Player Derryck Thornton

[torontoduke]

yes!

 

[rome8180]

I wasn't around for it, but to those that were, how does this recruiting run compare to the run K was on in the late 90's, early 2000's?

I would think it's pretty comparable, right? I know people like to jerk off over the 1997 class, but I think this year's was at least as good and would have accomplished as much with more multi-year players. The 1999 class still has my vote for most productive when you consider what they accomplished in college and pros combined.

From a mere recruiting rankings standpoint, I imagine that era will be tough to beat. But we've now landed a top three player in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, and potentially will in 2015 and 2016.

 

[childress22]

I wasn't around for it, but to those that were, how does this recruiting run compare to the run K was on in the late 90's, early 2000's?

I would think it's pretty comparable, right? I know people like to jerk off over the 1997 class, but I think this year's was at least as good and would have accomplished as much with more multi-year players. The 1999 class still has my vote for most productive when you consider what they accomplished in college and pros combined.

From a mere recruiting rankings standpoint, I imagine that era will be tough to beat. But we've now landed a top three player in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, and potentially will in 2015 and 2016.

The turnover will have to give the edge to the current run, no? We're just bringing in so many more players, because they're staying for shorter periods of time.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Recruiting rankings are extremely disconnected from actual recruiting value these days, and recruiting value is not ranked by anyone. Comparing late 90s and now for recruiting classes is pretty much worthless. Devin Booker, for example, was not very valuable to his program compared to Grayson Allen after Allen's 3-4 years are over. Booker is slightly better for recruiting rankings. Probably safe to bet that Brandon Ingram will not be nearly as valuable as Luke Kennard, but Ingram will help recruiting rankings more. Coaches are targeting value (or at least they should be), not purely rankings. In the late 90s/early 00s, value and rankings were basically the same thing.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Comparing Thornton to other point guards nationally, it's hard to argue there are many in his vicinity when it comes to approach and ability to defend. His work ethic and desire to improve have also proven to be elite.

Offensively, Thornton sees the court very well and has a good balance of creating and scoring. Thornton can finish with both hands and while he's right-handed, sometimes you forget it because he finishes so well with his left. Thornton has an elite handle - especially his crossover - and has floaters with both hands. His body control is excellent and has improved with strength.

He's more comfortable with his midrange jumper than his three-point shot at this point and maybe the biggest improvement in his game over the last year has been his jumper; he's very good from midrange, and improving from three, a shot he's certainly capable of hitting consistently regardless.

Thornton has become elite for his age in pick and roll situations and is a very good passer in general. He is a natural leader and a strong communicator on the court; a kid that his peers gravitate towards.

With Thornton, Ingram and Jeter loving midrange jumpers in high school, next season will be the truest test of Duke's analytics slant. If we're running the same offense as UNC, it has all gone wrong.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Thornton high school stats, junior season (31 games):

29.6 minutes per game
17.0 points per game
48.1% 2pt shooting
33.8% 3pt shooting
71.1% ft shooting
19.0% 3pt rate
39.4% ft rate
6.2 assists per game
3.6 turnovers per game
1.7 assist/turnover ratio
2.3 steals per game
2.2 fouls per game

His 3pt shooting needs work, but accuracy will get a significant bump from playing in Duke's offense and not being the focus of defenses. The bump seems to happen without fail, minus some weird headcases. It's the drastic reservation in attempting 3s that worries me more, but a big factor in this could be that he can get to the rim at will in high school. Regardless, 3pt shooting is workable.

He takes way too many midrange jumpers based on these stats (the combined 3pt rate and ft rate is way lower than ideal). This is definitely fixable, but given his decent 2pt shooting, it's not a Josh Smith-like problem that absolutely needs to be fixed for him to be a functional player.

FT shooting is going to be a big ass on the team in general next season. Realistically, we're looking at Thornton/Jones/Ingram/Jefferson/Plumlee to start the season. Ingram shot 79% FT his senior year. That makes Ingram our FT ace, as none of the other four players hit the 72% mark last season. I think we will need Allen and Kennard to carry a bigger load going to the basket than most are expecting, or some of these other guys will need to be revelations from the line.

Assist/turnover ratio seems fine but not great. Not sure what a good assist/turnover ratio is for a top high school point guard. Joel Berry was at 2.2 in his senior year.

Steals are pretty good. Gary Payton Jr. averaged 3.4 steals per 40 minutes last season while leading the nation in steal percentage. Thornton was at 3.1 steals per 40 minutes.

 

[rhfarmer]

Recruiting rankings are extremely disconnected from actual recruiting value these days, and recruiting value is not ranked by anyone. Comparing late 90s and now for recruiting classes is pretty much worthless. Devin Booker, for example, was not very valuable to his program compared to Grayson Allen after Allen's 3-4 years are over. Booker is slightly better for recruiting rankings. Probably safe to bet that Brandon Ingram will not be nearly as valuable as Luke Kennard, but Ingram will help recruiting rankings more. Coaches are targeting value (or at least they should be), not purely rankings. In the late 90s/early 00s, value and rankings were basically the same thing.

These are all great points. I would add that there's so much hype around recruiting now, and (out of necessity) the expectations for recruits are far higher. Those Duke teams didn't start Magette or Battier in their freshman seasons, just to name 2 future NBA players who "waited their turn".

