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The Degenerates Thread

Most people should probably hedge these promos for guaranteed profit. It’s not the highest expected value approach, but taking a 100-1 longshot naked with an opening $3,000 risk-free bet (this is the highest EV approach) is not going to be acceptable to most people psychologically.

So realistically you’ll find a +350 longshot for your $3,000 risk-free first bet on FanDuel, for example, and match it with -400 odds on the other side on a book where you’ve already gotten the first bet promo out of the way or that doesn’t have a first bet promo. You could find something like +500 and -500 or even an arbitrage like +500 and -450, but that’s not common and will take more effort to find.

You’ll need to use some math, which isn’t going to be simple, to figure out what dollar amount to bet on the -400 side. Basically, you’re going to work this out so that you’re guaranteed to make roughly the same amount in profit regardless of which side of the bet wins on your initial risk-free bet and, if needed, the subsequent bet you make with the $3,000 free bet you get for losing the risk-free bet. It’s going to involve multiple steps in a spreadsheet, but this isn’t rocket science.

You should end up “converting” the $3,000 risk-free bet promo into around $1,800 guaranteed profit if you do a minimally decent job of this. Make sure your math is right, read some articles online about this, use an online calculation tool for this, etc. Of course, you could just bet it all on UNC to win the national title at +1500 and come out with $45,000 profit essentially guaranteed, since this is happening.

The other promos besides giant risk-free bets will be much simpler. I think FanDuel and DraftKings will offer a choice of something like taking $250 in free bets for doing nothing vs. the giant risk-free bet. Don’t take the smaller offer unless you don’t have the initial capital to pull off the hedging. It’s incredibly wasteful.

Other books might only offer the $100-250 in free bets. That’s fine, just take it. Then if you want to hedge those free bets, it’s similar math to what I wrote above, but much simpler. Risk-free promos and free bets should always be placed on longshots +300 or higher to maximize the conversion or naked EV. You can Google articles about why risk-free promos and free bets being used on favorites is mathematically unsound. For smaller amounts, I’d recommend just letting it ride unhedged.
 
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The last thing you’ll want to do is actually gamble with any significant amount of money. If done properly, you’ll simply be taking money from these companies, which they are happy to give to you in exchange for some of you developing gambling addictions.
 
Follow this guy on Twitter for confirmation of which daily specials are good plays on the major books:


There are other accounts they do the same thing. This one is best for the basics.

At first, the books will just give away money, like bet max $50 on the Hornets to make a 3-pointer tonight at +100 odds, or bet max $50 on the Canes to have a shot on goal at +100 odds. There will likely be about 5-10 of these no-brainer bets in the first week.
 
normies: WTF?!?!?
Galaxy-brains: this makes total sense and it’s weird that others aren’t taking advantage of this free money
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Most people should probably hedge these promos for guaranteed profit. It’s not the highest expected value approach, but taking a 100-1 longshot naked with an opening $3,000 risk-free bet (this is the highest EV approach) is not going to be acceptable to most people psychologically.

So realistically you’ll find a +350 longshot for your $3,000 risk-free first bet on FanDuel, for example, and match it with -400 odds on the other side on a book where you’ve already gotten the first bet promo out of the way or that doesn’t have a first bet promo. You could find something like +500 and -500 or even an arbitrage like +500 and -450, but that’s not common and will take more effort to find.

You’ll need to use some math, which isn’t going to be simple, to figure out what dollar amount to bet on the -400 side. Basically, you’re going to work this out so that you’re guaranteed to make roughly the same amount in profit regardless of which side of the bet wins on your initial risk-free bet and, if needed, the subsequent bet you make with the $3,000 free bet you get for losing the risk-free bet. It’s going to involve multiple steps in a spreadsheet, but this isn’t rocket science.

You should end up “converting” the $3,000 risk-free bet promo into around $1,800 guaranteed profit if you do a minimally decent job of this. Make sure your math is right, read some articles online about this, use an online calculation tool for this, etc. Of course, you could just bet it all on UNC to win the national title at +1500 and come out with $45,000 profit essentially guaranteed, since this is happening.

