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Duke's strange, winding road to the NCAA Tournament concludes with a trip to Syracuse, four ACC rematches, and the ACC Tournament.
This team began the season with great expectations, suffered injuries to almost all of its rotation players at various points, lost its head coach for about a month, looked completely hopeless after a stretch where it lost 3 out of 4 games, capped by what may go down as Duke's most shameful home loss of the past 20+ years, and was subjected to a bizarre national movement in which the majority of the country seemed to want Grayson Allen to be either imprisoned or physically assaulted.
Given all the adversity, this team may be excused for looking like it's just now beginning to reach mid-season form. It has five more games to round into the postseason form that has been expected of the most hyped collection of talent and experience in the country.
Wake Forest - Saturday, February 18, 1:00pm ET, ACCN/ESPN3
If Duke truly is finding its championship form, then college basketball fans can largely thank Wake Forest for it. Going into the first matchup three weeks ago, Duke was in as bad a state as they had ever been in. The non-Luke Kennard players on Duke continued to look terrible for most of the game at Wake Forest, trailing by 10 at the half and never taking the lead in the 2nd half until Wake Forest finally crossed the line in trying to provoke Allen. Thankfully for Duke fans, the son of the great Randolph Childress tackled Allen on the Duke bench for no reason, which led to the following:
Allen simply accepted being taken to the ground, because he had to.
The entire Duke team, including the coaching staff, stood up for the most hated athlete in the world because they knew he couldn't afford to retaliate.
Down 10 points with less than 4:00 to go, Duke went on a 14-2 run to close the game, featuring 11 of Kennard's 34 points and a huge shot by Allen, and Duke won by 2.
The national hysteria over Allen turned into national embarrassment over the amount of mainstream media coverage and slo-mo gif creation for every movement Allen made on the court.
A rejuvenated Duke team that was presumably sick and tired of feeling like trash has not lost since.
Now, Wake Forest gets their rematch at Duke. Duke fans should be happy and grateful to see this team again, as they are the chokers who allowed Duke to rescue their own season from the brink. Kennard carried Duke on his back in the last matchup. With the return of his head coach and the resurgence and development of many of his teammates, Kennard should have help this time.
At Syracuse - Wednesday, February 22, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
A few quick points about Syracuse:
1. Disappointing season for a talented team.
Started in the top 20 of both the AP and Coaches' polls. Started #12 overall on kenpom.com. Currently 16-11 and #48 on kenpom. Lost to #87 St. John's at home and #147 Boston College on the road. However, accomplished a feat Duke could not by slaying NC State (on the road, no less).
Eight 4-star or better recruits on the roster, which probably makes Syracuse one of the three most talented teams in the ACC along with Duke and North Carolina.
Had won five ACC games in a row and were playing much better, but then lost at Pittsburgh and against Louisville. The loss to Louisville went to overtime, though, and showed Syracuse is currently good enough to take down an elite team.
2. Good offense, bad defense.
#35 adjusted offensive efficiency on offense. #100 defense.
Offense is strong all-around, except poor at getting to the line (#198 FT attempt rate). Scarcity of FT attempts is probably due to taking lots of 3s and being justified in doing so (#87 3pt attempt rate and #44 3pt% at 38.2%).
As usual, due mainly to their 2-3 zone, terrible at defensive rebounding (#337 defensive rebounding rate). Elite at shotblocking and generating steals (#11 in block rate and in steal rate), but doesn't translate to a strong overall turnover rate (#99 defensive turnover rate) or 2pt defense (#137 2pt% allowed). Block rate and steal rate are spread out among many players, rather than having 1-2 players who are great at either.
3. PG John Gillon (#4 pictured above) is their most important player and should be able to give Duke's defense severe problems.
Gillon is on his 3rd college team, after a season at Arkansas-Little Rock and two seasons at Colorado State. Was never this good before getting to Syracuse. Less heralded transfer than SF Andrew White, but proving to be the more important pickup. Gillon is terrifying for Duke's defense on paper. 34% assist rate is top 50 in the country, 2.8 assist:turnover ratio is excellent, 43% FT attempt rate is very good for a point guard and hits 85% FT once he's at the line. Serious threat from 3 - 52% of shots are 3s, 42% 3pt. Might be too quick for anyone but Frank Jackson to stay in front of.
White leads the team in minutes at 37 per game and bombs away from 3. 61% of shots are 3s, 39% 3pt. Not a good passer or rebounder from the small forward position.
