Devilsforlife
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Bagley was still Duke's best player last year.
rome8180
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Watching 20 seconds of these games it's clear how far ahead Carter is in his understanding of the game. I know some people are probably sick of my obsession with him, but I feel like you have to be blind to not see it. He's constantly relocating, setting the right screens, getting in position, etc. And that's not even to touch on his defensive awareness.
This comparison is insulting to me in the same way it would be for someone to seriously compare a Michael Bay film to something sophisticated and artistic. I get that there are people who like the Michael Bay movie more, but their opinions are kinda shit.
This comparison is insulting to me in the same way it would be for someone to seriously compare a Michael Bay film to something sophisticated and artistic. I get that there are people who like the Michael Bay movie more, but their opinions are kinda shit.
DurhamSon
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Did NCCU write this post?
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Offensively, yes.
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He didn't (whisper) it or shit on the Panthers, so, no.
Devilsforlife
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I enjoyed Carter a lot, but getting owned by Luke Maye twice and air balling that layup at the end of the Kansas game marr his Duke career somewhat. Still our best low post defender since Shelden Williams, though.
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Getting owned by Luke Maye is something we will be able to say about 6-8 Duke bigs who ultimately play in the NBA, including Z1on.
rome8180
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Watched him tonight. He was terrific. But I found myself getting annoyed with our coaching staff. Why do we use our bigs the way we do? In summer league, he's basically been setting picks and rolling to the basket over and over. Here's the weird part: the guards actually hit him on the roll. And he either takes a midrange, dunks it, or gets fouled. Strange that this very common basketball strategy works.
Have we ever really hit the roll man? When we run pick and roll, it's like there are three options: guard comes off the screen and takes a three, guard gets to the rim, guard gets partway to the rim and kicks out to another guard for a three.
It's not even pick and roll we're running. It's just pick. This is not just about Carter. Tyus would hit Jahlil occcasionally on the roll, but that's about it.
Have we ever really hit the roll man? When we run pick and roll, it's like there are three options: guard comes off the screen and takes a three, guard gets to the rim, guard gets partway to the rim and kicks out to another guard for a three.
It's not even pick and roll we're running. It's just pick. This is not just about Carter. Tyus would hit Jahlil occcasionally on the roll, but that's about it.
physicsfactor
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I think it’s because we haven’t had real PGs lately. Hitting the rolling big man off the dribble is not as easy passing out to a wing waiting for a 3. Tyus would hit the roll man. Off the top of my head in the championship game alone I can think of him hitting Amile for a layup at the end of the first half and hitting Marshall in the 2nd who fumbled it but then kicked out to Grayson for the 3 that sparked the run. I imagine Duval might have been able to execute this if opponents would have had to guard Duval on ball screens. But guys like Grayson aren’t going to execute much other than a drive and dish/lob or kickout.
That’s my totally full of shit Yatesian answer that I can in no way back up with data.
That’s my totally full of shit Yatesian answer that I can in no way back up with data.
burksballer20
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Seth Curry was one of the worst. They would corral him off the screen and there were numerous times the roll guy was wide open. No idea why we never hit the roll man
rome8180
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@physicsfactor, that could be, but I feel like even when we have had a real PG we didn't do it as much as I would expect. Surprisingly, Rasheed Sulaimon was actually very good at it for a SG.
And Allen is a pretty good passer, so I am surprised he couldn't do this pretty basic thing. Watching summer league, every guard regardless of position seems to know how to do it.
And Allen is a pretty good passer, so I am surprised he couldn't do this pretty basic thing. Watching summer league, every guard regardless of position seems to know how to do it.
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Bill Simmon is all aboard the Carter bandwagon now. Said in his latest podcast he'd be stunned if Bagley turns out to be better than Carter. So Duke will probably have two pros starting this season that all eye-test media and all analytics people agree are good.
surfpenguin
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The fact that our guards rarely pass to the roll man has to be blamed on coaching. Do the coaches not understand a pick and roll? Do they willfully choose not to integrate it into the offense? It's bewildering.
rhfarmer
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Hard to see those big guys when you are high AF.
rome8180
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Sam Vecenie has Carter as the #1 prospect on the Bulls. The Bulls are 10th overall in the prospect list. Something to note: he wrote these articles throughout the season, so this one was actually published back in late December.