The other promos besides giant risk-free bets will be much simpler. I think FanDuel and DraftKings will offer a choice of something like taking $250 in free bets for doing nothing vs. the giant risk-free bet. Don’t take the smaller offer unless you don’t have the initial capital to pull off the hedging. It’s incredibly wasteful.

Other books might only offer the $100-250 in free bets. That’s fine, just take it. Then if you want to hedge those free bets, it’s similar math to what I wrote above, but much simpler. Risk-free promos and free bets should always be placed on longshots +300 or higher to maximize the conversion or naked EV. You can Google articles about why risk-free promos and free bets being used on favorites is mathematically unsound. For smaller amounts, I’d recommend just letting it ride unhedged.
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BUMP.

Everyone in NC should really get on this. I had a reminder to Google the promos today before they all go live and holy shit, they really give out a lot of free money.

What have people found in the category of the big money risk-free bet options though? I’ve only found $1,000 each at Draftkings and Underdog Sports, and another $1,000 in $100 daily bets for the first ten days at Caesar’s.

I also think I may have fucked up the Draftkings option by signing up for their advertised promo of $300 in bonus bets before checking this thread, but I guess I'm only losing a couple hundred bucks if they won't adjust it.
 
One piece of advice: don’t be frozen by optimization. If all you do is hedge a big free bet on a -110 mainline NBA spread vs. -110 on the other side, you’re still converting that free bet into about 50% of its value in real cash. It’s not great (you would ideally convert free bets into about 80-90% cash in the long run by simply letting it ride on big underdogs), but if this is your first time betting and you can’t stomach variance, just do whatever you can to take the free money. The promos typically are best right when they enter a new state.

Plus you don’t want to miss out on all the no-brainer bets they put out there during the first week. You’ll rack up like $500 on those alone. If NC were within a half hour drive for me, I’d drive across the border just to place those bets each night.
 
Edit: try this instead: https://tinyurl.com/y48akudb

@rome8180 @sivartrenrag @dukebluedevils05 @DukeNukem05 @deepdarkblue / whoever else is local, here's a shitty spreadsheet of the pre-reg deals I found before I had to run out the door. Caveat that I don't actually know anything about anything.

Such a weird industry. Throwing massive amounts of money at people, but the apps are all janky as shit and they're really sketchy about how they advertise their promos/show what's actually applied/etc.
 
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I'll have to read this thread a bit more to understand any of this. I've just kind of tuned out to gambling because NC makes it such a difficult experience.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Most people should probably hedge these promos for guaranteed profit. It’s not the highest expected value approach, but taking a 100-1 longshot naked with an opening $3,000 risk-free bet (this is the highest EV approach) is not going to be acceptable to most people psychologically.

So realistically you’ll find a +350 longshot for your $3,000 risk-free first bet on FanDuel, for example, and match it with -400 odds on the other side on a book where you’ve already gotten the first bet promo out of the way or that doesn’t have a first bet promo. You could find something like +500 and -500 or even an arbitrage like +500 and -450, but that’s not common and will take more effort to find.

You’ll need to use some math, which isn’t going to be simple, to figure out what dollar amount to bet on the -400 side. Basically, you’re going to work this out so that you’re guaranteed to make roughly the same amount in profit regardless of which side of the bet wins on your initial risk-free bet and, if needed, the subsequent bet you make with the $3,000 free bet you get for losing the risk-free bet. It’s going to involve multiple steps in a spreadsheet, but this isn’t rocket science.

You should end up “converting” the $3,000 risk-free bet promo into around $1,800 guaranteed profit if you do a minimally decent job of this. Make sure your math is right, read some articles online about this, use an online calculation tool for this, etc. Of course, you could just bet it all on UNC to win the national title at +1500 and come out with $45,000 profit essentially guaranteed, since this is happening.