Sophomore C/PF Tyler Lydon is Syracuse's most intriguing NBA prospect, currently at #22 on DraftExpress.com's 2017 mock draft. Objectively the most valuable two-way player on the team, with the highest PER at 21.3 and by far the highest BPM at 9.4. Presents matchup problems as a 42% 3pt shooter. Also very accurate inside the arc and at the line - 55% 2pt and 82% FT. 62% true shooting is nearly top 100 in the country. Good shotblocker, with a 4.8% block rate. Not a great rebounder for the position, with a 6.8% offensive rebounding rate and 17% defensive rebounding rate.
SG Tyus Battle, a top 50 recruit whom Duke offered, has been decent for a freshman but mediocre generally. Really just a 3pt shooter, like White. 57% of shots are 3s, 37% 3pt.
At Miami - Saturday, February 25, 4:00pm ET, CBS
Sandwiched among 3 losses, Duke somehow managed to scrape together a win against Miami in their first meeting this season. This was the game in which Matt Jones broke free of his arthritis and osteoporosis, got his old man groove back and was Duke's best player after being benched to start the game. After a dismal 1st half that looked a lot like Duke's other ACC losses, Jones hit three 3s and scored 13 points as part of Duke's 31-4 run to open the 2nd half, which buried Miami.
There was a stretch of seven games earlier this season, which covered a little over a month, in which Jones shot 3-25, or 12%, from 3. Since then, over the last 12 games, Jones has shot 41% from 3. He's back to being the player this team needs to go along with its stars. A glue guy is generally nice to have, but a glue guy who shoots 12% from 3 is not someone worth putting on the floor. A glue guy who shoots 41% from 3 is someone who can help revive a lost season.
Florida State - Tuesday, February 28, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
This will be Duke's only chance this season to avenge a prior loss. Duke not only lost at Florida State, but seemed to give up entirely in the 2nd half. It was an embarrassment.
Florida State is a borderline elite team this season, just like Duke at the moment, but a close win in this game should not be enough to satisfy Duke. Given the disgusting performance overall by the players and coaches at Florida State, they should be satisfied with nothing less than a blowout win at home.
At North Carolina - Saturday, March 4, 8:00pm ET, ESPN
Kennard has been incredible all season; he'll probably receive some All-America honors. Allen is back, more or less, after being a neutered shell of his former self for so much of the season. Jones is back, after over a month of being unable to hit a shot. The smart, sharpshooting version of Jayson Tatum may have arrived, after being an inefficient drain on the offense for so much of the season. Harry Giles is showing more and more signs of rediscovering his high school greatness after having his knees torn up for two years. Frank Jackson has been good by freshman standards all season.
All of these developments have been encouraging for Duke, but there's still one big piece missing, which is delaying the team's rise to being a dominant national title favorite. Since returning from an injury suffered against Boston College, Amile Jefferson has been objectively much, much worse than he was prior to that injury. He has arguably been Duke's worst rotation player since his return, and it looks like he's still recovering.
Before the injury (16 games), Jefferson was putting up these impressive stats: 29.8 minutes per game, 63% 2pt on 8.3 2pt attempts per game, 60% FT on 5.4 FT attempts per game (decent by his career standards), 10.1 rebounds per game. Since returning (8 games), Jefferson has been putting up these unimpressive stats: 28.6 minutes per game, 49% 2pt on 4.9 2pt attempts per game, 56% on 2.0 FT attempts per game, 6.6 rebounds per game.
Some of this dropoff can be attributed to the increased strength of schedule in Duke's last 8 games compared with its first 16 games, but these are drastic differences in shooting and rebounding numbers. In roughly the same minutes per game, Jefferson is taking far fewer shots, getting the line far less and shooting worse from everywhere. Perhaps most importantly, especially against a team that dominates inside like North Carolina, Jefferson is grabbing significantly fewer rebounds per game.
According to the posters at DukeBasketballReport.com who keep track of plus-minus stats for individual Duke players, Jefferson has had one of the least positive impacts on this team since returning from injury. Against Miami, Jefferson registered a +5.8 per 40 minutes, which was 6th on the team. Against NC State, -17.1 per 40, worst on the team. At Wake Forest, -25.0 per 40, 8th on the team. At Notre Dame, +7.7 per 40, 6th on the team. Against Pittsburgh, +12.2 per 40, 3rd on the team. Against Clemson, -13.6 per 40, worst on the team. Against North Carolina, +1.3 per 40, 7th on the team. At Virginia, +7.6 per 40, 6th on the team. Plus-minus has its flaws as a reliable stat for many reasons, but these relatively poor plus-minus numbers are stunning for a player who was Duke's rock and arguably Duke's most important player for the first 16 games of the season.
It has been a nice recovery by Duke after this season appeared to be heading into the dumpster, but for them to reach their potential, Jefferson is going to need to return to the form we've seen out of him for most of his career. With Kennard, Allen, Jones, Tatum, Giles and Jackson all seemingly on board for a deep postseason run and a legitimate chance of sweeping North Carolina, we await the true return of Amile Jefferson to close out a fantastic college career.
