Game Thread [2023-24] NCAA Tournament

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[dukeboy911]

unfortunate that this season has devolved into just making the second weekend, but whatever. abc and uconn.

 

[aiw]

Wisconsin kenpom 80-75 over JMU

 

[rome8180]

I like our first two rounds. I like that we'll be in NY too. I don't like UNC's path unfortunately. I think Alabama gets them or they make it out of the region. Alabama will probably lose in the 1st round or something.

 

[rome8180]

UConn got fucking screwed. They got the best 2, the best 3, and a team that should never have been a 4. Setting up real well for a UNC-Houston title game.

 

[aiw]

 

[DrKlahn]

They really put the four best conference tournament winners in the same region, didn’t they.

Surprised that UConn didn’t get one of the shaky blue bloods (Duke, Kansas, Kentucky) in the Sweet 16 round. Instead, they just gave them all the best teams.

 

[aiw]

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I like our first two rounds. I like that we'll be in NY too. I don't like UNC's path unfortunately. I think Alabama gets them or they make it out of the region. Alabama will probably lose in the 1st round or something.

It’s the toughest 2nd path. Prob the weakest third round path. Elite 8 is theoretically tough (esp in a semi road game) but can Arizona get there?

 

[rome8180]

I like our first two rounds. I like that we'll be in NY too. I don't like UNC's path unfortunately. I think Alabama gets them or they make it out of the region. Alabama will probably lose in the 1st round or something.

It’s the toughest 2nd path. Prob the weakest third round path. Elite 8 is theoretically tough (esp in a semi road game) but can Arizona get there?

I don't trust any team that Duke beat (Baylor) or should have beaten (Arizona). By definition, if Duke played them well, they must suck.

 

[rome8180]

I really do like the Alabama matchup though. UNC would probably lose the math battle in that one. I also like that Baylor and Zona both have top shelf coaches. Not sure on my opinion of Oats as an actual tactician. I think he's a great system coach, but not sure how flexible he is as an in-game coach.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I like our first two rounds. I like that we'll be in NY too. I don't like UNC's path unfortunately. I think Alabama gets them or they make it out of the region. Alabama will probably lose in the 1st round or something.

It’s the toughest 2nd path. Prob the weakest third round path. Elite 8 is theoretically tough (esp in a semi road game) but can Arizona get there?

I don't trust any team that Duke beat (Baylor) or should have beaten (Arizona). By definition, if Duke played them well, they must suck.

This a perfect post. 10/10

 

[aiw]

 

[childress22]

7:10 sounds way better than the late game.

 

[uncy12]

Obviously most don’t care about the first four and who gets left out but I’m curious why Virginia ended up in the field. They had absolutely zero business being in over some others. Who watched them against NC State while on the bubble and thought yup these guys belong in the tournament?

 

[Devilsforlife]

I don’t think there was a single neutral fan on this planet who wanted the Hoos in the field. Truly a baffling decision by the committee.

 

[DrKlahn]

My Final Four picks: UNC, Drake, James Madison, Samford

National Champion: Samford

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Good graph. Just wish they color coded by region. Looks like the worst seeding decision ever was a 10-seed who was better than any 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 this century. I think that 10-seed was Wichita State in 2017, Kenpom #8, with Landry Shamet and Austin Reaves (though Reaves didn’t contribute much as a freshman).

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Good graph. Just wish they included the seeds or some other way to distinguish each team’s potential path. West should be more upset-laden due to the parity, except the top 2 teams (Arizona and UNC) - they should roll. East a bloodbath. South a coronation for Houston.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Some fair values:

National Champion (top 10 likeliest)
UConn 17.4%
Houston 11.7%
Purdue 10.6%
Arizona 6.0%
Tennessee 5.4%
North Carolina 4.8%
Auburn 3.3%
Iowa State 2.4%
Kentucky 1.8%
Duke 1.2%

Duke to Advance
To R32 - 85.7%
To S16 - 54.6%
To E8 - 24.9%
To F4 - 11.3%

North Carolina to Advance
To S16 - 64.0%
To F4 - 17.7%