[2018-19] UNC, at Syracuse, at VT, Miami, Wake, at UNC

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke heads into March against a slate of opponents that will put its 3-point shooting to the test.


NORTH CAROLINA

Wednesday, February 20, 9:00pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium

Kenpom Information

UNC: 8 overall, 7 offense, 19 defense
Projection: Duke 90, UNC 79 (Duke 83% to win)

Same Old Roy

If you've seen one Roy Williams team, you've seen them all. The only thing keeping these Duke/UNC games interesting from a tactical standpoint is Duke's offensive strengths and weaknesses changing wildly from season to season. On offense, UNC will rely heavily on its point guard to play fast while protecting the ball, they'll pound the glass and they'll use a championship-winning philosophy that emphasizes midrange jumpers over 3s and free throws. On defense, UNC will protect the rim without fouling, they'll ignore 3s and they won't be aggressive going for turnovers. It will be this way until the end of time, and they're probably not done winning titles playing this way.

Defensively, Duke should not be a disaster against UNC. Even with terrible defensive rebounding against UNC's dominant offensive rebounding, much worse Duke teams have found a way to beat much better UNC teams. Offensively, however, no Duke team in recent memory has been this bad at making 3s, so the offense might struggle more than we're used to seeing against Roy's "don't defend 3s" defense.

Coby White: Best White in this Game and Best Point Guard in this Game?

UNC's national relevance this season appeared to be over when they were embarrassed by Louisville at Chapel Hill. Coby White finished the game with 4 points, 2 assists and 4 turnovers in 19 minutes. Since then, White has had the look of an all-time great 3-year player at UNC. In his last 9 games, he has shot 42% from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game and averaged 5 assists per game with over a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio. His offensive rating over this span has been around 120, on usage in the high 20s.

White's sudden awakening on defense has been just as impressive. In the 16 games ending with the bottoming out against Louisville, he had 9 steals. In the 9 games since, he has had 16 steals. A dramatic increase in steals doesn't necessarily mean White is playing better defense, but it at least shows he's alive on that end of the court. Given White's meteoric rise and already excellent play as a freshman, it must be painful for Duke fans to cope with the fact that he'll still be at UNC as a junior and possibly as a senior.

Meanwhile, Tre Jones is still great for Duke. Over the course of the season, he won't match White in offensive importance or scoring, but head-to-head, he can essentially win the game for Duke by shutting White down. If White is ever on the bench, UNC's backup point guard is Seventh Woods. Here's a stat that's impossible to believe if you haven't watched UNC much this season: Woods has a turnover rate of 35%.


at SYRACUSE

Saturday, February 23, 6:00pm ET, ESPN
Carrier Dome

Kenpom Information

Syracuse: 43 overall, 97 offense, 22 defense
Projection: Duke 78, Syracuse 67 (Duke 85% to win)

Same Old Syracuse

Syracuse has actually been slightly worse since their win at Duke. Still can't shoot from anywhere, still playing a defense that should naturally work well against Duke. A few major differences we can expect to see in the rematch include Tre playing more than 6 minutes, Duke making more than 9 3s if they take 43 of them (21%) and Syracuse making fewer than 11 3s if they take 25 of them (44%).

It may sound strange, but this is pretty much a must-win game for Duke. Duke can't allow a mediocre team to sweep them by simply trotting out a 2-3 zone for 40 minutes (or more). For the sake of the team in March, the Duke coaches need to show they can come up with a plan to beat this defense other than by chucking 40+ 3s. With two elite wings who can both penetrate and pass from the middle of a zone at an elite level, there must be another way to go about this if the 3s aren't miraculously falling.


at VIRGINIA TECH

Tuesday, February 26, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Cassell Coliseum

Kenpom Information

VT: 12 overall, 10 offense, 32 defense
Projection: Duke 77, VT 72 (Duke 66% to win)

Justin Robinson of VT: Best Justin Robinson in this Game?

This had all the makings of another Duke loss in Blacksburg, and then VT's point guard went on crutches. VT appeared to be the 2nd toughest matchup for Duke in the ACC, behind UVA. They slow the game down almost as much as UVA and they make shots from everywhere - their eFG% is 4th in the country and they have 6 regulars shooting over 41% from 3 (another is at 38%). On defense, they play plenty of zone and they're in the bottom 10 teams in the country at preventing 3s. Duke will need to make jumpers at a halfway decent rate to be competitive in this game.

Without Robinson, VT has not been good, though. After a fluky 47-24 win against NC State in which NC State shot 7% from 3, VT has strung together four poor-to-mediocre performances. If Robinson returns at full strength, this would the most predictable loss left on Duke's schedule. If Robinson is still out, this is just another tough road test.