This team began the season with great expectations, suffered injuries to almost all of its rotation players at various points, lost its head coach for about a month, looked completely hopeless after a stretch where it lost 3 out of 4 games, capped by what may go down as Duke's most shameful home loss of the past 20+ years, and was subjected to a bizarre national movement in which the majority of the country seemed to want Grayson Allen to be either imprisoned or physically assaulted.
Given all the adversity, this team may be excused for looking like it's just now beginning to reach mid-season form. It has five more games to round into the postseason form that has been expected of the most hyped collection of talent and experience in the country.
Wake Forest - Saturday, February 18, 1:00pm ET, ACCN/ESPN3
If Duke truly is finding its championship form, then college basketball fans can largely thank Wake Forest for it. Going into the first matchup three weeks ago, Duke was in as bad a state as they had ever been in. The non-Luke Kennard players on Duke continued to look terrible for most of the game at Wake Forest, trailing by 10 at the half and never taking the lead in the 2nd half until Wake Forest finally crossed the line in trying to provoke Allen. Thankfully for Duke fans, the son of the great Randolph Childress tackled Allen on the Duke bench for no reason, which led to the following:
Allen simply accepted being taken to the ground, because he had to.
The entire Duke team, including the coaching staff, stood up for the most hated athlete in the world because they knew he couldn't afford to retaliate.
Down 10 points with less than 4:00 to go, Duke went on a 14-2 run to close the game, featuring 11 of Kennard's 34 points and a huge shot by Allen, and Duke won by 2.
The national hysteria over Allen turned into national embarrassment over the amount of mainstream media coverage and slo-mo gif creation for every movement Allen made on the court.
A rejuvenated Duke team that was presumably sick and tired of feeling like trash has not lost since.
Now, Wake Forest gets their rematch at Duke. Duke fans should be happy and grateful to see this team again, as they are the chokers who allowed Duke to rescue their own season from the brink. Kennard carried Duke on his back in the last matchup. With the return of his head coach and the resurgence and development of many of his teammates, Kennard should have help this time.
At Syracuse - Wednesday, February 22, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
A few quick points about Syracuse:
1. Disappointing season for a talented team.
Started in the top 20 of both the AP and Coaches' polls. Started #12 overall on kenpom.com. Currently 16-11 and #48 on kenpom. Lost to #87 St. John's at home and #147 Boston College on the road. However, accomplished a feat Duke could not by slaying NC State (on the road, no less).
Eight 4-star or better recruits on the roster, which probably makes Syracuse one of the three most talented teams in the ACC along with Duke and North Carolina.
Had won five ACC games in a row and were playing much better, but then lost at Pittsburgh and against Louisville. The loss to Louisville went to overtime, though, and showed Syracuse is currently good enough to take down an elite team.
2. Good offense, bad defense.
#35 adjusted offensive efficiency on offense. #100 defense.
Offense is strong all-around, except poor at getting to the line (#198 FT attempt rate). Scarcity of FT attempts is probably due to taking lots of 3s and being justified in doing so (#87 3pt attempt rate and #44 3pt% at 38.2%).
As usual, due mainly to their 2-3 zone, terrible at defensive rebounding (#337 defensive rebounding rate). Elite at shotblocking and generating steals (#11 in block rate and in steal rate), but doesn't translate to a strong overall turnover rate (#99 defensive turnover rate) or 2pt defense (#137 2pt% allowed). Block rate and steal rate are spread out among many players, rather than having 1-2 players who are great at either.
3. PG John Gillon (#4 pictured above) is their most important player and should be able to give Duke's defense severe problems.
Gillon is on his 3rd college team, after a season at Arkansas-Little Rock and two seasons at Colorado State. Was never this good before getting to Syracuse. Less heralded transfer than SF Andrew White, but proving to be the more important pickup. Gillon is terrifying for Duke's defense on paper. 34% assist rate is top 50 in the country, 2.8 assist:turnover ratio is excellent, 43% FT attempt rate is very good for a point guard and hits 85% FT once he's at the line. Serious threat from 3 - 52% of shots are 3s, 42% 3pt. Might be too quick for anyone but Frank Jackson to stay in front of.
White leads the team in minutes at 37 per game and bombs away from 3. 61% of shots are 3s, 39% 3pt. Not a good passer or rebounder from the small forward position.
Sophomore C/PF Tyler Lydon is Syracuse's most intriguing NBA prospect, currently at #22 on DraftExpress.com's 2017 mock draft. Objectively the most valuable two-way player on the team, with the highest PER at 21.3 and by far the highest BPM at 9.4. Presents matchup problems as a 42% 3pt shooter. Also very accurate inside the arc and at the line - 55% 2pt and 82% FT. 62% true shooting is nearly top 100 in the country. Good shotblocker, with a 4.8% block rate. Not a great rebounder for the position, with a 6.8% offensive rebounding rate and 17% defensive rebounding rate.
