If cal stays at UK for several years, his average team will be much closer to the 2010 or 2011 team than the 2012 team. With all the hype he gets and the pitch he makes, even the top 30ish recruits get NBA attention and try to go pro asap. Guys like Orton and stein get first round looks for nothing. Even guys like wiltjer and m. Lee don't seem likely to stay 4 years if the can avoid it. Guys like miller, Patterson, etc don't appear out of thin air, and he will have a hard time keeping guys like that in school for 3-4 years.
Getting Jones back from the lockout was huge, and I think he (and other coaches) knew what they were doing when they encouraged guys like him to come back. His draft stock slipped as a sophomore.
Davis had the freak talent, and mkg the intangibles you rarely get with freshmen. If cal stays 7-8 more years, I think he might win 1-2, but he isn't going to go on a sabanesque run, IMO.