The other promos besides giant risk-free bets will be much simpler. I think FanDuel and DraftKings will offer a choice of something like taking $250 in free bets for doing nothing vs. the giant risk-free bet. Don’t take the smaller offer unless you don’t have the initial capital to pull off the hedging. It’s incredibly wasteful.

Other books might only offer the $100-250 in free bets. That’s fine, just take it. Then if you want to hedge those free bets, it’s similar math to what I wrote above, but much simpler. Risk-free promos and free bets should always be placed on longshots +300 or higher to maximize the conversion or naked EV. You can Google articles about why risk-free promos and free bets being used on favorites is mathematically unsound. For smaller amounts, I’d recommend just letting it ride unhedged.
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So, just a quick sanity check here - say I'm using bets with -400/+350 odds to squeeze what I can out of a $1k risk-free first bet on Site 1, and offsetting with real money on Site 2.

First step would be depositing and betting $1,000 on the +350 side on Site 1. (Ideally you'd want to bet the -400 side here, right? But they typically require you to bet on something less safe with this promo?) (never mind, that's obviously dumb.)

I'd then deposit and bet $2,800 on the -400 side on Site 2.

If the underdog wins, I lose my $2.8k on Site 2, but gain $3.5k on Site 1, and could just cash out then.

If the favorite wins, I gain $700 on Site 2, but lose $1k on Site 1, with $1k in bonus bets replenished, so I'm down $300 in real money. I then repeat the initial wager, betting $1k on the +350 side with your Site 1 bonus bux, and betting $2.8k on the -400 side with your existing balance on Site 2. If the underdog wins this round, you lose your initial $2.8k deposited on Site 2, but gain $3.5k on Site 1, for a $700 net. If the favorite wins, you're now up $1.4 on Site 2, and down your original $1k deposit on Site 2, for a $400 net.

Ideally, I'd optimize those hedging amounts so that all outcomes are the same, and the most likely outcomes isn't the least profitable, but that's the right process otherwise, right?

Thanks for all this, btw.
 
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Yeah that’s about right. At these amounts, you can settle for something like +275/-300 or +190/-200 and be content with it. You can find those odds across books every night in the NBA or college basketball. It can be nerve wracking to push the button on a $3,000+ bet.

You also need to make sure the book will even accept a bet that high. If they limit it to, say, $1,000 and you’ve already bet $1,000 on the longshot side elsewhere, you’re going to be scrambling to find similar odds on other books to aggregate to the amount you need for hedging. Usually the book will warn you if you’ve entered an amount they won’t accept.
 
The hedging amount is especially true for smaller sports that don't get a lot of wagers.
 
It's funny to me how little most people I know seem to care about free money. I don't know why everyone isn't jumping on this.

It's like an expensed meal for me. A thousand dollars that comes from nonsense stuff like NFTs and gambling promos tastes so much better than the same amount earned from an honest day's work. Can't wait to blow it on a PS5 and other stupid shit without a hint of guilt.
 



Sounds like you guys aren't going to get the big risk-free first bets. That's shameful from FanDuel and DraftKings in particular. No state up until now was not given at least a $1,000 risk-free first bet by them. For the first few states, these books were giving away about $2,000 each in various promos and no-brainer bets during the first month.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:



Sounds like you guys aren't going to get the big risk-free first bets. That's shameful from FanDuel and DraftKings in particular. No state up until now was not given at least a $1,000 risk-free first bet by them. For the first few states, these books were giving away about $2,000 each in various promos and no-brainer bets during the first month.
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He did miss a few - DK and Caeser's both have a 1k risk-free option, and Fanatics will give you $100 promo bux on a $100 bet each day for ten days regardless of whether it wins or loses.

I'm trying to think of how to use the standard promo bucks now. I get that in a large enough sample size, the conversion rate via +900 bets will be much better than on +110s, but if I'm just making 20 total bets or whatever to spend the promo dollars, that seems dicey.

Have to figure out how much longshot risk to take with the promo bets, and also whether to hedge them at all (which gets less efficient the longer the shot).
 
I guess the optimal answer would be to take the heaviest underdogs I can find where there's not too much difference between the underdog odds and the favorite odds on another book, and hedge each bonus bet on that other book.

