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The Duke pre-NBA nursery program rolls into December.
Michigan State - Tuesday, November 29, 9:30pm ET, ESPN (ACC/Big Ten Challenge presented by DICK's Sporting Goods)
As is his custom, the mastermind Tom Izzo has instructed his players to play poorly in the beginning of the season, saving their best play for the NCAA Tournament. This coaching strategy has worked quite well in the past - Izzo, like his closest historical peers Coach K and John Wooden, has won at least one national championship - and it would surprise nobody if this Michigan State season culminates in another successful blowout loss to North Carolina in the Final Four.
Michigan State has played against the #20 strength of schedule, so their 4-3 record is not a complete disaster. However, they have lost to every decent team they have faced, except their most recent opponent, Wichita State. They were blown out by kenpom #5 Kentucky and #10 Baylor on neutral courts. They held on for a one-point win at home over kenpom #85 Florida Gulf Coast. Duke should be heavily favored at home, even if three of Duke's most talented players are still hibernating for the NBA.
Michigan State is #31 overall on kenpom, with a balanced offense (#31) and defense (#38). They shoot a lot of 3s (#53 3pt attempt rate, 43%) and they shoot them well (#54 3pt%, 39%). They don't get to the line (#286 FT attempt rate, 29%), which may be a good thing, because they don't make their free throws (#328 FT%, 60%). This should be another one of those Duke games where Twitter stupidly erupts over a drastic free throw discrepancy that should be entirely expected. The most distinctive weakness of this Michigan State team is that they have no regard whatsoever for turnovers, as they rarely force them on defense (#342 defensive turnover rate, 12%) and freely commit them on offense (#292 offensive turnover rate, 19%).
Freshman 6-7 230lb forward Miles Bridges (pictured above with an unknown player) is Michigan State's most talented and most important player. Bridges was the #12 overall recruit on the 247sports composite rankings. Duke doesn't have a great answer for him defensively, since Duke is not willing to play any future NBA small forwards with the kind of length that would bother him. Bridges carries a huge burden for Michigan State, leading the team with 32 minutes per game and 30% usage and often playing out of position, taking a physical beating from opposing centers due to Michigan State's lack of depth in the frontcourt. Izzo can feel comfortable risking injury to his prodigious freshman, since he is barely in the top 20 in the DraftExpress mock draft and therefore not as valuable a human being as Duke's precious freshmen.
There is a lot of great and some terrible with Bridges. On paper, an easy comparison for what Bridges could become is the college version of Justise Winslow. Bridges' overall efficiency (100 offensive rating) is poor, mainly due to terrible free throw shooting (55%) and a high turnover rate (18%), though low efficiency is somewhat understandable with his high usage. Bridges shoots reasonably well from everywhere except the line - 62% at the rim, 42% from midrange and 40% from 3. His shot selection is fine - only 20% of his shots are from midrange. He rebounds a little bit better than Winslow did (probably due to playing center for at least a few minutes every game), with a 7.1% offensive rebounding rate and a 20% defensive rebounding rate. He blocks a lot of shots for his size, with a 4.9% block rate. If Bridges can improve his free throw shooting to a respectable level for a small forward, like freshman Winslow's 64%, he would be a good overall offensive player. If he can defer to his teammates more, which should result in easier shots and fewer turnovers, he may put up great efficiency numbers. Winslow also suffered from trying too hard to carry Duke's offense toward the beginning of his freshman season, and when Winslow's usage dipped to smarter levels, his efficiency improved dramatically. Duke fans should hope the light doesn't go on for Bridges in this game.
Here's what Michigan State's best lineup is expected to look like:
PG Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn, 5-10 170lb, junior
When looking at Nairn's stats as a freshman, before Duke's Final Four game against Michigan State, it seemed possible that the world would never see a worse rotation player in the Final Four. While Nairn may never live up to the quality of each of his names, he has become a borderline good player as a junior, which is a minor miracle considering that he hardly improved at all as a sophomore. He has gone from a low usage player who was afraid to take 3s and couldn't make them to a low usage player who loves taking 3s and makes 50% of them. Duke cannot completely ignore him anymore. Nairn plays a major role in Michigan State's turnover woes, with a catastrophic 32% turnover rate to go with his excellent 34% assist rate.
SG Eron Harris, 6-3 195lb, senior
Harris is usually Michigan State's second option behind Bridges, at 27% usage. He's more efficient than Bridges and generally has stats that are similar to his team's stats as a whole - likes shooting 3s, good at shooting 3s, commits too many turnovers.
SF Matt McQuaid, 6-5 185lb, sophomore
Designated 3pt shooter. Probably white. 81% 3pt attempt rate, 40% 3pt accuracy.
