Game Thread [2019-20] #7 Duke at North Carolina

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

When UNC plays Duke, they’re a different team. Expecting a dominant performance is silly, given that it never happens in this rivalry. Duke survived the toughest test of its season tonight.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Wait, you're "spoiled" if you don't enjoy drastically underperforming for 36 minutes and then pulling victory out of your ass? If you don't enjoy watching basic mistake after mistake being made, as if the team has learned absolutely nothing since the beginning of the season and in fact forgotten half of what they know? If you don't enjoy the harbinger of uglier things to come? If that had been a 15 seed instead of a sub-NIT team, we would have lost by 20 tonight.

It's Duke-UNC I really don't understand why you're getting so hot over this. We did the same thing at home versus a clearly inferior UNC team in 2015, survived and won in OT and went onto win the National Championship. I'm not saying we're going to win it all but sweating over this is rather pointless. These games are always close, and the quality of the teams and where they are played seemingly never matters.

The two Duke-UNC games, particularly the first one, is always its own thing. It really has nothing to do with the season as a whole, because it's basically it's a mini-Superbowl game. Duke has pulled two massive upsets at the Dean Dome in the first game twice in the last 10 years. It doesn't mean anything. It's just Duke-UNC, I think you're looking too much into it.

If we play like ass again versus FSU then fine have at it. If you can't enjoy a win versus UNC in which we had two buzzer beaters in their building I don't really understand the point of being a fan is.

 

[DUKERULES14]

This was simply a game where normal didn't happen, Roy even ran out of timeouts.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

#2 PG in 2022.

 

[DurhamSon]

Some of you are in for a reality check when Louisville beats UNC by 25 points two weeks from now.

 

[DrKlahn]

Line started at Duke -8.5, has moved to Duke -6.5. If it moves another point or 2, it’s tempting to lay those points. The first Duke-UNC game is always the crazy one, and I’d love to see how favorites have fared ATS since, to pick a random year, 2001. I expect Duke to play nervous and UNC to play well. Duke could still win in that scenario, even cover, but it won’t be pretty. Could be a game like 2010 with that nasty MP2 reverse dunk.

Going back to this, I was able to pull up spreads going back to the 2006-07 season (14 seasons). The favorite is 5-9 ATS with 5 outright losses. That’s actually a little bit better than I expected, but it makes more sense when you consider that the 5 wins were all in games expected to be within 2 possessions: 1.5, 2.5, 5.5, 2, 4. There have been six games with a spread of -6 or higher and the favorite is 0-6 in those games with 3 outright losses (and two very fortunate OT wins). Here is the full data if you’re interested:

	Proj	Actual	Favorite
2020	Duke -7.5	Duke +2	Lost
2019	Duke -10	UNC +16	Lost (O)
2018	UNC -1.5	UNC +4	Won
2017	Duke -2.5	Duke +8	Won
2016	UNC -8.5	Duke +1	Lost (O)
2015	Duke -8.5	Duke +2 (OT)	Lost
2014	Duke -2	UNC +8	Lost (O)
2013	Duke -10.5	Duke +5	Lost
2012	UNC -6	Duke +1	Lost (O)
2011	Duke -10.5	Duke +6	Lost
2010	Duke -5.5	Duke +10	Won
2009	UNC -2	UNC +14	Won
2008	UNC -4.5	Duke +11	lost (O)
2007	UNC -4	UNC +6	Won

 

[DrKlahn]

I'm not going to do a fancy chart for it but over the same time period in the second game, the favorite is 8-4-1 with 3 outright losses. Heavy favorites covered in every game except for the push (2017) and the Hansbrough/Henderson game, which Duke covered by a half point.

 

[torontoduke]

If you have time/interest go to Duke MBB Twitter. They have a thread where fans submitted their own videos from the game/watching at home.

Very nice.

 

[Bullettoothtony]

If you have time/interest go to Duke MBB Twitter. They have a thread where fans submitted their own videos from the game/watching at home.

Very nice.

Here it is. Thanks for the heads-up td.

 

[Inveigle]

The best images from last night's game are the Chump Hill faithful hanging their heads and filing out of the Dean Dome, uhh, Tre-Moore Dome, their faces are priceless

 

[aiw]

These are always the best. The best one every was the one with that old lady making the O face when Mason dunked on them.

 

[aiw]

The pic of the shot here is even better. AOC and Tre celebrating before the ball is all the way through the rim

 

[aiw]

The 10 most absurd parts of a Duke-UNC overtime thriller for the ages

Duke's win probability dipped below 4 percent multiple times. Tre Jones saved them with an incredible free throw tactic that he'd practiced. And Wendell Moore beat North Carolina in improbable fashion.

sports.yahoo.com

Great article

 

[skins]

 

[mkvl04]

Some of you are in for a reality check when Louisville beats UNC by 25 points two weeks from now.

I'm not sure what the point is behind this comment...

FSU beat Louisville didn't they, ON THE ROAD? By how much?

How much did FSU beat NC by? At HOME?

 

[physicsfactor]

Exactly. In your fucking face @DurhamSon

 

[Slap the Floor]

This will forever be unbelievable.

 

[bdotling]

I'm watching the in-bounds play where the ball went off Platek out of bounds and Bilas kept calling for a foul on Moore. Keeling was wide open immediately as that play broke but for whatever reason Garrison didn't pass to him. Maybe didn't see him until too late where Goldwire cut off that angle of Keeling and Cole. Joey didn't follow him over and was waiting for Pierce to come over to him and then break. Must have known the exact inbound play they were running

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Without a thread for FSU game yet wasn’t sure there’s a better place for this random thought - but it just occurred to me how huge tomorrow’s game is for ACC seeding purposes. We gotta find a way to win that one.

 

[torontoduke]

Concerned about the perimeter D. They looked awful at containing the dribble drive lastnight. I can understand how tough it is to keep Anthony in front of you, but UNC's weak backcourt players were getting into the lane routinely