an antiquated bust waiting to happen, and that Towns is the guy.
 
I think Okafor compares sorta okayishly to Cousins, who, despite being an immature prick when he came into the league, is now "untradeable". Oak was definitely a worse offensive rebounder (14% to 20%), and shotblocker (4.5% to 7.5%), but Okafor had a higher ORtg (116 to 113) despite worse FT shooting (51% to 60%), because of his far better shooting percentage from the floor: 66% vs 56%. Does that shit translate? Who knows. Cousins still hasn't had a year when he shot 50% from the field.

Cousins raised his FT% from 60.4% at Kentucky to 68.7% as a rookie, up to 78% this past season. Oak may never get that good, but there's certainly hope for improvement. His form looks so much better than Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan.

The "antiquated" stuff is over the top. The fact that so many NBA teams use bigs to just screen and dunk can't be separated from the tremendously poor quality of big men prospects that have entered the league since 1999 or so. The coaches aren't benching skilled post scorers to play Mozgov, they just don't have post scorers, so they play Mozgov. Al Jefferson and Zach Randolph pass for top post scorers. Okafor, at 19, certainly has a chance to be a 6'11" version of one of those guys. Given how few guys can do what he can do, that's worth trading for. I can see the argument for Towns, but I think it's stupid as fuck to pass on Okafor to draft Mudiay or Russell, who are essentially very talented two guards with a good handle, but they're not nearly as hard to find as a guy like Okafor.
 
It doesn't really help your argument that Sacremento has been dog shit during Cousins' entire tenure, and the Grizzlies still have never won a conference finals game.
 
I hate to say that I like the Brook Lopez comparison more than I wish I did.
 
I don't think anyone here doubts that Okafor can be the next Al Jefferson or Zach Randolph, or even Cousins. We just doubt that a team would be better off giving a max contract to that player, rather than spending $8-10 million on a Mozgov or Gobert and using the extra $8-10 million to get better shooters than you could otherwise afford. Okafor is going to make all star games. He's going to have several seasons averaging 20+ points and 8+ rebounds. He will likely do this while having a net negative on court/off court team efficiency margin.
 
So much will on how effectively and efficiently he can score against guys who are as big and strong as him, and often more athletic. Maybe my expectations are colored by his poor tourney showings against guys like Poetl, but I'm not totally convinced. Hope I'm wrong.
 
1) Randolph and Cousins are far from negative off/on team efficiency guys. Jefferson has been a negative, though.

2) I think your line of argument might make sense at the max deal level; fortunately, teams will have had several years to see what Okafor can do in the pros before making that evaluation. Okafor himself might only be worth 8-10 million, sure. But when you have the chance to lock him for 4 years, from age 19-23, for about 6.25 million a year, I think you've got to take it. Four years in the pros is a lot of coaching, and Jahlil's hands, wingspan, footwork, and personality are all rather atypically positive compared to the big guys (except Anthony Davis) who've been picked in the top 5 the past few years.
 
Here are the top 10 NBA players by post up points during the 2014-15 regular season, from NBA.com's play type stats page, along with each of their team's net offensive efficiency per 100 possessions when the player is on court versus off court, from basketball-reference.com:

1. Al Jefferson +0.8
2. LaMarcus Aldridge +7.9
3. Marc Gasol +7.7
4. Zach Randolph +7.3
5. Greg Monroe -0.2
6. DeMarcus Cousins +2.6
7. Blake Griffin +14.0
8. Pau Gasol +0.3
9. Nikola Vucevic +2.4
10. Roy Hibbert -1.6

Here is the top 10 for ball handler points:

1. Damian Lillard +7.2
2. Chris Paul +19.9
3. Monta Ellis +1.3
4. Kyrie Irving +10.3
5. Russell Westbrook +10.9
6. James Harden +14.0
7. Stephen Curry +14.3
8. Kemba Walker 0.0
9. John Wall +5.4
10. Victor Oladipo +3.9

It seems like the best post scorers have much less positive impact for a team's offense than the best ball handler scorers. Can Okafor be the Shaq/Hakeem guy who breaks the trend because he's so dominant posting up? Maybe. He certainly didn't do it in college, but that's partly because Marshall Plumlee was so good. Then again, there might be backups as good as Marshall on the NBA level, too. I would rather just build a team around guard scoring and a solid defensive/rebounding big man who has a track record of 60%+ FT shooting.
 
childress22 said:
1) Randolph and Cousins are far from negative off/on team efficiency guys. Jefferson has been a negative, though.

