Sam Vecenie has Carter as the #1 prospect on the Bulls. The Bulls are 10th overall in the prospect list. Something to note: he wrote these articles throughout the season, so this one was actually published back in late December.
1. Wendell Carter, C | 20 years old | Three years, $17.3 million, last year team option
2019-20 stats: 12.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 56.8/13.3/70.4; 2018-19 stats: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 48.5/18.8/79.5
Carter has been the Bulls most consistently good youngster this year, thus placing him in the top spot of these rankings. Even more impressively though, he has been impressive despite being misused within Chicago’s offense.
The No. 7 overall pick out of Duke in 2018, Carter profiled as an interesting hybrid of both past and present generations of big men. While he came up as more of a back-to-the-basket big at prep levels, Carter displayed an awful lot of perimeter skill and footwork at Duke. Coach K and his staff utilized him a lot in high-low actions with Marvin Bagley, asking him to create with his vision and passing ability. They also had him act as a pick-and-pop floor-spacer, allowing him to take 46 3-pointers, shots he made at a 41.3 percent clip. He wasn’t the most mobile or explosive player, but his skill and polish made scouts buy into him as a modern center.
Those skills haven’t translated since Boylen took over the team. In the first 25 games of his rookie season, while Fred Hoiberg was the coach, Carter attempted 25 3-point attempts. In the 52 games since then, Carter has attempted 26 3s. To be fair, he’s made only 10 of those shots, and thus there is a case he shouldn’t be taking them. However, the bigger problem is more in regard to him just not looking nearly as confident when receiving the ball away from the hoop.
He doesn’t really even look to shoot it most of the time, and it’s allowed teams to just play off of him completely. That clogs the lane for drivers and is a huge reason the Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA at finishing at the basket in halfcourt scenarios this season. They also don’t really utilize him as an offensive initiator at all. There are often questions about whether Carter is assertive enough on offense. I think it’s more a byproduct of role than a decision on his part.
Mostly, they’ve used Carter as a traditional big man. They have him set screens and act in dribble-handoffs, then roll straight to the basket or reset for another screen. That’s kind of a problem because Carter isn’t a particularly strong gravitational threat as a roller. He has good hands and good touch around the rim, but the lack of explosiveness means defenders don’t have to work incredibly hard to tag him on the backside of the action when he rolls because the big defender is able to recover onto him a bit easier. That hurts the Bulls ball movement because it creates fewer cross-corner kick opportunities for their guards and fewer opportunities to get defenses into rotation.
So with him not being much of a shooting threat right now, and not being much of a roll threat, how has Carter gotten his offense? His feel for the game and ability to make little plays that don’t show up in the stat sheet is off the charts. But with the ball, he’s pretty good on the block because of his footwork and touch. He typically scores a couple of points a game getting those chances. He also runs the floor well as a trailer. More than that, though, Carter is one of the best contested rebounders in the NBA, on both ends of the floor. He’s eighth in the NBA, averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds per game, with over three-quarters of those being contested. He also averages 2.6 contested defensive rebounds per game, which is 12th in the NBA. Basically, Carter is great at creating second-chance opportunities out of nothing for his teammates, and that has resulted in 85 points for Carter off of put-backs, fifth in the league.
In a lot of ways, Carter’s game presents a weird case of diminishing returns on both sides. If you’d rather see Carter pick-and-popped into shooting opportunities or short-rolled into the midrange for passing chances, you’re ostensibly taking away some potential offensive rebounding chances, which results in fewer second chances. But I’d rather have the effects you get from a spacing big than the marginally fewer second chances he creates. It’s on Carter to prove that he can be as useful in these settings in the NBA as he was in college, but I think that world does exist.
While I’m relatively disappointed in Carter’s role on offense, I’m encouraged with what we’ve seen from him on defense. He’s been the anchor on a defense ranked in the top five, according to defensive ratings this season. Kris Dunn might be the guy who sets the tone and gets more All-Defense votes, but Carter is the most important piece. He’s foul-prone but extremely intelligent positionally while playing with terrific effort inside. I actually think he does a pretty good job of using the principle of verticality to contest, and has good hand-eye coordination about how to affect opposing players’ shots. He’s not an elite shot-blocker, but he’s good at affecting things inside. At 20, he also is pretty good already at organizing the defense from behind his teammates, which is a great sign for his career.
He’s contested 205 shots inside through Dec. 30, which is sixth-most in the league. He’s not the most mobile big man in the world, but he’s fluid enough to execute Chicago’s aggressive pick-and-roll hedging defense that often leaves him 25 feet from the hoop. That’s where his effort level shines, as he’s often left far away from the hoop and must recover. I’d be interested to see him in more of a drop coverage scheme given that his combination of strength and footwork allows him to wall guys off on drives well. It would also allow him to control the glass in a way that he’s not quite capable of now because he often gets caught having to fly in for a spectacular rebound while recovering as opposed to being able to use his big frame to box out from the interior to clear out his area. His defensive rebounding rate of 23.2 isn’t particularly strong for a center, but it’s a scheme-based number as opposed to a skillset based one.
In general, I think Carter is the player on the Bulls whose skillset isn’t being actualized to the best extent. He’s good already, even in a scheme that doesn’t totally fit what he’s good at doing. But he has real potential to be a top-10 center in the league if he gets into the right situation with Chicago. He’s the Bulls’ best young player.