PF Bridges
C Nick Ward, 6-8 250lb, freshman
Ward was the #41 overall recruit on the 247sports composite rankings. He's the classic big man who makes a massive impact on the game when he's on the court, but he has trouble staying on the court due to foul trouble and perhaps stamina issues. He has only played 16 minutes per game over Michigan State's first seven games. Per 40 minutes, Ward averages 26 points, 15 rebounds and 4.0 blocks, but also 6.8 fouls. He shoots 56% from the field (all 2pt) and 60% from the line. His rebounding rates are excellent, at 16% offensive and 24% defensive. His block rate is a tremendous 9.1%. If Ward can stay on the court for close to 30 minutes and maintain the same level of play, Michigan State can win at Duke. If Duke gets Ward into foul trouble early, Michigan State has no realistic chance of winning at Duke. It would be nice if Duke had multiple long, athletic, NBA-caliber big men to throw at Ward, but Duke is not willing to play such players.
Maine - who cares?
Watching Matt Jones drive for missed layups against the #330 team on kenpom will be rock bottom in the lives of many Duke fans.
Florida (at New York) - Tuesday, December 6, 9:30pm ET, ESPN (Jimmy V Classic)
Florida is expected to be Duke's second-toughest test in the non-conference schedule. Florida is #15 overall on kenpom, with an elite defense (#8) but a lesser offense (#35). They have a 5-point win over #42 Seton Hall and a 5-point loss to #16 Gonzaga, each on a neutral court.
If we were to search the high major conferences for a good team that is as different from Michigan State as possible, Florida might be the team we arrive at. They get to the line (#62 FT attempt rate, 45%) and make their free throws (#36 FT%, 77%). They hate taking 3s (#235 3pt attempt rate, 34%) and don't make many of them (#300 3pt%, 29%). They protect the ball (#35 offensive turnover rate, 14%) and force lots of turnovers (#33 defensive turnover rate, 21%). The contrast of playing Michigan State and Florida within such a short time period would be a fantastic experience for freshmen who are expected to contribute to Duke's NCAA Tournament run, when Duke is likely to run into several contrasts in styles within a short period of time. It's unfortunate that playing basketball for Duke is not important enough for Duke's most talented freshmen to be willing to play in these games and gain this experience.
Additionally, Florida is going to be a great test on the defensive boards for Duke, as they rebound 37% of their own misses, good for #26 in the country. Given Florida's heavy skew toward drawing fouls and away from taking 3s, and ability to avoid turnovers and grab offensive boards, this is exactly the kind of team to exploit Duke's usual high pressure, no-3s, man-to-man defense.
Florida' best player and best NBA prospect is 6-8 178lb junior forward Devin Robinson (pictured above, either dunking or blocking an awkward shot). He's projected to go in the mid-2nd round of this year's draft. He does a little bit of everything and does it all pretty well. He has gradually improved his shooting from everywhere and is now hyper-efficient (139 offensive rating on 19% usage), shooting 66% from 2, 36% from 3 and 90% from the line.
Here's what Florida's best lineup is expected to look like:
PG Kasey Hill, 6-1 182lb, senior
Hill was one of the most heavily hyped point guards in his class, but he never panned out offensively. He has shown no signs of flipping the switch this season, as his offensive numbers are worse than ever. As long as the ball is in Hill's hands, Duke's defense is doing a good job.
SG KeVaughn Allen, 6-2 183lb, sophomore
Allen sucks up a lot of possessions (26% usage) without great justification (107 offensive rating). Give him some room to shoot 3s (29% 3pt this season, 31% 3pt career) if it becomes a choice between that or sending him to the line (100% FT this season, 86% career).
SF Canyon Barry, 6-6 205lb, senior
Barry is a graduate transfer from College of Charleston. He is accustomed to having a massive usage (35% usage last season), and it has carried over somewhat to his career at Florida so far (25% usage this season). He's the embodiment of Florida's overall team stats - an assassin when he gets to the rim but not good from 3. Barry this season is shooting a spectacular-for-his-size 72% at the rim, drawing fouls like crazy (54% FT attempt rate, but this is far above his career average) and shooting 84% from the line. He has been cold this season from 3 (28% 3pt) but he has been decent over his career from 3 (34% 3pt).
PF Robinson
C John Egbunu, 6-11 266lb, junior
Giant who does mediocre giant things. Blocks shots (8.8% block rate) and rebounds (17% offensive rebounding rate, 20% defensive rebounding rate).
The number that really matters at the end of this stretch of games is 0. That's the number of games Marques Bolden, Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum will have participated in, with about one-third of the season down the drain.