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Thornton high school stats, junior season (31 games):

29.6 minutes per game
17.0 points per game
48.1% 2pt shooting
33.8% 3pt shooting
71.1% ft shooting
19.0% 3pt rate
39.4% ft rate
6.2 assists per game
3.6 turnovers per game
1.7 assist/turnover ratio
2.3 steals per game
2.2 fouls per game

His 3pt shooting needs work, but accuracy will get a significant bump from playing in Duke's offense and not being the focus of defenses. The bump seems to happen without fail, minus some weird headcases. It's the drastic reservation in attempting 3s that worries me more, but a big factor in this could be that he can get to the rim at will in high school. Regardless, 3pt shooting is workable.

He takes way too many midrange jumpers based on these stats (the combined 3pt rate and ft rate is way lower than ideal). This is definitely fixable, but given his decent 2pt shooting, it's not a Josh Smith-like problem that absolutely needs to be fixed for him to be a functional player.

FT shooting is going to be a big ass on the team in general next season. Realistically, we're looking at Thornton/Jones/Ingram/Jefferson/Plumlee to start the season. Ingram shot 79% FT his senior year. That makes Ingram our FT ace, as none of the other four players hit the 72% mark last season. I think we will need Allen and Kennard to carry a bigger load going to the basket than most are expecting, or some of these other guys will need to be revelations from the line.

Assist/turnover ratio seems fine but not great. Not sure what a good assist/turnover ratio is for a top high school point guard. Joel Berry was at 2.2 in his senior year.

Steals are pretty good. Gary Payton Jr. averaged 3.4 steals per 40 minutes last season while leading the nation in steal percentage. Thornton was at 3.1 steals per 40 minutes.

Allen is potentially great though and he may start (or get starters' minutes). He also has a high FT rate. I would think Kennard would be good too. I think I would be starting one of Kennard or Allen, because the lineup you have there seems to offensively challenged. I kind of think you need one of Allen or Kennard on the court at any time for our offense to work.

 

[2001Dukechamps]

When Kyrie decides to become a coach, he'll be a Calipari-esque recruiter. He's already a better talent evaluator than Nate James.

 

[rhfarmer]

IT factor is like eye test, except with ESP

 

[2001Dukechamps]

If all goes well...
Kyrie's eye test >>> Evidence that suggests that Derryck may in fact have the poorest jump shot we've seen from an elite guard coming in since DeMarcus Nelson.

Unfortunately, at the moment I can't shake the visceral feeling of teams finally viewing the strategy of sagging off/going under screens when defending our starting PG as a viable option.

 

[childress22]

If all goes well...
Kyrie's eye test >>> Evidence that suggests that Derryck may in fact have the poorest jump shot we've seen from an elite guard coming in since DeMarcus Nelson.

Well, there was that year a freshman named Cook shot 40% from the field and 25% beyond the arc. But he wasn't counted on to the degree that Thornton will be.

 

[rome8180]

Was Cook a poor shooter in high school though?

 

[skins]

I always thought Cook was more of an undersized 2 guard in high school.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I'm using this site for Thornton's stats:
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/derryck ... -stats.htm

I have him at 48.6% eFG and 53.3% true shooting in his HS junior season.

Comparisons for context:
Tyus Jones (freshman) - 48.9% eFG and 57.5% TS
Jerian Grant (senior) - 53.6% eFG and 59.2% TS
Kyrie Irving (freshman) - 61.5% eFG and 69.7% TS
Sean Dockery (career) - 51.1% eFG and 53.8% TS
Gary Payton Jr. (junior transfer) - 52.5% eFG and 54.7% TS

It would be nice for Thornton to put up Dockery's career shooting numbers as a freshman while playing elite defense. Payton Jr. had a defensive box plus-minus of 7.9 and defensive rating of 86.2, each of which I'm going to assume was the best mark by a mile for any guard in any power conference. I think Thornton is going to have to provide defensive value not quite in that ballpark but somewhere in that universe to warrant 30+ minutes, if Kennard and Allen prove they can run an offense.

Aaron Craft's freshman defensive numbers - 5.3 DBPM and 91.9 defensive rating. That seems more reasonable to expect from Thornton.

 

[rome8180]

Man, those two games I watched where he made everything he took must have been a big outlier.

 

[DurhamSon]

I'm not worried about his three point shooting for some reason.

Rivers and Justise improved theirs by a decent amount and a hell of a lot, respectively. Kyrie was also a stud. Think Jabari at least played to par. Tyus was, well he was a stud in high school and obviously it carried over.

Only shooter who got worse was... Matt Jones? lol

 

[deeyoukayeee]

Duhon left his shot in Louisiana upon graduating from HS - never seen anything like it. But yeah, as long as he isn't calling his number too often from long range at the expense of Grayson/Luke and maybe Matt/Brandon, it won't be an issue given the vast defensive upgrade and likely wash on penetration. Some of his TO numbers concern me, but I'd guess he'll dial that back with coaching.

 

[physicsfactor]

If all goes well...
Unfortunately, at the moment I can't shake the visceral feeling of teams finally viewing the strategy of sagging off/going under screens when defending our starting PG as a viable option.

Remember when Wisconsin kept doing that with Tyus?

 

[childress22]

We don't need Thornton to necessarily be a long-range shooter. We need him to be Ed Cota.