Maybe I'll try doing that in a way that doesn't involve me having too many thousands of real dollars on the line at any one given time over the next few days, as I build my courage to tackle the big risk-free bets.
 
If you’re going to try the whole +EV betting thing long-term, these little batches of $100 in free bets here or there are not going to cause you any psychological or emotional damage, even if you somehow convert them into $0 on unhedged longshots. However, if you’re just in this for the initial promos, you should probably just hedge all of it and then get out.

The pro-est of pro tips for making money in the long run on +EV betting is to do live betting only (along with promos). These retail books are often awful at setting live lines (i.e., moving lines while games are going on). FanDuel and DraftKings were live arbs against each other during the Super Bowl pretty much the entire game, which is unbelievable given that’s the biggest gambling event of the year. You could get Chiefs moneyline +250 on FD while Niners were -200 on DK, for example. For stupid little college basketball games, you can find live arbs all over the place. You shouldn’t arb in those cases; just take the side that’s out of line with all other books (FD was the wrong side during the Super Bowl, and they paid for it).

The reason live betting is so much better than pregame betting is you won’t get limited nearly as quickly. I’m massively limited on every book after 3 years of betting on promos, and most books will limit you after only a few months now. I can’t get down more than $8 on many bets, though I can still get good amounts down on mainline bets like UNC +5.5 or UNC +190 at Duke. The limiting is largely based on closing line value, or CLV. If you get in at a good price, which later moves in your favor as expected, you’re getting CLV, and the books can easily track players who consistently get CLV. With live lines, the books can’t track anything.

Bet365 is an absolute goldmine for live odds that are +EV. MGM as well. You definitely don’t want to burn your Bet365 or MGM account with anything other than live bets if they come to NC. But really, beyond these initial promos, you don’t want to hedge at all, because finding the best lines to hedge with is almost always going to entail getting CLV, which is counterintuitively terrible in the long run for making as much money as possible.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
If you’re going to try the whole +EV betting thing long-term, these little batches of $100 in free bets here or there are not going to cause you any psychological or emotional damage, even if you somehow convert them into $0 on unhedged longshots. However, if you’re just in this for the initial promos, you should probably just hedge all of it and then get out.

The pro-est of pro tips for making money in the long run on +EV betting is to do live betting only (along with promos). These retail books are often awful at setting live lines (i.e., moving lines while games are going on). FanDuel and DraftKings were live arbs against each other during the Super Bowl pretty much the entire game, which is unbelievable given that’s the biggest gambling event of the year. You could get Chiefs moneyline +250 on FD while Niners were -200 on DK, for example. For stupid little college basketball games, you can find live arbs all over the place. You shouldn’t arb in those cases; just take the side that’s out of line with all other books (FD was the wrong side during the Super Bowl, and they paid for it).

The reason live betting is so much better than pregame betting is you won’t get limited nearly as quickly. I’m massively limited on every book after 3 years of betting on promos, and most books will limit you after only a few months now. I can’t get down more than $8 on many bets, though I can still get good amounts down on mainline bets like UNC +5.5 or UNC +190 at Duke. The limiting is largely based on closing line value, or CLV. If you get in at a good price, which later moves in your favor as expected, you’re getting CLV, and the books can easily track players who consistently get CLV. With live lines, the books can’t track anything.

Bet365 is an absolute goldmine for live odds that are +EV. MGM as well. You definitely don’t want to burn your Bet365 or MGM account with anything other than live bets if they come to NC. But really, beyond these initial promos, you don’t want to hedge at all, because finding the best lines to hedge with is almost always going to entail getting CLV, which is counterintuitively terrible in the long run for making as much money as possible.
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Interesting. I'm mainly just planning on extracting what I can from the initial promos, but could see myself leaving some money in and dabbling in some EV stuff afterwards.

I wonder if I should just mix in some live betting of my promo bux along with my hedged longshots. How do you ID in-game lines that are off - just check around different books and ID any outliers?
 
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