WELCOME TO 14 WATCH
After whatever happened last night (I was at a soccer game), I think it is safe to start scouting 14 seeds. Assuming that Duke is not banned from postseason play, they will be on the 3 line. I'm only going to focus on teams that have made it to the semifinals or better for now, as this will get very fluid.
ALREADY IN:
Morehead State (OVC): KP 112 (128Off/119Def). Projected as a 15 on bracketmatrix. This looks to be a dangerous opponent based on solid offensive/defensive rebounding & elite offensive/defensive 2pt%, but those numbers always need to be viewed with some skepticism due to the small conference. They are pretty big for a small conference team, with a 7-footer and guards that run 6'3" to 6'5". They have four seniors in the starting lineup, which I interpret as meaning 24-25 year olds. Would prefer to avoid.
IN FINALS TODAY:
UNC-Asheville (Big South): KP 155 (143Off/184Def). Projected as a 15 on bracketmatrix where they replace High Point, which would have been a dangerous opponent. One thing I note here is they are 14th nationally in drawing free throws while still being primarily a 3-point shooting team (30th nationally). So I guess teams that commit stupid and pointless fouls should be worried about them. They play Longwood (KP 168), which I think would probably be a 15-16 seed.
The other two finals today should have no impact on the 14 line.
IN SEMIFINALS TODAY:
Colgate (Patriot): KP 145 (206Off/107Def). Projected as a 15. This is a good 3 point shooting/3 point defense team that probably won't offer much else against a high major team, though they played Syracuse close in November. The rest of the Patriot teams would be 16-seeds.
Samford (Southern): KP 79 (57Off/129Def). Projected as a 13. OK, now we start to get serious. Samford is #8 nationally in eFG% and #14 nationally in forcing turnovers, which makes them the perfect "go on a tear" Cinderella team. With that said, they lost to Purdue by 53 and haven't exactly shown that their game translates against high major talent. I note that the brackets consistently have them on the 13 line. They play Virginia-slayer Furman today, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to keep an eye on Furman (KP 139) or Chattanooga (KP 137) in this spot.
Appalachian State (Sun Belt): KP 75 (138Off/29Def). Projected as a 13. If the NCAA wants to punish Duke for whatever transgressions it committed last night, they could do worse than to choose a 27-5 in-state squad that has already beaten Auburn. If the offense/defense splits were exactly the opposite, this would be a straight up Duke killer. But fortunately, the #4 eFG% and #2 FTR are defensive numbers. This team should get enough respect to get a 13 or even a 12.
James Madison (Sun Belt): KP 65 (68Off/70Def). Projected OUT on Bracketmatrix. This team, which appears on paper to be better than Virginia, does not even show up on mock brackets except as an alternative to App State. They beat Michigan State in November, and have lost only 3 times, 2 of them to App State. Would assume they get a 12-13.
Troy (Sun Belt): KP 129 (159Off/120Def). Revenge game?