2) I think your line of argument might make sense at the max deal level; fortunately, teams will have had several years to see what Okafor can do in the pros before making that evaluation. Okafor himself might only be worth 8-10 million, sure. But when you have the chance to lock him for 4 years, from age 19-23, for about 6.25 million a year, I think you've got to take it. Four years in the pros is a lot of coaching, and Jahlil's hands, wingspan, footwork, and personality are all rather atypically positive compared to the big guys (except Anthony Davis) who've been picked in the top 5 the past few years.
Click to expand...

It's not a money issue though. It's about the opportunity cost years down the road of passing up on Russell, Winslow, etc.


Despite the chat history, I don't hate Okafor. I appreciate his contribution as a player to a Duke title team, even though i'd say he was somewhere in between the 4th-7th most important player in our tournament run. It's not an indictment of him, but rather the oft talked about way the game is trending. Same reason I and many others laughed at the Rams drafting an RB so early.


I mean, the starting centers for this years' finals are probably going to be Festus Ezili and Timofey Mozgov. A year after two seasons of Tiago Splitter and Chris "Birdman" Anderson. And before that it was Birdman and Kendrick Perkins. And then Tyson Chandler the year before. It's not an anomaly at this point.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Here are the top 10 NBA players by post up points during the 2014-15 regular season, from NBA.com's play type stats page, along with each of their team's net offensive efficiency per 100 possessions when the player is on court versus off court, from basketball-reference.com:

1. Al Jefferson +0.8
2. LaMarcus Aldridge +7.9
3. Marc Gasol +7.7
4. Zach Randolph +7.3
5. Greg Monroe -0.2
6. DeMarcus Cousins +2.6
7. Blake Griffin +14.0
8. Pau Gasol +0.3
9. Nikola Vucevic +2.4
10. Roy Hibbert -1.6

Here is the top 10 for ball handler points:

1. Damian Lillard +7.2
2. Chris Paul +19.9
3. Monta Ellis +1.3
4. Kyrie Irving +10.3
5. Russell Westbrook +10.9
6. James Harden +14.0
7. Stephen Curry +14.3
8. Kemba Walker 0.0
9. John Wall +5.4
10. Victor Oladipo +3.9

It seems like the best post scorers have much less positive impact for a team's offense than the best ball handler scorers. Can Okafor be the Shaq/Hakeem guy who breaks the trend because he's so dominant posting up? Maybe. He certainly didn't do it in college, but that's partly because Marshall Plumlee was so good. Then again, there might be backups as good as Marshall on the NBA level, too. I would rather just build a team around guard scoring and a solid defensive/rebounding big man who has a track record of 60%+ FT shooting.
Click to expand...

I'm not surprised by the stats at all, and they make perfect sense to me [although this ends up being a pretty weird stat in the same way raw +/- is weird; Note how closely the numbers line up for the three sets of teammates: Paul/Griffin, Walker/Jefferson, Lillard/Jefferson]. But the scarcity of good post up guys is part of the point here. If you think you can get a +7 post guy like Aldridge, Gasol, etc., it's a rarer feat than finding a +10 guard -- doesn't that make it worth it?
 
DurhamSon said:
It's not a money issue though. It's about the opportunity cost years down the road of passing up on Russell, Winslow, etc.
Click to expand...