SG Tyus Battle, a top 50 recruit whom Duke offered, has been decent for a freshman but mediocre generally. Really just a 3pt shooter, like White. 57% of shots are 3s, 37% 3pt.
At Miami - Saturday, February 25, 4:00pm ET, CBS
Sandwiched among 3 losses, Duke somehow managed to scrape together a win against Miami in their first meeting this season. This was the game in which Matt Jones broke free of his arthritis and osteoporosis, got his old man groove back and was Duke's best player after being benched to start the game. After a dismal 1st half that looked a lot like Duke's other ACC losses, Jones hit three 3s and scored 13 points as part of Duke's 31-4 run to open the 2nd half, which buried Miami.
There was a stretch of seven games earlier this season, which covered a little over a month, in which Jones shot 3-25, or 12%, from 3. Since then, over the last 12 games, Jones has shot 41% from 3. He's back to being the player this team needs to go along with its stars. A glue guy is generally nice to have, but a glue guy who shoots 12% from 3 is not someone worth putting on the floor. A glue guy who shoots 41% from 3 is someone who can help revive a lost season.
Florida State - Tuesday, February 28, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
This will be Duke's only chance this season to avenge a prior loss. Duke not only lost at Florida State, but seemed to give up entirely in the 2nd half. It was an embarrassment.
Florida State is a borderline elite team this season, just like Duke at the moment, but a close win in this game should not be enough to satisfy Duke. Given the disgusting performance overall by the players and coaches at Florida State, they should be satisfied with nothing less than a blowout win at home.
At North Carolina - Saturday, March 4, 8:00pm ET, ESPN
Kennard has been incredible all season; he'll probably receive some All-America honors. Allen is back, more or less, after being a neutered shell of his former self for so much of the season. Jones is back, after over a month of being unable to hit a shot. The smart, sharpshooting version of Jayson Tatum may have arrived, after being an inefficient drain on the offense for so much of the season. Harry Giles is showing more and more signs of rediscovering his high school greatness after having his knees torn up for two years. Frank Jackson has been good by freshman standards all season.
All of these developments have been encouraging for Duke, but there's still one big piece missing, which is delaying the team's rise to being a dominant national title favorite. Since returning from an injury suffered against Boston College, Amile Jefferson has been objectively much, much worse than he was prior to that injury. He has arguably been Duke's worst rotation player since his return, and it looks like he's still recovering.
Before the injury (16 games), Jefferson was putting up these impressive stats: 29.8 minutes per game, 63% 2pt on 8.3 2pt attempts per game, 60% FT on 5.4 FT attempts per game (decent by his career standards), 10.1 rebounds per game. Since returning (8 games), Jefferson has been putting up these unimpressive stats: 28.6 minutes per game, 49% 2pt on 4.9 2pt attempts per game, 56% on 2.0 FT attempts per game, 6.6 rebounds per game.
Some of this dropoff can be attributed to the increased strength of schedule in Duke's last 8 games compared with its first 16 games, but these are drastic differences in shooting and rebounding numbers. In roughly the same minutes per game, Jefferson is taking far fewer shots, getting the line far less and shooting worse from everywhere. Perhaps most importantly, especially against a team that dominates inside like North Carolina, Jefferson is grabbing significantly fewer rebounds per game.
According to the posters at DukeBasketballReport.com who keep track of plus-minus stats for individual Duke players, Jefferson has had one of the least positive impacts on this team since returning from injury. Against Miami, Jefferson registered a +5.8 per 40 minutes, which was 6th on the team. Against NC State, -17.1 per 40, worst on the team. At Wake Forest, -25.0 per 40, 8th on the team. At Notre Dame, +7.7 per 40, 6th on the team. Against Pittsburgh, +12.2 per 40, 3rd on the team. Against Clemson, -13.6 per 40, worst on the team. Against North Carolina, +1.3 per 40, 7th on the team. At Virginia, +7.6 per 40, 6th on the team. Plus-minus has its flaws as a reliable stat for many reasons, but these relatively poor plus-minus numbers are stunning for a player who was Duke's rock and arguably Duke's most important player for the first 16 games of the season.
It has been a nice recovery by Duke after this season appeared to be heading into the dumpster, but for them to reach their potential, Jefferson is going to need to return to the form we've seen out of him for most of his career. With Kennard, Allen, Jones, Tatum, Giles and Jackson all seemingly on board for a deep postseason run and a legitimate chance of sweeping North Carolina, we await the true return of Amile Jefferson to close out a fantastic college career.