1. Wendell Carter, C | 20 years old | Three years, $17.3 million, last year team option
2019-20 stats: 12.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 56.8/13.3/70.4; 2018-19 stats: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 48.5/18.8/79.5
Carter has been the Bulls most consistently good youngster this year, thus placing him in the top spot of these rankings. Even more impressively though, he has been impressive despite being misused within Chicago’s offense.
The No. 7 overall pick out of Duke in 2018, Carter profiled as an interesting hybrid of both past and present generations of big men. While he came up as more of a back-to-the-basket big at prep levels, Carter displayed an awful lot of perimeter skill and footwork at Duke. Coach K and his staff utilized him a lot in high-low actions with Marvin Bagley, asking him to create with his vision and passing ability. They also had him act as a pick-and-pop floor-spacer, allowing him to take 46 3-pointers, shots he made at a 41.3 percent clip. He wasn’t the most mobile or explosive player, but his skill and polish made scouts buy into him as a modern center.
Those skills haven’t translated since Boylen took over the team. In the first 25 games of his rookie season, while Fred Hoiberg was the coach, Carter attempted 25 3-point attempts. In the 52 games since then, Carter has attempted 26 3s. To be fair, he’s made only 10 of those shots, and thus there is a case he shouldn’t be taking them. However, the bigger problem is more in regard to him just not looking nearly as confident when receiving the ball away from the hoop.
He doesn’t really even look to shoot it most of the time, and it’s allowed teams to just play off of him completely. That clogs the lane for drivers and is a huge reason the Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA at finishing at the basket in halfcourt scenarios this season. They also don’t really utilize him as an offensive initiator at all. There are often questions about whether Carter is assertive enough on offense. I think it’s more a byproduct of role than a decision on his part.
Mostly, they’ve used Carter as a traditional big man. They have him set screens and act in dribble-handoffs, then roll straight to the basket or reset for another screen. That’s kind of a problem because Carter isn’t a particularly strong gravitational threat as a roller. He has good hands and good touch around the rim, but the lack of explosiveness means defenders don’t have to work incredibly hard to tag him on the backside of the action when he rolls because the big defender is able to recover onto him a bit easier. That hurts the Bulls ball movement because it creates fewer cross-corner kick opportunities for their guards and fewer opportunities to get defenses into rotation.
So with him not being much of a shooting threat right now, and not being much of a roll threat, how has Carter gotten his offense? His feel for the game and ability to make little plays that don’t show up in the stat sheet is off the charts. But with the ball, he’s pretty good on the block because of his footwork and touch. He typically scores a couple of points a game getting those chances. He also runs the floor well as a trailer. More than that, though, Carter is one of the best contested rebounders in the NBA, on both ends of the floor. He’s eighth in the NBA, averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds per game, with over three-quarters of those being contested. He also averages 2.6 contested defensive rebounds per game, which is 12th in the NBA. Basically, Carter is great at creating second-chance opportunities out of nothing for his teammates, and that has resulted in 85 points for Carter off of put-backs, fifth in the league.
In a lot of ways, Carter’s game presents a weird case of diminishing returns on both sides. If you’d rather see Carter pick-and-popped into shooting opportunities or short-rolled into the midrange for passing chances, you’re ostensibly taking away some potential offensive rebounding chances, which results in fewer second chances. But I’d rather have the effects you get from a spacing big than the marginally fewer second chances he creates. It’s on Carter to prove that he can be as useful in these settings in the NBA as he was in college, but I think that world does exist.