MIAMI

Saturday, March 2, 4:00pm ET, CBS
Cameron Indoor Stadium

Kenpom Information

Miami: 71 overall, 70 offense, 97 defense
Projection: Duke 87, Miami 65 (Duke 98% to win)

Not the Same Old Miami

This is a down season for Jim Larranaga, his worst at Miami. By now, we all know what it means when a bad team comes to Cameron this season: Duke will come out with zero effort whatsoever, look like trash until early in the 2nd half, decide it would be best to win the game, quickly go up by 20+ and then coast to a win that was never in doubt. This game can be useful practice for Duke as it looks ahead to the NCAA Tournament, in that Miami is another opponent that plays lots of zone and gives up lots of 3s.

The Miami player you'll hear the most about is Chris Lykes, but he's terrible on paper. Miami's best player has been 6-10 senior Ebeka Izundu, who should give Marques Bolden fans hope that Bolden will continue improving his biggest weakness, defensive rebounding. Izundu's defensive rebounding rates have increased from 8.7% as a freshman to 14% as a sophomore, to 16% as a junior, and now to 22% as a senior. Izundu's offensive rating of 126 and true shooting of 67% are both in or around the top 10 in the ACC.


WAKE FOREST

at NORTH CAROLINA

Saturday, March 9, Time TBA, ESPN
Dean E. Smith Center

Kenpom projection: Duke 86, UNC 83 (Duke 63% to win)

I'm just going to copy and paste from last season, with updates for how the game and season turned out:

**********

As has been discussed here in previous seasons, the final regular season game between Duke and UNC has had incredible predictive value on how each team performs in the NCAA Tournament.

2018
Winner: Duke
Duke lost in E8
UNC lost in R2

2017
Winner: UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in R2

2016
UNC
UNC lost in title game
Duke lost in S16

2015
Duke
Duke won title
UNC lost in S16

2014
Duke
Duke lost in R1
UNC lost in R2

2013
Duke
Duke lost in E8
UNC lost in R2

2012
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1

2011
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in S16

2010
Duke
Duke won title
UNC to NIT

2009
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16

2008
UNC
UNC lost in F4
Duke lost in R2

2007
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1

2006
UNC
UNC lost in R2
Duke lost in S16

2005
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16

2004
Duke
Duke lost in F4
UNC lost in R2

Since 2004, which covers the last 15 seasons, the loser of this game has never advanced past the Sweet Sixteen. In 9 of 15, the loser's season has ended in the 2nd round or sooner. On the other hand, in 13 of 15, the winner has reached at least the Elite Eight. In 8 of 15, the winner has reached at least the Final Four.

Believing in historical performance to project future results is not entirely rational. However, it's difficult to see this trend over 15 years and not believe this game is important for reasons beyond the obvious.

**********

Assuming all goes reasonably well and there are no major injuries in this final stretch, Duke will enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the biggest favorites ever, in the same dominant tier as 1999 Duke and 2015 Kentucky. Whether Duke joins those teams as historic failures will come down to a few coin flip events and what is essentially a random number generator, from bracket selection to hot/cold shooting, to lucky/unlucky bounces, to how all the upsets in the bracket play out, to untimely injuries. Or Zion can cement his place as the best freshman in history and eliminate all of the randomness by putting the team on his back and destroying every team in Duke's way.

 

[rome8180]

I can't stop laughing at the Wake picture.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It’s from the fire Manning Twitter account. I think it’s a blend of his face with Crying Jordan? Not sure.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Nope I think that is just Danny Manning.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I still find it so weird now the second Duke-UNC game is such a good predictor for how the NCAAT will unfold for both teams. We need to win in Chapel Hill. Anything less than 4-2 during this stretch would be an abject failure, and I'll be disappointed if we don't go at least 5-1.

 

[dukeboy911]

Very interesting stuff re: the 2nd match

 

[physicsfactor]

Good stuff, Sean. Now I do not care at all if Duke wins the first UNC game.

 

[DurhamSon]

Ah fuck, games in front of him have been nothing but embarrassing losses for us.

 

[TS9]

If you wish to feel optimistic about the second-game Duke-UNC predictor, in 12 of the 15 years on this list, the higher-ranked team won the second meeting. Barring a series of troubling events unfolding over the next few weeks, Duke should enter that game as the higher-ranked team.

On the other hand, all three games won by the lower-ranked team were UNC victories (2006, 2011 and 2012).

 

[DurhamSon]

Off the court factors are heavily tilted against Duke in this matchup:

- Tradition of playing like fucking shit against UNC in Cameron for large swaths of the game this entire decade

- Playing as #1 team

- Playing in front of a US President

- Playing a game that essentially decides the regular season


I feel like Duke typically shits themselves when one or more of those factors are at play.