I agree that opportunity cost is what we're talking about -- I just see those other guys as less rare combinations of skills and physical attributes than what Okafor brings, so it's a bit easier to find another guy like them in the next draft if you miss.
 
childress22 said:
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Here are the top 10 NBA players by post up points during the 2014-15 regular season, from NBA.com's play type stats page, along with each of their team's net offensive efficiency per 100 possessions when the player is on court versus off court, from basketball-reference.com:

1. Al Jefferson +0.8
2. LaMarcus Aldridge +7.9
3. Marc Gasol +7.7
4. Zach Randolph +7.3
5. Greg Monroe -0.2
6. DeMarcus Cousins +2.6
7. Blake Griffin +14.0
8. Pau Gasol +0.3
9. Nikola Vucevic +2.4
10. Roy Hibbert -1.6

Here is the top 10 for ball handler points:

1. Damian Lillard +7.2
2. Chris Paul +19.9
3. Monta Ellis +1.3
4. Kyrie Irving +10.3
5. Russell Westbrook +10.9
6. James Harden +14.0
7. Stephen Curry +14.3
8. Kemba Walker 0.0
9. John Wall +5.4
10. Victor Oladipo +3.9

It seems like the best post scorers have much less positive impact for a team's offense than the best ball handler scorers. Can Okafor be the Shaq/Hakeem guy who breaks the trend because he's so dominant posting up? Maybe. He certainly didn't do it in college, but that's partly because Marshall Plumlee was so good. Then again, there might be backups as good as Marshall on the NBA level, too. I would rather just build a team around guard scoring and a solid defensive/rebounding big man who has a track record of 60%+ FT shooting.
Click to expand...

I'm not surprised by the stats at all, and they make perfect sense to me [although this ends up being a pretty weird stat in the same way raw +/- is weird; Note how closely the numbers line up for the three sets of teammates: Paul/Griffin, Walker/Jefferson, Lillard/Jefferson]. But the scarcity of good post up guys is part of the point here. If you think you can get a +7 post guy like Aldridge, Gasol, etc., it's a rarer feat than finding a +10 guard -- doesn't that make it worth it?
Click to expand...

Not if there are non-post-up centers who lead to an even greater postive net efficiency. In order to answer that you'd have to compile a list of what guys like Mozgov, Bogut, Splitter, etc., are providing.
 
DurhamSon said:
It's not a money issue though. It's about the opportunity cost years down the road of passing up on Russell, Winslow, etc.


Despite the chat history, I don't hate Okafor. I appreciate his contribution as a player to a Duke title team, even though i'd say he was somewhere in between the 4th-7th most important player in our tournament run. It's not an indictment of him, but rather the oft talked about way the game is trending. Same reason I and many others laughed at the Rams drafting an RB so early.


I mean, the starting centers for this years' finals are probably going to be Festus Ezili and Timofey Mozgov. A year after two seasons of Tiago Splitter and Chris "Birdman" Anderson. And before that it was Birdman and Kendrick Perkins. And then Tyson Chandler the year before. It's not an anomaly at this point.
Click to expand...

C'mon man. I tend to agree with your point, but Splitter started half the games over those years and played just over 15 mpg. Duncan was the center, and a critical, efficient counterpoint to the perimeter firepower.

I think the opportunity cost isn't quite as high, especially for such a polished post guy. When the Cavs can get Smith and Shumpert for nothing, it is a sign that there are LOTS of 'shooters' in the league. It's more of a way to use them effectively than actually finding them. There are also a lot of Mozgovs, Ezelis, Cappellas etc. around. Hell, you might even find a random Whiteside out there. If Okafor doesn't work out, there is no dearth of big, strong, tall guys who can rebound.

It's still a pretty big crapshoot, so why not acquire something that seems to be pretty rare - a dude with actual post moves? Ex a highly refined athletic wing - I don't think Winslow, Mudiay or Russell quite fit this definition - get the next most unique thing.
 
The only things I worry about with Okafor are the obvious things: will he shoot free throws well enough that it is not a major distraction in his career, and will he find his ideal weight and conditioning program so that he can play 30-35 minutes a night at a higher energy level than what we saw from him in college. If the answers to those questions are favorable to Okafor, then it doesn't really matter how the game around him evolves, just as it hasn't mattered to Duncan.
 
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