Game Thread [2022-23] Oral Roberts (NCAA Tournament R64)

[Grit]

If they’re appropriately factoring in what % the individual player typically shoots on each type of shot from each location with a hand within X feet of the ball at its release point or whatever, then I don’t think there is any eye test to explain away the numbers.

I would question whether this site/company actually does all of that, though, or if it’s just very basic programming, like Whitehead shoots Y% from 3 this season, so he should’ve scored (3PA * Y%) points on his 3PA last night. It must be a really advanced operation to collect all that data and spit it out for every game so quickly. I’m skeptical because I’m pretty engrossed in this stuff as a degenerate gambler and I’ve never heard of anyone paying for a subscription to this thing.

This perfectly words my perspective of it outside of the gambling part.

It's not that I'm arguing it was a 23 point game, but SQ had it as one point away from saying that the quality volume of Duke's shots was identical to that of Oral Roberts. I don't believe that, and I've never seen any backup data/white paper esque thing for their stats having merit as better reflections of game outcome than actual game score.

 

[DurhamSon]

It's more sophisticated than the latter for sure, as there is an element to the quality of the look, one could say, when you read the appended breakdowns describing various levels of openness. While I also doubt they are getting that granular of Synergy measurements, I imagine they are using something between that and none at all.

As stated before I'm not so much questioning their open-shot calculations as their contested look numbers, as those are going to be affected much more by a disparity in opponent strength sample size. As said I think something like a 10-12 point win would have been the median outcome, which is still really good against ORU considering we didn't play our A-game

 

[physicsfactor]

I watched the first half again without my emotions tied up in it. ORU missed a LOT of open threes and layups. They had like five shots rim out in the first five minutes. Not all of their layups were bothered by Lively either. I 100% buy this, and I think you guys are letting rooting interest influence your impressions here.

I can’t speak for the others, but I don’t think so for myself. I watched after the game had ended, knowing the final score. No emotions attached. I might buy ORU could have score a few more, but Duke being lucky to win what should have been a 1-pt win is hilariously off to me given what I saw.

 

[physicsfactor]

I'm okay with a couple people disagreeing with me on this one, but the fact that it's the majority of you is really disappointing. I thought this board was a little less susceptible to clear bias.

Since you called out another poster for using “Eh” I’m going to call this out as coming across a little arrogant. We could just as easily say that if you find that most people are disagreeing with you, perhaps you should reevaluate your own opinion. Majority isn’t always right, of course, but your paragraph makes it seem like you start with the assumption that you’re correct and therefore there must be some bias at play for all the others who disagree.

I don’t think I you’re an arrogant person, but that’s how that paragraph came across to me.

 

[LastHearth]

Even wide open shots are not the same in a game where the opponents can't guard you, and a game where you are being challenged and getting blocked quite often.
You're going to rush your shots, because you don't know if somebody will fly out of nowhere and challenge you.
That's why ORU missed "open" shots, they were rushing even those shots.
There is a reason why ORU's EFG%, which is 13th in the country even after yesterday's game at 55.4%, is 46.3% and 200th in the country against Bart top 100, and 44.2% and 196th, against Bart top 50.

And if you normalize that as their expected shooting percentage for yesterday's game, there is no way their expected score from those shots is 71.