We will be down by 8-12 points at some point, probably in the first half. That's a given. We'll see if the typical 2nd half burst is enough to take back the lead.

 

[TS9]

Also not a big fan of the scenarios and circumstances entering this game, but whatever. It is what it is.

The somewhat atypical nature of our last three games – outlier 3-point shooting @UVa, the insane events of @UofL, then kinda sleepwalking through a come-down game vs. NCSU – makes it hard for me to get a good feel for the overall health of Duke's game right now.

 

[rhfarmer]

I'm not worried about UNC, honestly. It would suck to lose to them, but this team is the best team K has had in 20 years.

 

[DurhamSon]

Duke/UNC in Cameron since we started featuring OADs:

2011: Down by 16 in the first half to an inferior UNC, squeaked out a 6 point win thanks to the heroics of Nolan Smith and Seth Curry

2012: Absolute ass-kicking, trailed by 24 points at halftime. I can't find the play-by-play but if memory serves we "threatened" by cutting it to 12-14 or so, but that was it.

2013: A great Duke team trailed at halftime to UNC's worst team in the last decade. Squeaked out a 5 point win because the team was able to go on a run despite foul trouble from Mason

2014: As was typical that year, we got a pretty big early lead but couldn't sustain it, led by 3 at half. Actually opened up quite a sizable lead with 8 minutes left or so, but let them cut it to single digits with a few minutes remaining. I guess we went wire-to-wire and UNC didn't really threaten in the 2nd half, so probably the most "normal" game you'd expect against an inferior team at Cameron.

2015 - Duke looked good, leading by 13 at home with a little over 2 minutes in the first. But let UNC cut it to 7 by half. Trend continued and UNC was leading five minutes in the 2nd. Team couldn't catch up and it looked like we were done when this inferior UNC team led by 10 with less than four minutes left. Took a huge choke from UNC involving missed rebounds, free throws, and turnovers for Duke to go to OT and win.

2016 - Duke played a far superior UNC team tough, and it looked like they might actually steal this one after they tied it with about 11 minutes left despite being dominated on the boards. They kept it within 2 possessions down the stretch but just couldn't quite close the gap, even cutting it to two with 13 and 5 seconds left. This time though UNC made their FTs and Duke lost.

2017 - Extremely close game between two good teams. Pretty close throughout the first and second, though it looked like Duke might start to run-away when they went up 8, but UNC came back and Duke lost the lead with about 11 minutes left. Grayson and Jayson helped close things out in a game we did just enough to stay ahead by a few points in the last couple of minutes

2018 - You'll remember this as the game we couldn't do jack shit on offense the last 5:30 in the first half, and let an inferior UNC take a 10 point halftime lead because we only scored two points in that span, a cold-streak we'd seen all season from this team. However UNC went on their own cold streak the last 6 minutes of the contest and Duke hit quite enough 3s to open enough of a cushion that they were able to put the game away.


So in 7 out of 8 games Duke trailed, by double digits in 5 of those games. Still won 6 of them somehow. Didn't matter if UNC was better or worse. There's a trend and it's playing like shit to fall behind at some point, and Roy really having trouble closing out games.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Sagarin likes UNC much more than Kenpom does, would only have Duke as an 8-point favorite at home. Kenpom has Duke by 11. I think the line will end up at around 9. Duke, UNC, Buffalo and Lipscomb are the only teams in the Kenpom top 50 who also have top 25 tempo, so these Duke/UNC games will be a rare display of good basketball played extremely fast.

 

[uncy12]

Since 09, there’s been a lot of bad moments in this game for UNC. Not being able to hold onto a 16 point lead at half, 2012 Rivers shot, the 2015 choke in Cameron, losing at home in 2016. I do think my Heels are more likely to win at Cameron than at home which sounds absurd in its’ face.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Duke/UNC in Cameron since we started featuring OADs:

2011: Down by 16 in the first half, squeaked out a 6 point win thanks to the heroics of Nolan Smith and Seth Curry

2012: Absolute ass-kicking, trailed by 24 points at halftime. I can't find the play-by-play but if memory serves we "threatened" by cutting it to 12-14 or so, but that was it.

2013: A great Duke team trailed at halftime to UNC's worst team in the last decade. Squeaked out a 5 point win because the team was able to go on a run despite foul trouble from Mason

2014: As was typical that year, we got a pretty big early lead but couldn't sustain it, led by 3 at half. Actually opened up quite a sizable lead with 8 minutes left or so, but let them cut it to single digits with a few minutes remaining. I guess we went wire-to-wire and UNC didn't really threaten in the 2nd half, so probably the most "normal" game you'd expect against an inferior team at Cameron.

