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The most disappointing season in Duke basketball history rolls on, speeding toward the edge of the cliff. However, the use of "most disappointing" masks an even sadder reality for Duke fans: This may simply be the worst Duke basketball team since 1995, when Duke finished 2-14 in the ACC and had Jeff Capel as their 2nd leading scorer. There would be some depressing poetry in Capel bookending the two worst seasons of Coach K's Duke tenure, first as a player and then as the interim head coach.
Duke's worst finish on kenpom.com, which stretches back to 2002, was #19 overall in the Austin Rivers season of 2012. Most Duke fans remember the Josh McRoberts season of 2007 for being particularly poor, with its lack of offensive firepower, but that team played elite defense and finished #10 overall. Duke currently sits at #11 and has been on a steady downward trajectory since starting at #1.
Duke wasn't just #1 on kenpom, of course. Duke was #1 everywhere, to everyone. There weren't many mainstream publications, websites or polls that had Duke anywhere but #1 in the preseason. Now, it seems Duke could easily finish outside the top 20, which would make this the worst Duke team in the kenpom archives. "Most disappointing" thus far is obvious and pretty much inarguable, but that's going easy on this team. It's well within the realm of possibility that this team winds up as objectively the worst in Duke's kenpom history, which is a testament to how great the program has been over the long run, but not exactly what was expected this season.
The next set of games probably needs to come with significant improvements for there to be enough time for Duke to approach the level it was expected to reach by March. Where can that improvement come from?
1. Amile Jefferson could come back healthy.
This is the easiest fix. It doesn't bode well for next season that Jefferson is the one player who can make the defense respectable, but next season doesn't matter right now. Jefferson needs to be on the court for Duke's defense to function this season. He's also very valuable on offense, partly because he's an efficient offensive player, but also because the replacements who would play less with Jefferson on the court (Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, Chase Jeter and Jayson Tatum) have been terrible offensively.
2. The right players could have the ball more often on offense.
This is another fairly easy fix. In stat geek terms, when you have certain players with excellent offensive ratings (Luke Kennard at 137, Jefferson at 124, Grayson Allen at 120 and Frank Jackson at 118, according to sports-reference.com), you generally want those players to get the ball and finish possessions more frequently than the others (Giles at 108, Tatum at 108, Jeter at 96, Bolden at 82). In eye tester terms, when you see players consistently make the ball go through the hoop, you generally want those players to get the ball and finish possessions more frequently than players who consistently brick ugly hook shots, floaters or midrange jumpers, get blocked on layup attempts, travel while backing guys down in the post or throw the ball away.
Tatum having the highest usage in the rotation by far at 29%, and Giles being tied for 2nd with Allen at 24%, have been strategic decisions by the coaches, and it raises the question of whether college coaches should place a higher priority on showcasing one-and-done caliber players for the NBA or winning games. It appears that, with this Duke team more than any other, the coaches are treating the program as a farm system for the NBA more than a college basketball program that has the goal of winning games. It's difficult to blame freshmen for taking too many shots if their coaches constantly allow it to happen. At some point, they'll need to wonder how much this "showcasing" really helps their draft stock. Does the NBA want a player who so often sets up in iso, puts his head down and takes whatever shot he can throw up? Does the NBA want a big man who so often posts up and takes awkward shots that don't hit the rim?
Hopefully for Duke fans, the coaches can find a solution that both helps the one-and-done freshmen long-term and helps Duke basketball win in the next few months. That happy solution most likely involves Tatum being told to take fewer midrange jumpers and pass to open shooters, Giles being told to pass on anything but a dunk or layup and Bolden being told to avoid shooting altogether (or being benched completely in favor of other players). To the credit of Jeter and Matt Jones, they each appear to understand their preferred roles on the team - Jeter's usage is 11% and Jones's usage is 13%.
3. The defensive awareness could improve - in particular on screens, around the rim and in transition - with or without Jefferson.
After several recent seasons of poor defense against pick and rolls and poor rim protection by Duke, improvement in those areas doesn't seem like a realistic possibility. However, there's no excuse for Duke being as awful as they've been in transition defense. Duke has neither prevented transition opportunities nor done well to defend transition shots when they happen. According to hoop-math.com, Duke is #195 preventing initial shot attempts in transition and an even more pathetic #300 in eFG% allowed in transition. This is pure laziness, mixed with perhaps an overemphasis on crashing the glass and thereby not having defenders back in transition.
The Duke players are showing as little enthusiasm in getting back on defense as Duke fans must have for the 2017 season at this point. Along those same lines, here is a half-assed look at the next four games:
Miami - Saturday, January 21, 8:15pm ET, ESPN
1. Miami's elite defense contests shots without fouling.
Miami has the #12 defense in the country. There's nothing crazy about how they pull this off - they make opponents miss a lot of shots while avoiding fouling. Miami doesn't create a lot of turnovers or rebound especially well on defense. They have the #12 2pt% allowed, #19 3pt% allowed and #7 eFG% allowed and are #7 in FT attempts allowed per FG attempt. They chase opponents off the 3pt line and prefer to give up 2pt attempts (#79 in 3pt attempts allowed per FG attempt).
On paper, this is the kind of defense that sucks you into settling for midrange jumpers. If Tatum comes out firing from midrange, where he's shooting a putrid 33% for the season, it will be a sign that very little change was implemented in practice during the week before this game.
