Game Thread [2022-23] ACC Tournament

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[Devilsforlife]

The bottom half of the bracket is much easier, ugh.

 

[aiw]

Draw kinda sucks, but we're rolling.

 

[Pantone287]

I don't mind this bracket at all for us. Mainly, no UNC on our side, but also get #68 Pitt instead of #52 and scary matchup State in the first game.

Not getting UVA is a bad break, I guess, but it's not like Miami is great (#38), and I wouldn't mind seeing how we look in a revenge game.

I also think there's a non-zero chance BC takes out UNC. I couldn't name a single player on their roster or even tell you if we've played them, but they are 3-1 in their last four and 7-5 in their last 12.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Guessing Duke will be the favorite with 3-1 odds.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Pitt is a bubble team too. If we lose to them it hurts UNC.

 

[DrKlahn]

In Greensboro, it’s always good not to have to play Carolina or State until a final. That will be a wild Thursday night, assuming they don’t cough it up on Wednesday.

 

[DrKlahn]

The contrast between Duke and Pitt playing in front of 6,000 Duke fans and 1,000 others in the afternoon vs. State/UNC fans rooting for each other to get bounced in the evening session is going to be striking.

 

[childress22]

That's a good point. I'll be at the Thursday morning session, and I hadn't even considered that State /UNC being in the evening might mean a lot less of those folks around in the a.m.

 

[DrKlahn]

I haven't been to an ACC Tournament in a while, but I don't think it's like the old days when fans would go to all the games until they got knocked out, and sometimes even after.

 

[childress22]

I'm also glad Clemson is not in our half of the bracket. They were really struggling 3-4 weeks ago, but have found a good groove offensively. They've posted some very good adjusted offensive efficiency numbers in their last six games, topping 120 four times, including 147 in their 25-point blowout of State.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I just like not playing on Wednesday. At Duke Forum, less Duke games to worry about is always preferable.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

So yeah UNC probably has to beat BC, UVA, and winner of State/VT to get in the First Four. If they win the whole tournament I suspect they are a 9 or 10 seed.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is the favorite. Odds via Circa LV:

Duke +240 to win/-300 not to win
27%

Miami +300/-380
23%

Virginia +375/-485
19%

Clemson +600/-840
12%

UNC +750/-1140
10%

NC State +1300/-2200
6%

Pitt +1500/-2600
5%

VT +4000/-6600
2%

Wake +4000/-6600
2%

Syracuse +7500/-12500
1%

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Kenpom chances:

 

[DrKlahn]

Makes sense. Given the tournament location, I would rather have Duke’s run than any other team in the top 7. And KP would favor Duke over Miami in a hypothetical semifinal.

 

[rome8180]

I would far rather have UNC's path.

 

[DrKlahn]

I wouldn’t want to play Virginia in front of NC State fans, and then NC State in front of NC State fans, and then Duke or Miami

 

[uncy12]

Matchup wise this is the best path UNC could have. BC’s Quentin post has a bad ankle status for acc tournament is uncertain, Virginia is not very good. Miami Pitt and Duke are all better. Nc State could be a pain in the ass but deal with that If it comes to that. Avoiding Pitt, Duke, Miami is as good of a path as UNC could ask for

 

[rome8180]

I wouldn’t want to play Virginia in front of NC State fans, and then NC State in front of NC State fans, and then Duke or Miami

Duke theoretically has to play Pitt-Miami-UVA. Those are three best teams in the conference. And the first two are very tough matchups for Duke.

Pitt was the 1 seed just a few days ago, and Duke has them as their first game. I don't think the fans in attendance matter nearly as much as the quality of the teams.