2015 - Duke looked good, leading by 13 at home with a little over 2 minutes in the first. But let UNC cut it to 7 by half. Trend continued and UNC was leading five minutes in the 2nd. Team couldn't catch up and it looked like we were done when this inferior UNC team led by 10 with less than four minutes left. Took a huge choke from UNC involving missed rebounds, free throws, and turnovers for Duke to go to OT and win.

2016 - Duke played a far superior UNC team tough, and it looked like they might actually steal this one after they tied it with about 11 minutes left. They kept it within 2 possessions down the stretch but just couldn't quite close the gap, even cutting it to two with 13 and 5 seconds left. This time though UNC made their FTs and Duke lost.

2017 - Extremely close game between two good teams. Pretty close throughout the first and second, though it looked like Duke might start to run-away when they went up 8, but UNC came back and lost the lead with about 11 minutes left. Grayson and Jayson helped close things out in a game we did just enough to stay ahead by a few points in the last couple of minutes

2018 - You'll remember this as the game we couldn't do jack shit on offense the last 5:30 in the first half, and let an inferior UNC take a 10 point halftime lead because we only scored two points in that span, a cold-streak we'd seen all season from this team. However UNC went on their own cold streak the last 6 minutes of the contest and Duke hit quite enough 3s to open enough of a cushion that they were able to put the game away.


So in 7 out of 8 games Duke trailed, by double digits in 5 of those games. Still won 6 of them somehow. Didn't matter if UNC was better or worse. There's a trend and it's playing like shit to fall behind at some point, and Roy really having trouble closing out games.

Good post. We've only lost at home to UNC twice this decade - and they had the better team both times - but our performances have been very uneven. I do wish you'd started with 2010 though, as you can never mention 82-50 often enough.

 

[physicsfactor]

I can't forget that coaching blunder at the end of the 2016 game. Duke was down 9 with 3 min but got it to down 4 with 50 sec left. Instead of fouling immediately, K elected to let UNC (that had totally dominated the boards) run the clock down, miss a shot, get the offensive rebound, and then foul with 24 sec left. UNC was still over 90% to win no matter what, but it was just an ultra old school decision that killed any small chance at a comeback.

 

[physicsfactor]

I don't like having a poor shooting team vs UNC. That's usually what evens the game out for Duke after being dominated on the boards. I also don't like the idea of trying to run with UNC. I know on paper that should work for Duke this year, but I'm afraid our guys will get tired and sloppy late. Plus lots of possession increases the chances of Zion getting in foul trouble. White is the only guy close to that valuable for UNC, and he won't have to worry about fouls guarding Tre.

 

[DurhamSon]

It's a lot more important to win this game than I thought: UNC has 3 absolute walks in the park remaining with home contests against FSU, Cuse and BC. And I don't think Clemson is actually going to challenge them in the one other road game they have left.

Baking in the coinflip of a loss at one of @Cuse/@VT, if we don't win on Wednesday we're gonna have to go into Chapel Hill for what's likely a game to decide the regular season, and potentially letting UNC leap onto the one-line (lazy narrative will be: how can Duke get a 1 seed over a team that swept them!). On the other hand, we win and UNC is realistically locked out of the reg season title (and 1 seed in the ACCT) plus has no chance of getting a 1 seed in the NCAAT


So for fucks sake, don't lose a game in which we'll be favored by double digits.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I don't like having a poor shooting team vs UNC. That's usually what evens the game out for Duke after being dominated on the boards. I also don't like the idea of trying to run with UNC. I know on paper that should work for Duke this year, but I'm afraid our guys will get tired and sloppy late. Plus lots of possession increases the chances of Zion getting in foul trouble. White is the only guy close to that valuable for UNC, and he won't have to worry about fouls guarding Tre.

Yeah but running this season is a different case with UNC than in most seasons. Usually UNC will kill teams in the post on the secondary break in their early offense- UNC doesn't have much of that this season as this is their weakest big man rotation I can ever remember. They have that advantage because they usually have talented 4 and 5 star bigs which stay 3-4 years and develop well within Roy's specific system. Last season they had no big men doing anything, and this season Garrison Brooks is averaging 8 and 6, but that's largely due to him playing in a system favorable to his skill level which allows him to get more scoring opportunities than he probably should.

UNC is going to run at Duke with a very similar roster construction. What obviously separates the two is Duke has superior talent, and when you have two teams with a similar make-up, usually the team with more talent wins out. If this was a typical UNC team imposing their style on us, I would be worried, but this isn't that.