While I’m relatively disappointed in Carter’s role on offense, I’m encouraged with what we’ve seen from him on defense. He’s been the anchor on a defense ranked in the top five, according to defensive ratings this season. Kris Dunn might be the guy who sets the tone and gets more All-Defense votes, but Carter is the most important piece. He’s foul-prone but extremely intelligent positionally while playing with terrific effort inside. I actually think he does a pretty good job of using the principle of verticality to contest, and has good hand-eye coordination about how to affect opposing players’ shots. He’s not an elite shot-blocker, but he’s good at affecting things inside. At 20, he also is pretty good already at organizing the defense from behind his teammates, which is a great sign for his career.
He’s contested 205 shots inside through Dec. 30, which is sixth-most in the league. He’s not the most mobile big man in the world, but he’s fluid enough to execute Chicago’s aggressive pick-and-roll hedging defense that often leaves him 25 feet from the hoop. That’s where his effort level shines, as he’s often left far away from the hoop and must recover. I’d be interested to see him in more of a drop coverage scheme given that his combination of strength and footwork allows him to wall guys off on drives well. It would also allow him to control the glass in a way that he’s not quite capable of now because he often gets caught having to fly in for a spectacular rebound while recovering as opposed to being able to use his big frame to box out from the interior to clear out his area. His defensive rebounding rate of 23.2 isn’t particularly strong for a center, but it’s a scheme-based number as opposed to a skillset based one.
In general, I think Carter is the player on the Bulls whose skillset isn’t being actualized to the best extent. He’s good already, even in a scheme that doesn’t totally fit what he’s good at doing. But he has real potential to be a top-10 center in the league if he gets into the right situation with Chicago. He’s the Bulls’ best young player.
1. Wendell Carter, C | 20 years old | Three years, $17.3 million, last year team option
2019-20 stats: 12.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 56.8/13.3/70.4; 2018-19 stats: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 48.5/18.8/79.5
Carter has been the Bulls most consistently good youngster this year, thus placing him in the top spot of these rankings. Even more impressively though, he has been impressive despite being misused within Chicago’s offense.
The No. 7 overall pick out of Duke in 2018, Carter profiled as an interesting hybrid of both past and present generations of big men. While he came up as more of a back-to-the-basket big at prep levels, Carter displayed an awful lot of perimeter skill and footwork at Duke. Coach K and his staff utilized him a lot in high-low actions with Marvin Bagley, asking him to create with his vision and passing ability. They also had him act as a pick-and-pop floor-spacer, allowing him to take 46 3-pointers, shots he made at a 41.3 percent clip. He wasn’t the most mobile or explosive player, but his skill and polish made scouts buy into him as a modern center.
Those skills haven’t translated since Boylen took over the team. In the first 25 games of his rookie season, while Fred Hoiberg was the coach, Carter attempted 25 3-point attempts. In the 52 games since then, Carter has attempted 26 3s. To be fair, he’s made only 10 of those shots, and thus there is a case he shouldn’t be taking them. However, the bigger problem is more in regard to him just not looking nearly as confident when receiving the ball away from the hoop.
He doesn’t really even look to shoot it most of the time, and it’s allowed teams to just play off of him completely. That clogs the lane for drivers and is a huge reason the Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA at finishing at the basket in halfcourt scenarios this season. They also don’t really utilize him as an offensive initiator at all. There are often questions about whether Carter is assertive enough on offense. I think it’s more a byproduct of role than a decision on his part.
Mostly, they’ve used Carter as a traditional big man. They have him set screens and act in dribble-handoffs, then roll straight to the basket or reset for another screen. That’s kind of a problem because Carter isn’t a particularly strong gravitational threat as a roller. He has good hands and good touch around the rim, but the lack of explosiveness means defenders don’t have to work incredibly hard to tag him on the backside of the action when he rolls because the big defender is able to recover onto him a bit easier. That hurts the Bulls ball movement because it creates fewer cross-corner kick opportunities for their guards and fewer opportunities to get defenses into rotation.
