Game Thread [2022-23] Kansas (at Indianapolis)

[rome8180]

I know it's not this simple, but Duke has been better so far this season. If you start digging into all the numbers, the only reason to favor Kansas is that algorithms had Kansas higher in the preseason based on nothing.

Duke:



Kansas:

 

[rome8180]

I know this is a dumb way to look at it, but Duke is elite in far more categories. I'm ignoring adjusted efficiency, since those are made-up preseason numbers, and point distribution, since that's more about shot diet (and taking a lot of twos isn't necessarily a good thing).

 

[physicsfactor]

So basically Duke’s entire offense is predicated on rebounding half of its own misses.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Sagarin has Duke ahead of Kansas by less than a point, and that's always going to be more reliable than anything else. It was flipped before the last Duke game registered. But Sagarin is also heavily weighted toward his own preseason ratings early in the season, which would take into account Whitehead playing most of the season, so I was expecting Kansas to be favored with Whitehead out. Maybe he just doesn't matter that much. I hope he does.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line moved. Kansas favored by 1.5 on FanDuel, 2 on DraftKings, 2 at most places. It could be that the books were thinking there was a chance Whitehead would play, but I think it was just a bad early line put out by FanDuel.

 

[rome8180]

So basically Duke’s entire offense is predicated on rebounding half of its own misses.

Well, it's also predicated on not having to score much because of elite defense.

What I'm saying is we're 2015 Kentucky.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is now favored again. -1 or -1.5. Reminiscent of Duke/Wisconsin title game odds shifts, with two teams that are much, much worse.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Seems it’s gotten up to -2 in some places.

PRETTY PLEASE, BLUE DEVILS

 

[Pantone287]

I'm looking forward to the game, which is very bizarre. Possibly Jon Scheyer's greatest achievement yet.

 

[Pantone287]

I'm concerned about Proctor, though. McCullar might be the most difficult matchup (in terms of a big, athletic, defender) he'll face all year, and is the exact type of player I think he'll still struggle against this year. I think we either see him knock down a few early in a spot up shooter role, optimistically, or we don't and it becomes a Blakes/Grandison game.

 

[Pantone287]

Ultimately it probably comes down to the Mitchell/Dick matchup, though. If Mitchell can hold his own, I like our chances.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I'm concerned about Proctor, though. McCullar might be the most difficult matchup (in terms of a big, athletic, defender) he'll face all year, and is the exact type of player I think he'll still struggle against this year. I think we either see him knock down a few early in a spot up shooter role, optimistically, or we don't and it becomes a Blakes/Grandison game.

JohnTDD said Proctor>Roach

 

[Pantone287]

BTW, Rowe says Freaky Riqey is still "a week out". I was secretly hopeful the line movement meant something there.

 

[rome8180]

I'm concerned about Proctor, though. McCullar might be the most difficult matchup (in terms of a big, athletic, defender) he'll face all year, and is the exact type of player I think he'll still struggle against this year. I think we either see him knock down a few early in a spot up shooter role, optimistically, or we don't and it becomes a Blakes/Grandison game.

JohnTDD said Proctor>Roach

I think he will be eventually. I just doubt we see that until February at the earliest, if at all this year.

 

[rome8180]

I can't believe we have to play a game we could potentially lose tonight. This is awful.

 

[best4heisman]

I'm concerned about Proctor, though. McCullar might be the most difficult matchup (in terms of a big, athletic, defender) he'll face all year, and is the exact type of player I think he'll still struggle against this year. I think we either see him knock down a few early in a spot up shooter role, optimistically, or we don't and it becomes a Blakes/Grandison game.

JohnTDD said Proctor>Roach

I think he will be eventually. I just doubt we see that until February at the earliest, if at all this year.

I think Roach is more of bucket-getter with some playmaking limitations whereas Proctor seems like a guy who can create good looks for teammates with consistency. Proctor's development will be key in figuring out what our ceiling is offensively.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

For as bad as Proctor has shot it, he’s done a really good job setting his teammates up with good opportunities. I’ve been surprised with that part of his game.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

As Scheyer heads toward the first loss of his head coaching career, Vegas is giving Duke a 57-58% chance to win. This has been a relatively dramatic shift on no major news, from Kansas as high as -2 to Duke now as high as -2.5. I don't recall many main spreads or moneylines that have moved that much based on nothing.

 

[Bullettoothtony]

Over the summer I was sure I'd give JS a grace period.

I changed my mind. I've got firescheyer.com queued up, and if we lose, it goes live 10 seconds later.

 

[Hammy-O]

“Game”

-me when Kansas goes up 2-0 on an alley oop