2. Miami's slow, mediocre offense has a turnover problem but gets a lot of rebounds.
A bit of good news for Duke is that Miami plays at an extremely slow tempo, so presumably, Duke's terrible transition defense shouldn't be as big a problem as it normally is. Miami is #272 in turnover rate, which should also help Duke more than most teams, since when an opponent has gotten a shot off against Duke recently, it has frequently been an easy layup.
Miami's only real strength on offense is their #11 offensive rebounding rate, collecting 38% of their misses. Giles and Tatum have been great on the defensive glass for Duke, but Bolden and Jeter have been at the other end of the spectrum (Bolden has a 9.1% defensive rebounding rate and Jeter is at 11%). This may not be a great game for Bolden or Jeter to get significant minutes.
3. Ja'Quan Newton is Miami's Tatum.
Ja'Quan Newton on offense may be Duke's most valuable contributor in this game, similar to how Tatum on offense is typically the most valuable contributor for Duke's opponents. Newton's usage is 28%. The next highest usage rate in the rotation is 22%. Newton has a 104 offensive rating, which is 2nd worst in Miami's rotation. He has a 20% turnover rate, shoots 69% from the line and rarely takes 3s. He takes 55% of his shots from midrange, which is hideous for a point guard.
That said, Newton will probably make every midrange jumper he takes against Duke.
NC State - Monday, January 23, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
NC State is a lousy team with a coach who is just waiting to be fired. They've lost back-to-back games against Boston College and Georgia Tech. If Duke loses this one at home, it will probably mean that Duke had no answer for Dennis Smith, who is having a fantastic season and looks like a future star point guard in the NBA, and it will effectively mean that Duke's season is hopeless.
At Wake Forest - Saturday, January 28, 3:00pm ET, ACCN
1. A road game at #41 Wake Forest is, incredibly, Duke's 2nd easiest road game left on paper.
There is a significant chance that Duke finishes the season with zero true road wins. Wake Forest is a good team. Danny Manning has taken them from #120 in his first season to #41 currently. The fact that Wake Forest is Duke's 2nd best chance remaining at getting a road win this season, according to kenpom, obviously is a testament to how strong the ACC is, but also is a testament to how badly this season has gone for Duke (the game at #52 Syracuse is Duke's best chance).
For seeding purposes, if Duke manages to make the NCAA Tournament field, Duke is going to need to win some road games. Zombie nation, tie dyed shirts and an arena where Duke has a tendency to have almost its entire starting lineup foul out... this will be a challenge. A team that hopes to compete for a national title should be able to survive it.
2. Wake Forest is an extreme offense/defense splitter, with a great offense and a poor defense.
Wake Forest is #23 on offense mainly because they can really shoot. Three of their rotation players shoot above 40% from 3. Another is at 38% and another is at 36%. All are on moderate to high volume. Three rotation players shoot above 84% from the line, and three more shoot above 76%. It all adds up to Wake being #32 in 3pt% and #33 in FT%. They're respectable from 2, with a top-100 2pt%.
Wake Forest is #114 on defense because they are pretty bad at everything defensively. They're even worse than Duke in transition defense in terms of eFG%, at #310, and they allow a lot of layups - #248 in percentage of shots allowed at the rim and #243 2pt% allowed. Duke should be able to do whatever they want at whatever pace they want against Wake on offense. Anything short of an offensive explosion from Duke in this game would be more disappointment in this miserable season.
3. Sophomores John Collins and Bryant Crawford have Wake Forest in line to be a true ACC contender in the years to come.
Sophomore big man John Collins and sophomore point guard Bryant Crawford should have Wake Forest fans feeling more optimistic about the future than Duke fans. Collins and Crawford are the fairly efficient, high usage workhorses on offense - Collins has a 117 offensive rating on 29% usage, and Crawford has a 113 offensive rating on 26% usage.
Collins is one of the best rebounders and shotblockers in the country already, with a 16% offensive rebounding rate and a 24% defensive rebounding rate to go along with a 7.4% block rate. He draws a lot of fouls, with a 55% FT attempt rate, and he makes free throws reasonably well for a big man, at 68%. He's a very efficient shooter, with 61% true shooting. He has an impressively low turnover rate for a big man, at 14% (compare with Jeter's 31%). Collins is a bit foul prone, committing 4.8 fouls per 40 minutes, which keeps his minutes down at 24 per game, which in turn keeps him from putting up the raw stats to get national attention. If he learns to commit fewer fouls, Collins should be a legitimate contender for top national and ACC honors as a senior.
Crawford is one of the best passers in the country already, with a 37% assist rate (compare with Duke's top assist rate, Allen's 24%). He's a good all-around scorer, getting a decent amount of points from the line (30% FT attempt rate and 78% FT) and from 3 (40% 3pt attempt rate and 36% 3pt). It's reasonable to expect that Crawford will be the best point guard on the court every time he plays against Duke for the next three seasons.
At Notre Dame - Monday, January 30, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
This is the same old Notre Dame. Duke fans have seen a team similar to this one beat Duke repeatedly in recent years. Since Notre Dame joined the ACC for basketball in 2014, they've compiled a 5-1 record against Duke. Duke's football program has won as many games against Notre Dame in the past year as Duke's basketball program has won in the past 3 years.
This is the toughest game of this set and objectively the 5th toughest game of the season for Duke, based on kenpom projections. No Duke fan can be expected to have any motivation to spend time thinking about this game in advance.
