[2018-19] UNC, at Syracuse, at VT, Miami, Wake, at UNC

[Slap the Floor]

I don't think there is any doubt that Wednesday night will be Nas Little's coming out party. He'll probably go for like 15-16 points with some nice transition points and a big dunk, and he'll play good defense on either Barrett or Zion and everyone's going to suck Roy's cock for this superior player development of a pre-season projected top 5 pick now playing to his potential.

 

[DurhamSon]

I'm not worried about fucking Garrison Brooks, i'm worried that White/Johnson/Maye are going to combine for 13-25 from 3 and Cam/RJ will combine for 5-24.

I was much happier when White was challenging Adam Boone and Larry Drew for highest turnover rate by a UNC PG. Not the White in the last month alongside a Tre Jones who isn't really getting steals anymore.

I'm hoping the staff game plans it in such a way that UNC runs their offense through Maye. I'd feel pretty confident in that scenario.

 

[Devilsforlife]

It's a lot more important to win this game than I thought: UNC has 3 absolute walks in the park remaining with home contests against FSU, Cuse and BC. And I don't think Clemson is actually going to challenge them in the one other road game they have left.

Baking in the coinflip of a loss at one of @Cuse/@VT, if we don't win on Wednesday we're gonna have to go into Chapel Hill for what's likely a game to decide the regular season, and potentially letting UNC leap onto the one-line (lazy narrative will be: how can Duke get a 1 seed over a team that swept them!). On the other hand, we win and UNC is realistically locked out of the reg season title (and 1 seed in the ACCT) plus has no chance of getting a 1 seed in the NCAAT


So for fucks sake, don't lose a game in which we'll be favored by double digits.

All we need is a split against UNC and in the road games against Syracuse and VT to almost certainly win the ACC and lock up the #1 overall seed. If we can't accomplish that, K can go fuck himself.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

It's a lot more important to win this game than I thought: UNC has 3 absolute walks in the park remaining with home contests against FSU, Cuse and BC. And I don't think Clemson is actually going to challenge them in the one other road game they have left.

Baking in the coinflip of a loss at one of @Cuse/@VT, if we don't win on Wednesday we're gonna have to go into Chapel Hill for what's likely a game to decide the regular season, and potentially letting UNC leap onto the one-line (lazy narrative will be: how can Duke get a 1 seed over a team that swept them!). On the other hand, we win and UNC is realistically locked out of the reg season title (and 1 seed in the ACCT) plus has no chance of getting a 1 seed in the NCAAT


So for fucks sake, don't lose a game in which we'll be favored by double digits.

All we need is a split against UNC and in the road games against Syracuse and VT to almost certainly win the ACC and lock up the #1 overall seed. If we can't accomplish that, K can go fuck himself.

Nah, if we split with UNC and split the Cuse/VT games, that gives us three losses. We'd still need Virginia to drop one to get the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Otherwise we'd get the 2 seed, with UNC the 3 seed which would fucking suck. I hate playing those cocksuckers three times in one season.

We need Virginia to lose another one somehow (and I don't trust any of the teams remaining on their schedule).

 

[DurhamSon]

I'm going to kick a goddamned baby if we finish 2nd at 15-3 because not a single other piece of dog shit coach could beat UVA in 16 tries. Especially since UVA did the same goddamned thing in 2015, and laid the fuck down the next two years with 6 and 7 losses while UNC took the league with more losses than we'll have now or four years ago.

Going 16-2 or 17-1 with our schedule is much more impressive an accomplishment than '99 Duke's 16-0.

 

[Devilsforlife]

It's a lot more important to win this game than I thought: UNC has 3 absolute walks in the park remaining with home contests against FSU, Cuse and BC. And I don't think Clemson is actually going to challenge them in the one other road game they have left.

Baking in the coinflip of a loss at one of @Cuse/@VT, if we don't win on Wednesday we're gonna have to go into Chapel Hill for what's likely a game to decide the regular season, and potentially letting UNC leap onto the one-line (lazy narrative will be: how can Duke get a 1 seed over a team that swept them!). On the other hand, we win and UNC is realistically locked out of the reg season title (and 1 seed in the ACCT) plus has no chance of getting a 1 seed in the NCAAT


So for fucks sake, don't lose a game in which we'll be favored by double digits.