Michigan State - Tuesday, November 29, 9:30pm ET, ESPN (ACC/Big Ten Challenge presented by DICK's Sporting Goods)
As is his custom, the mastermind Tom Izzo has instructed his players to play poorly in the beginning of the season, saving their best play for the NCAA Tournament. This coaching strategy has worked quite well in the past - Izzo, like his closest historical peers Coach K and John Wooden, has won at least one national championship - and it would surprise nobody if this Michigan State season culminates in another successful blowout loss to North Carolina in the Final Four.
Michigan State has played against the #20 strength of schedule, so their 4-3 record is not a complete disaster. However, they have lost to every decent team they have faced, except their most recent opponent, Wichita State. They were blown out by kenpom #5 Kentucky and #10 Baylor on neutral courts. They held on for a one-point win at home over kenpom #85 Florida Gulf Coast. Duke should be heavily favored at home, even if three of Duke's most talented players are still hibernating for the NBA.
Michigan State is #31 overall on kenpom, with a balanced offense (#31) and defense (#38). They shoot a lot of 3s (#53 3pt attempt rate, 43%) and they shoot them well (#54 3pt%, 39%). They don't get to the line (#286 FT attempt rate, 29%), which may be a good thing, because they don't make their free throws (#328 FT%, 60%). This should be another one of those Duke games where Twitter stupidly erupts over a drastic free throw discrepancy that should be entirely expected. The most distinctive weakness of this Michigan State team is that they have no regard whatsoever for turnovers, as they rarely force them on defense (#342 defensive turnover rate, 12%) and freely commit them on offense (#292 offensive turnover rate, 19%).
Freshman 6-7 230lb forward Miles Bridges (pictured above with an unknown player) is Michigan State's most talented and most important player. Bridges was the #12 overall recruit on the 247sports composite rankings. Duke doesn't have a great answer for him defensively, since Duke is not willing to play any future NBA small forwards with the kind of length that would bother him. Bridges carries a huge burden for Michigan State, leading the team with 32 minutes per game and 30% usage and often playing out of position, taking a physical beating from opposing centers due to Michigan State's lack of depth in the frontcourt. Izzo can feel comfortable risking injury to his prodigious freshman, since he is barely in the top 20 in the DraftExpress mock draft and therefore not as valuable a human being as Duke's precious freshmen.
There is a lot of great and some terrible with Bridges. On paper, an easy comparison for what Bridges could become is the college version of Justise Winslow. Bridges' overall efficiency (100 offensive rating) is poor, mainly due to terrible free throw shooting (55%) and a high turnover rate (18%), though low efficiency is somewhat understandable with his high usage. Bridges shoots reasonably well from everywhere except the line - 62% at the rim, 42% from midrange and 40% from 3. His shot selection is fine - only 20% of his shots are from midrange. He rebounds a little bit better than Winslow did (probably due to playing center for at least a few minutes every game), with a 7.1% offensive rebounding rate and a 20% defensive rebounding rate. He blocks a lot of shots for his size, with a 4.9% block rate. If Bridges can improve his free throw shooting to a respectable level for a small forward, like freshman Winslow's 64%, he would be a good overall offensive player. If he can defer to his teammates more, which should result in easier shots and fewer turnovers, he may put up great efficiency numbers. Winslow also suffered from trying too hard to carry Duke's offense toward the beginning of his freshman season, and when Winslow's usage dipped to smarter levels, his efficiency improved dramatically. Duke fans should hope the light doesn't go on for Bridges in this game.
Here's what Michigan State's best lineup is expected to look like:
PG Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn, 5-10 170lb, junior
When looking at Nairn's stats as a freshman, before Duke's Final Four game against Michigan State, it seemed possible that the world would never see a worse rotation player in the Final Four. While Nairn may never live up to the quality of each of his names, he has become a borderline good player as a junior, which is a minor miracle considering that he hardly improved at all as a sophomore. He has gone from a low usage player who was afraid to take 3s and couldn't make them to a low usage player who loves taking 3s and makes 50% of them. Duke cannot completely ignore him anymore. Nairn plays a major role in Michigan State's turnover woes, with a catastrophic 32% turnover rate to go with his excellent 34% assist rate.
SG Eron Harris, 6-3 195lb, senior
Harris is usually Michigan State's second option behind Bridges, at 27% usage. He's more efficient than Bridges and generally has stats that are similar to his team's stats as a whole - likes shooting 3s, good at shooting 3s, commits too many turnovers.
SF Matt McQuaid, 6-5 185lb, sophomore
Designated 3pt shooter. Probably white. 81% 3pt attempt rate, 40% 3pt accuracy.