So with him not being much of a shooting threat right now, and not being much of a roll threat, how has Carter gotten his offense? His feel for the game and ability to make little plays that don’t show up in the stat sheet is off the charts. But with the ball, he’s pretty good on the block because of his footwork and touch. He typically scores a couple of points a game getting those chances. He also runs the floor well as a trailer. More than that, though, Carter is one of the best contested rebounders in the NBA, on both ends of the floor. He’s eighth in the NBA, averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds per game, with over three-quarters of those being contested. He also averages 2.6 contested defensive rebounds per game, which is 12th in the NBA. Basically, Carter is great at creating second-chance opportunities out of nothing for his teammates, and that has resulted in 85 points for Carter off of put-backs, fifth in the league.
In a lot of ways, Carter’s game presents a weird case of diminishing returns on both sides. If you’d rather see Carter pick-and-popped into shooting opportunities or short-rolled into the midrange for passing chances, you’re ostensibly taking away some potential offensive rebounding chances, which results in fewer second chances. But I’d rather have the effects you get from a spacing big than the marginally fewer second chances he creates. It’s on Carter to prove that he can be as useful in these settings in the NBA as he was in college, but I think that world does exist.
While I’m relatively disappointed in Carter’s role on offense, I’m encouraged with what we’ve seen from him on defense. He’s been the anchor on a defense ranked in the top five, according to defensive ratings this season. Kris Dunn might be the guy who sets the tone and gets more All-Defense votes, but Carter is the most important piece. He’s foul-prone but extremely intelligent positionally while playing with terrific effort inside. I actually think he does a pretty good job of using the principle of verticality to contest, and has good hand-eye coordination about how to affect opposing players’ shots. He’s not an elite shot-blocker, but he’s good at affecting things inside. At 20, he also is pretty good already at organizing the defense from behind his teammates, which is a great sign for his career.
He’s contested 205 shots inside through Dec. 30, which is sixth-most in the league. He’s not the most mobile big man in the world, but he’s fluid enough to execute Chicago’s aggressive pick-and-roll hedging defense that often leaves him 25 feet from the hoop. That’s where his effort level shines, as he’s often left far away from the hoop and must recover. I’d be interested to see him in more of a drop coverage scheme given that his combination of strength and footwork allows him to wall guys off on drives well. It would also allow him to control the glass in a way that he’s not quite capable of now because he often gets caught having to fly in for a spectacular rebound while recovering as opposed to being able to use his big frame to box out from the interior to clear out his area. His defensive rebounding rate of 23.2 isn’t particularly strong for a center, but it’s a scheme-based number as opposed to a skillset based one.
In general, I think Carter is the player on the Bulls whose skillset isn’t being actualized to the best extent. He’s good already, even in a scheme that doesn’t totally fit what he’s good at doing. But he has real potential to be a top-10 center in the league if he gets into the right situation with Chicago. He’s the Bulls’ best young player.
rome8180
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Probably. He actually had White one spot ahead of Carter in his overall prospect rankings that he did later (#29 versus #30).
But Carter's season stats finished pretty much where they were at the point of this writeup. And he had this addendum in the overall prospect rankings:
"Addendum: Carter got hurt soon after publication and essentially missed two months. When he came back, it was clear he was working himself into shape. Very few players have been more misused over the last two years than Carter on offense (his teammate in the frontcourt is another one, as you’ll see in a second). With Arturos Karnisovas taking over as executive vice president of basketball operations in April, I anticipate Jim Boylen will be let go and something resembling a modern offensive attack will be put in place. That should help Carter realize his full potential. It wouldn’t stun me if we look up and see him is one of the breakout players in the NBA next season."
But Carter's season stats finished pretty much where they were at the point of this writeup. And he had this addendum in the overall prospect rankings:
"Addendum: Carter got hurt soon after publication and essentially missed two months. When he came back, it was clear he was working himself into shape. Very few players have been more misused over the last two years than Carter on offense (his teammate in the frontcourt is another one, as you’ll see in a second). With Arturos Karnisovas taking over as executive vice president of basketball operations in April, I anticipate Jim Boylen will be let go and something resembling a modern offensive attack will be put in place. That should help Carter realize his full potential. It wouldn’t stun me if we look up and see him is one of the breakout players in the NBA next season."