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Duke at Miami - Wed, Jan 23, 7:00pm ESPN

SeanMayTriedToEatMe

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Probably the biggest game of the ACC season.

011013-Durand-Scott-SW-PI_20130110221228471_660_320.JPG

Durand Scott (#1) leads the Hurricanes in scoring and will try to open up a 2-game lead over Duke in the ACC.

Miami is 13-3 having played the 8th strongest schedule.
Miami is 4-0 in the ACC, with road wins at Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Boston College, and a home win over Maryland.

Kenpom ratings:
#20 overall
#59 offense
#13 defense
#312 tempo

Notable results:
Lost at common opponent Florida Gulf Coast by 12 (Duke won by 21 at home).
Won vs #19 Michigan State at home by 8.
Lost vs #11 Arizona by 19 in Hawaii.
Won at common opponent Georgia Tech by 13 (Duke won by 16 at home).

Notable team rankings:
#6 foul% (they don't foul much)
#12 opponent FG%
#16 opponent 2pt%
#17 turnover% (they don't turn it over much)
#18 opponent FTA/FGA
#21 opponent eFG%
#219 opponent turnover% (they don't force many turnovers)
#231 OReb%
#241 FT%
#291 opponent 3ptA/FGA (they allow lots of 3pt attempts)
#307 assists/FGM

Starters:
PG Shane Larkin, 5-11 176, sophomore
SG Durand Scott, 6-5 203, senior
SF Trey McKinney Jones, 6-5 220, senior
PF Kenny Kadji, 6-11 242, senior
C Julian Gamble, 6-10 250, senior

Bench:
G Rion Brown, 6-6 200, junior

Best players:
Durand Scott: 35.0 min, 13.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.9 stl, 46.8% fg, 31.0% 3pt, 70.6% ft, 22% Usg, 107 ORtg, 37% FTRate, 1.4 Ast/TO, 3.4% Stl
Kenny Kadji: 31.1 min, 12.6 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.6 blk, 44.5% fg, 33.3% 3pt, 62.5% ft, 24% Usg, 100 ORtg, 5.8% Blk

As much as Duke is hurt by not having Kelly, Miami is arguably hurt more by not having Reggie Johnson, since Miami is one of the few teams that liked to use a shorter rotation than Duke liked to use. Kenny Kadji being forced to play center for half the game could cause some problems for Mason defensively (Kadji loves to shoot 3s, averaging almost 4 attempts per game) but also could allow Mason to get Kadji into foul trouble. Kadji shot 49% fg and 42% 3pt last season with almost the same usage as this season, so either he has become a worse shooter as senior or he is due to breakout, and no better time than against Duke at home. Rion Brown has been Miami's only bench player who has gotten any meaningful minutes; losing Bishop Daniels and Melvin Johnson (both left the program) was another unfortunate blow to Miami on top of Johnson's injury.
 
Miami doesn't go to Virginia, so besides games at Duke and at NC State, their path to the ACC Tournament 1-seed is clear. That's 2 losses. If Duke wants to win the regular season of its own weak conference outright, let alone get the overall #1 seed in the NCAAs, Duke should probably try very hard to win this game.
 
This is one of the better teams Miami has fielded in several seasons. With big ole Reggie in the lineup they could get multiple wins in the NCAA tournament.

One of the good hires by an ACC school in the last few years.
 
There are 2 points in this thread that I completely agree with:

1 - this is a very big game for Duke wrt winning the ACC regular season. Miami has a few guys that are tough matchups for us. If Duke can pull this road win out, I think it bodes very well for the team's future. The game is a useful barometer for how we can move forward with the new lineup.

2 - UM's hiring of Jim L was a great hire indeed. He is a really good coach.

Thanks for posting the preview.

Go Duke
 
Amile must stay out of foul trouble while continuing to bring his aggressive style. Is this a game where MP3 would be an asset (guard Gamble)?
 
Kadji killed us last year and that was with Kelly, who is pretty much the same player. I expect the same thing again this year.
 
I love the matchups

Cook V. Larkin
Seth v. Scott

should be a good one. I think MP2 could have a big game if he's focused and hitting shots around the basket.
 
This is a huge game. If they had Reggie, I wouldn't take us in a bet (with Kelly out).
 
marleyboy4945 said:
I love the matchups

Cook V. Larkin
Seth v. Scott

should be a good one. I think MP2 could have a big game if he's focused and hitting shots around the basket.
Scott could be a handful due to his strength and ability to finish.
 
Opening line is Duke by 2.5. If you believe in Sagarin, Kelly is worth about 1.5-2 points more to Duke than Johnson is to Miami.
 
Yeah, I'm worried. Z-rating has us winning by four, but that's based on numbers largely generated with Kelly. Of course, Miami generated some of their numbers with Reggie, but they've been without him for longer.
 
You know how we bitch all the time about teams getting a week to prepare for Duke? Well, this time we got the week. Duke by 12, or thereabouts.
 
Miami got a week off before this game as well. That's weird for both teams to have a week off coming into this game.
 
That is true, but they live in Miami man. No way they're mentally ready after a week of partying.
 
An important game...gotta come out with a win. I hope the UM roster spent the last 24 hours under a cloud of illegal smoke, and will be a bit sluggish between 7 - 9 pm
 

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