PF Bridges
C Nick Ward, 6-8 250lb, freshman
Ward was the #41 overall recruit on the 247sports composite rankings. He's the classic big man who makes a massive impact on the game when he's on the court, but he has trouble staying on the court due to foul trouble and perhaps stamina issues. He has only played 16 minutes per game over Michigan State's first seven games. Per 40 minutes, Ward averages 26 points, 15 rebounds and 4.0 blocks, but also 6.8 fouls. He shoots 56% from the field (all 2pt) and 60% from the line. His rebounding rates are excellent, at 16% offensive and 24% defensive. His block rate is a tremendous 9.1%. If Ward can stay on the court for close to 30 minutes and maintain the same level of play, Michigan State can win at Duke. If Duke gets Ward into foul trouble early, Michigan State has no realistic chance of winning at Duke. It would be nice if Duke had multiple long, athletic, NBA-caliber big men to throw at Ward, but Duke is not willing to play such players.
Maine - who cares?
Watching Matt Jones drive for missed layups against the #330 team on kenpom will be rock bottom in the lives of many Duke fans.
Florida (at New York) - Tuesday, December 6, 9:30pm ET, ESPN (Jimmy V Classic)
Florida is expected to be Duke's second-toughest test in the non-conference schedule. Florida is #15 overall on kenpom, with an elite defense (#8) but a lesser offense (#35). They have a 5-point win over #42 Seton Hall and a 5-point loss to #16 Gonzaga, each on a neutral court.
If we were to search the high major conferences for a good team that is as different from Michigan State as possible, Florida might be the team we arrive at. They get to the line (#62 FT attempt rate, 45%) and make their free throws (#36 FT%, 77%). They hate taking 3s (#235 3pt attempt rate, 34%) and don't make many of them (#300 3pt%, 29%). They protect the ball (#35 offensive turnover rate, 14%) and force lots of turnovers (#33 defensive turnover rate, 21%). The contrast of playing Michigan State and Florida within such a short time period would be a fantastic experience for freshmen who are expected to contribute to Duke's NCAA Tournament run, when Duke is likely to run into several contrasts in styles within a short period of time. It's unfortunate that playing basketball for Duke is not important enough for Duke's most talented freshmen to be willing to play in these games and gain this experience.
Additionally, Florida is going to be a great test on the defensive boards for Duke, as they rebound 37% of their own misses, good for #26 in the country. Given Florida's heavy skew toward drawing fouls and away from taking 3s, and ability to avoid turnovers and grab offensive boards, this is exactly the kind of team to exploit Duke's usual high pressure, no-3s, man-to-man defense.
Florida' best player and best NBA prospect is 6-8 178lb junior forward Devin Robinson (pictured above, either dunking or blocking an awkward shot). He's projected to go in the mid-2nd round of this year's draft. He does a little bit of everything and does it all pretty well. He has gradually improved his shooting from everywhere and is now hyper-efficient (139 offensive rating on 19% usage), shooting 66% from 2, 36% from 3 and 90% from the line.
Here's what Florida's best lineup is expected to look like:
PG Kasey Hill, 6-1 182lb, senior
Hill was one of the most heavily hyped point guards in his class, but he never panned out offensively. He has shown no signs of flipping the switch this season, as his offensive numbers are worse than ever. As long as the ball is in Hill's hands, Duke's defense is doing a good job.
SG KeVaughn Allen, 6-2 183lb, sophomore
Allen sucks up a lot of possessions (26% usage) without great justification (107 offensive rating). Give him some room to shoot 3s (29% 3pt this season, 31% 3pt career) if it becomes a choice between that or sending him to the line (100% FT this season, 86% career).
SF Canyon Barry, 6-6 205lb, senior
Barry is a graduate transfer from College of Charleston. He is accustomed to having a massive usage (35% usage last season), and it has carried over somewhat to his career at Florida so far (25% usage this season). He's the embodiment of Florida's overall team stats - an assassin when he gets to the rim but not good from 3. Barry this season is shooting a spectacular-for-his-size 72% at the rim, drawing fouls like crazy (54% FT attempt rate, but this is far above his career average) and shooting 84% from the line. He has been cold this season from 3 (28% 3pt) but he has been decent over his career from 3 (34% 3pt).
PF Robinson
C John Egbunu, 6-11 266lb, junior
Giant who does mediocre giant things. Blocks shots (8.8% block rate) and rebounds (17% offensive rebounding rate, 20% defensive rebounding rate).
The number that really matters at the end of this stretch of games is 0. That's the number of games Marques Bolden, Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum will have participated in, with about one-third of the season down the drain.