All we need is a split against UNC and in the road games against Syracuse and VT to almost certainly win the ACC and lock up the #1 overall seed. If we can't accomplish that, K can go fuck himself.

Nah, if we split with UNC and split the Cuse/VT games, that gives us three losses. We'd still need Virginia to drop one to get the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Otherwise we'd get the 2 seed, with UNC the 3 seed which would fucking suck. I hate playing those cocksuckers three times in one season.

We need Virginia to lose another one somehow (and I don't trust any of the teams remaining on their schedule).

They still have to play @ VT, Syracuse and Louisville. I expect they'll drop one of those games, but given how the rest of the ACC tends to fare against UVA, maybe I shouldn't.

 

[rome8180]

This is the fastest team Roy has ever had. They may not have the post players for their secondary break, but chances are they will still be much better at running than us.

ETA: That was a response to Slap's post, which I accidentally didn't quote.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[physicsfactor]

This is the fastest team Roy has ever had. They may not have the post players for their secondary break, but chances are they will still be much better at running than us.

ETA: That was a response to Slap's post, which I accidentally didn't quote.

Yeah, I’m not worried about UNC’s bigs dominating on secondary break posts. I’m worried about layups and transition 3s.

 

[physicsfactor]

UNC is #3 in offensive possession length and has a top 10 offense. I don't care what their bigs are doing this year. Running has seemed to fare well for them anyway. Hopefully the UNC at Duke atmosphere will get White playing too fast and loose when they try to run.

Fortunately, UNC doesn't have a playmaker like Pinson to put in the middle of Duke's zone if K is forced to go to it. It'll be likely be Maye in there, and he's almost strictly a turn and shoot guy in the middle of a zone.

 

[best4heisman]

I feel like a combined Reddish-Barrett pants-shitting is the main thing we have to worry about. If they combine to shoot like 3-18 from three we could be in trouble. Besides that, I trust our defense to at least do a reasonably good job, and Zion is going to kill them.

 

[physicsfactor]

Does Maye flop a lot like typical UNC white bigs? That could be worrisome for Zion if Maye plays it that way. Or will UNC try Little on Zion and Kenny Williams on Barrett?

 

[uncy12]

Maye doesn’t really flop. He just doesn’t play defense. Mayes shot selection also worries me. He’s going to attempt to post up on Zion which is going to be comical

 

[Si6hts]

 

[physicsfactor]

Oh good! Duke never gets lit up by guys who grew up Duke fans!

 

[rome8180]

This all rests on Tre Jones being Texas Tech Tre Jones and not NC State Tre Jones.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

UNC has a worse than usual 2P% D (72nd, its worst since 2015). Duke really needs to take the ball to the basket- Barrett and Zion should have no problem doing that. As others have said, the bombing threes approach on offense, while normally appropriate for this matchup, feels like the way to lose here.

Really, this last stretch of games is going to see Duke take a lot of threes though. UNC is 261st in defensive three point rate (where being ranked 1st means the fewest rate of threes surrendered) and Miami is 214th (which probably increases if they zone as SMTTEM noted). And then Syracuse is 347th and VTech is 351st, so a shit ton of threes are going up by Duke in those games.

 

[dukeboy911]

Yep. If Tre has a good game defensively, we win pretty comfortably IMO.

 

[rome8180]

Zion at the very least seems to understand that he shouldn't take more than 2-3 three pointers a game. I think we'll see plenty of drives.

Also, a dialed-in and poorly guarded Barrett might just hit six threes again and put any worry to bed.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Much of this list has to do with an increase in 3pt rate across the sport generally, as Gasaway says, but it’s accurate to say Duke will be facing two teams back to back that are among the “best” in history in getting the opponent to take 3s. I’m sure Duke will have hot games shooting the ball and be just fine.